AFL Round 9 preview: Sacrificial lamb to the slaughter

Greetings All,

The saga finally gets a scalp – but really just the bleeding obvious.  Robson copped it in the neck for what he didn’t know – how will St Jimmy and Fr Bomber be treated when they theoretically had their hands on the wheel and either knew what was going on or chose not to know!  Then we have Buddy in the news for his late night exploits, a perfect example of the dual standards in the game.  The Hawks not exactly condoning his behaviour but very satisfied with the “professional” manner in how he dealt with the issue.  But there he was out late, clearly on the gas and making a scene – last week Essendon gave Courtney Dempsey a week off for being out drinking – but not drunk and not misbehaving.  Might be handy being a free agent at the end of the year!

Last week’s selection weren’t too bad only being let down by the Cats and the Bombers – would have been nice to know Stevie J wouldn’t be a starter but not sure it would have altered my selection anyway.  This week presents another plethora of seemingly one-sided contests, but interspersed with a couple of intriguing ones also.

Daisy Chained ($1.65) vs Bloodletting? ($2.52)

Either the Pie Army got their cheques this week or the market is swayed too much by last week.  One of the best ways to judge accurate form is too ignore the last performance or at least take it into context with the previous few games.  If these two were playing each other last weekend it would have probably been a flip of the coin game.  I see it as not much different this week – Collingwood were outstanding last week under all sorts of pressure, The Bloods let it get away, possibly further exposing a soft underbelly previously camouflaged by their soft early draw.  I don’t quite share the same view but do have some concerns with Sydney missing the flexibility provided by Alex Johnson and LRT.  The Pies though are still missing a number of their best 22 with the plight of Daisy exacerbating the situation.  One cannot doubt their resolve.  However this week I am with the resolve of the Swans who need to win to stamp themselves on the competition and show they can beat one of the contenders as they have thus failed against Geelong, Hawthorn and Freo.  The $2.50 is great value – however a loss for the Swans will really have them back in the pack.

Unplugged ($5.80) vs Late Scratchings ($1.20)

The last couple of weeks seem to have unplugged the Power and they are up against the Cats smarting from their first defeat.  I reckon part of the unplugging is a bit of tiredness in their young tyros – they will get no break against the seasoned Cats.  Geelong to win.

 

Nic Nat No ($21) vs The Mighty Ducks ($1.04)

West Coast shut down talk of a Nic Nat trade faster than you shut down a stolen credit card!  A great Sheedy deflection instead of a reflection of how poor the Giants were at home.  They spruiked themselves for the Adelaide game but were torn apart.  No need for the theatrics from Shuey and Selwood this week – the Eagles to go above the ledger.

 

Simon Templar Returns ($1.28) vs Mutley Crew ($4.70)

The odds are spread here and based on the Doggies form for good reason and add the return of St Lenny an even stronger reason to select St Kilda.  The Bulldogs have taken a caning this week with their 1 from 19 record being touted in the media, nothing gets a team fired up more than the glare of the media spotlight.  See the Pies last week – unfortunately Melbourne struggle with it!  The Dogs were under the stick in Round 1 and towelled up Brisbane – with the right attitude they could do it this weekend also and I am happy to take the $4.70 and tip them.

 

Merrettorious ($2.92) vs The Magic Tones ($1.49)

Compared with the Coll-Syd game these odds don’t factor in Brisbane last week or Carlton the week before – or the Blues fans got their cheques!  A great win by Brisbane over the Bombers and returning to the Gabba should give them a great chance – but the loss of Merrett creates a gaping hole to plug in defence.  But they do have Jed Adcock playing a milestone game – can they lift as the Blues did for Murph and a couple of his other Blues Brothers last week?  I suspect the Blues in attack will be too strong and the form of Jamison, Henderson and White in defence should be good enough, even though they are haunted by the presence of Jonathon Brown.  Blues to win – but again Brisbane are a much better chance than the $2.92 on offer.

