John Harms received this contribution from the world’s greatest postmaster and all-round sportsman, George Grossek, formerly of the Westgarth Newsagency and Australia Post outlet. These days, George develops his footy insights in his role as a green coat with the MCC…
Hello John
Here is my analysis of the chances of each team to win the premiership this year from watching over 40 games at the MCG.
Adelaide
Finished on top and have every line covered with no apparent weaknesses. Their point of difference is their potent forward line although Isak Rankine will be sorely missed. They can cover him with a similar player but will miss his explosiveness around the ground.
Geelong
Finished second and solid on most lines but rely on Jeremy Cameron up forward. I have seen them shut down by a side a couple of times. Their Achilles Heel is their ruck and their supporters at the G are looking forward to Rowan Marshall heading to the Cattery next year. In 2022, Stanley held his own with help from Hawkins up forward and I don’t see him getting that type of support this year. I have yet to see a Grand Final won where the winners were smashed in the ruck. For the Cats to win Stanley will have to have a September to remember.
Brisbane
Played the best two games I have seen this year. Amazing against Hawthorn and too powerful for Collingwood. However, they have been inconsistent over the season. If the good Brisbane turns up no one can get close to them. Injuries have brought them back a bit but they are strong on every line.
Collingwood
Early in the season they literally cut the opposition to shreds with pace and precision. However, it looks like they have hit the wall so the pre-finals bye will benefit them most. Best chance of making Grand Final is to win this week because I can’t see them winning three in a row if they lose this week. Have been one tall down and it really hurt them against Fremantle.
GWS
Another team who have been hit by injuries but not a team I saw at the G. My pick for the flag at the start of the season, their finals hopes rest on the return of Jesse Hogan to be able to win four in a row. Doubt they will be able to win the premiership but expect them to beat the Hawks in the first week of the Finals.
Fremantle
They have strength on every line and I rate their list alongside Adelaide and Brisbane. Fremantle’s finals campaign rests on how they react to playing finals footy. Their last-round win over the Western Bulldogs should give them confidence. Their game is solid and with the two-pronged rucks finally clicking they are the team outside the top four that could make the Grand Final.
Gold Coast Suns
In Round 3, they played in the worst match I have seen, against Melbourne, where the skill levels were abysmal from both sides with Melbourne even worse. Witts in the ruck and Rowell, Anderson and Miller around the ball are the equal of all the other finalists. The question mark is their defence and forward line. If King is held quiet then they struggle. Still don’t know how the pulverised the Lions a few short weeks ago. Cannot see them beating Fremantle let alone the Premiership.
Hawthorn
For Hawthorn to win the Premiership they must avoid Brisbane because they cannot compete with them. Last round flattered them because had the Lions kicked straight they would have lost by 10 goals. They could beat GWS but to win four in a row against these quality teams would be a surprise.
My Finals ratings are as follows:
- Brisbane
- Adelaide
- Fremantle
- Geelong
- Collingwood
- GWS
- Hawthorn
- Gold Coast
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Hey George, I’m also one of those “green coats” that JTH mentioned, but we both know that they are blue and orange coats these days (unless of course you are a supervisor, in which case, aye aye sir). Fingers crossed for a good possie on GF day.
I hope Geelong gets up this week so that we have at least one shift on Prelim Final weekend, but Brisbane can still get to the big one if they lose this week.
I reckon that Carlton was the team that coincided with my shifts the most, so I didn’t see much good footy those weeks (although there are some that would say that a bad Carlton is good for footy, or at least headlines), but one of those was the game where they beat the Cats, so who knows?
I saw that Dees v Suns game as a paying spectator and you could tell from there that Melbourne was in trouble.
And lastly, Go Crows.
George
I think you should follow up with an updated prediction based on what this entertaining first week has served up. What a classic four games.