 

Captain Commitment ($2.12) vs Domestic Bliss ($1.88)

The Tiges were also pretty quick to shut down Trent Cotchin’s “Flag and I’m done” comment.  Not exactly sure what they are worried about – recent history would indicate he might by playing till he is 80!  They look closer to a flag than they have for a long, long time – but they are very hard to win.  Meanwhile the Bombers appear to be struggling on the field and what would appear to be distracted off the field – nothing like a big game to help regain focus.  The Tiges have got themselves back on track with a solid win at Port and then eventually overpowering Melbourne – to really make a statement they need to win this match.  Maybe they have too many players I don’t rate highly enough – but I reckon Essendon is a more even team across the board and should win especially since Hurley has recovered from concussion.  By the same token this is close to a flip of the coin game and Tigers do lift for this fixture – $2.10 is fair value.

 

Buddy Behaving Badly ($1.03) vs The Students ($26.00)

The one lesson the Suns didn’t want to study was how to play Hawthorn without their best ruckman – what a great shame the injury to Zac Smith.  Then Bennell doesn’t help either.  Maybe the Hawks were allowed to get on the gas this week – Hawks comfortably.

 

Hard to Swallow ($1.54) vs Charddy Up ($2.86)

Was hard for the Kangas to digest their loss last week – whereas Adelaide got themselves moving, their running power seems to be covering the loss of Walker.  This week will be a sterner test against another hard running and disciplined midfield.  The height of Kangas will stretch the Adelaide defence and I suspect will allow them easier access to goals and get back on the winners list.  For Adelaide to win Jacobs will need to be better that Goldstein, they are both excellent craftsmen but Goldy doesn’t lose too many.  North to salute.

 

Frestyle ($1.03) vs The Long March

Coach Neeld has summoned Chairman Mao indicating the need for a 5 year plan – they would hope for A Great Leap Forward – I expect more of a Long March.  Not sure the Demon faithful align themselves that closely with the People’s Liberation Army – even though they have had some dalliances there.  Anyway the next step is against a real workers party team in Freo who will not lose at home.

 

Brisbane Beckonning

The sprinters still hold sway in the Brisbane Carnival with the running of the time–honoured Doomben 10,000 (G1, 1350m, WFA).  Impossible to ignore the form from the BTC Cup where a number of these contenders met, but it should be noted that was run on a heavy track so there will be some excuses.  It might let us have a decent price on Buffering who now under the scale only concedes 2kg to any of the field.  No doubt Your Song must rate a huge chance – but is drawn wide and is pretty short so I am going around it for the value.  Epaulette has a 2nd to Black Caviar, Better Than Ready will be closer to ready after last start and Rain Affair will give them all something to chase.

Selections Race 8 – 2-10-15-4

Quaddie – It’s a tough one, with the first leg wide open, the 2nd a tough one with the 3 year olds but a couple in the It’s a Dundeel colours of intrigue.  The 3rd is the Doomben is wide so we will try and skinny in the last but is it $4 the field.

Race 6 – 1st Leg – 2,5,10,11

Race 7 – 2nd Leg – 2,3,4,12,14

Race 8 – 3rd Leg – 2,4,8,9,10,15

Race 9 – 4th Leg – 12,14

This is 240 combinations a $30 investment will hopefully return 12.5% of the dividend.

 

Friars Footy

A fantastic weekend with the Seniors again saluting away from home against Ormond and the Under 19s turning their previous fortunes against the Northern Blues with a hard fought victory.  This week the seniors return to Friar Park to host the all-conquering Hampton Rovers, should be a great match and hopefully the Friars can use their local knowledge to make them conquered.  The Under 19s traverse the city to Penleigh-Essendon Grammar where they meet a similarly matched opponent – a win would put them ahead on the ledger and in the hunt!

 

Go Blues, Go Friars

Cheers, Sal

 

 

 

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