AFL Round 3: Sal’s Previewish! – Beaten by Thursday Night Footy!

Greetings All,

 

Apologies for the late arrival, Thursday night footy eventually beat me!  Hope you all picked the winner, not me thought Adelaide could continue their record against the Cats.  Geelong made great strides and look a genuine threat.

 

Deemoralised ($1.54) vs Bombed Out ($2.80)

 

Advanced planning from AFL could not have worked out better with two teams with high hopes winless and with some real soul searching to do for the losers.  The Demons were horribly inefficient against Geelong last week so much of the footy with so little return.  Forward entry conversion rate is the critical statistic on the evidence we have seen this year.  Essendon began last week in still in shell shock from the week before, they did battle it out against the Saints but hardly impressive.  In week one the Pies butchered the footy and fixed it in week two, predicting that Melbourne will do the same and find the right connections with the volume of footy they will have.

 

Going up? ($2.74) vs Going Down? ($1.56)

 

Two teams lamenting an 0-2 start, belief being one with upside the other staring down the barrel.  The Blues have played OK in patches but a four quarter effort is required, being overrun by Port and Richmond in both matches.  The selectors took a couple of games to work out why Fasolo was not in the Collingwood Grand Final team while Garlett paid the price for defending with one hand.  Sydney have kicked off without much change from last year – over reliant on Buddy and losing on their own dung hill.  The Blues certainly a chance, just not certain there is anyone in the team yet capable of nullifying Franklin.

 

Return of the Mummy ($1.59) vs Getting Grim ($2.64)

 

The hiatus is over for Shane Mumford, if he can get back to his best the Giants could be huge!  Joining the band is Josh Kelly.  They weren’t terrible against the Premiers last week but will need to be more efficient.  For the Tigers the band is in disrepair – not many teams can function well without their best defender and forward.  Take out Grimes and it looks grim.  Giants should be good enough to win at home.

 

Kings of the Jungle ($1.63) vs Fine Wines ($2.58)

 

The Lions are roaring and looking lock up the Gabbatoir, good teams use their home ground advantage to get them into the finals and better.  From what we have seen so far, they are real threat for September duties.  Port have also begun perfectly with the two-pronged ruck attack overwhelming their opposition in first two matches.  Opposition sides will need a strategy to combat the Ryder-Lycett pairing.  Tough one to pick so going with the home team in an entertaining contest.

 

The Vanquished ($1.46) vs The Victors ($3.15)

 

A grand final rematch between team that only a goal separated at the end of 2018.  The Eagles got back to their precision possession game last week and we should remember they picked the Pies apart during last season at the G with similar plans.  The Collingwood coaching team will be well aware of that and have been looking forward to this match for the whole summer.  Gaff back for the Eagles is a plus as is Adams for Collingwood.  Another difficult selection, if the Pies can play with the cohesion they found last week I think they can win this one.

 

Libbarated ($1.23) vs Dew Influence ($5.20)

 

Watched the Dogs last week share the ball around in fashion very similar to the end of 2016!  Getting Libba back in the team provides so much extra depth to the midfield and while Caleb Daniel was mismatched a couple of times his work with the ball in hand and creativity off half back really set them up.  They take on the Suns who appear to be shining in Stuart Dew’s second year as coach with promising signs.  They ran the Saints to a point in the loungeroom, just think the Dogs are level above and even better at home.

 

On Gard ($1.51) vs Lionised ($2.88)

 

The Hawks get Wingard in the team who will add spark but lose two of their most important players to injury in Shiels and Burgoyne.  They were good in patches against the Dogs but could not keep up in the last quarter.  The Roos suffered a similar fate not being able to go with the Lions.  Another intriguing affair, the best of the Hawks is probably better than the best of North and at the G should suit them also.

 

Trouble and Fyfe ($1.45) vs Just Marvellous ($3.15)

 

Much conjecture this week around Nat Fyfe’s defensive game – might be an issue away from the west – playing at home he just gets the footy.  Taking on the Saints who have had marvelous start to the season winning two in the loungeroom.  Much bigger test in the west that I think will be too hard.

 

It’s Derby Day (The other one)

 

The Championships kick off in Sydney with four group one events including The Australian Derby and the time honoured Doncaster Mile.  Another wettish week means watch early and learn.

 

Saturday

 

Royal Randwick

 

Race 6 – Sires Produce (G1, 1400m, 2yo SW)

 

The babies step out to 7 furlongs so we are looking the types with a bit more stoutness in the breeding.  Castelvecchio (1) fits the bill out of Dundeel should relish a bit of extra ground.  Loving Gaby (12) was never on the track in the Slipper but still held on for fourth, she gets her stoutness from the Dam’s side through Maastricht and gets JMac.  Can’t dismiss the blue army, Kiamichi (10) was probably their 5th seed in the Slipper and won it.  I am putting their other two ahead of her Microphone (2) and Tenley (13).

 

Selections – 1-12-13-2

 

Race 7 – Australian Derby (G1, 2400m, 3yo SW)

 

No disputing about this derby being run over the classic distance – had one picked out for a while here in Global Exchange (8) another Dundeel who has been winning well in Melbourne – has drawn well and KMac aboard.  Has not run in rain affected ground which is a question mark.  Madison County (2) was beaten by the pattern of the race last week and has an excellent record in soft ground.  Was beaten by Angel of Truth (11) last week and was tough to the line while Stars of Carrum (9) has only had one race in mind this campaign, gets Bowman on board and will stay the journey.

 

Selections – 8-2-9-11

 

Race 8 – TJ Smith Stakes (G1, 1200m, WFA)

 

The Everest of the Autumn – just without the singing, dancing and sails!  What a race!  Could easily miss the winner in my top four.  A daring ride in the Everest saw Osborne Bulls (7) run a mighty third, still to win a Group One race but this could be it.  He meets his conqueror in the Newmarket Sunlight (11) with a 1.5kg advantage – she has been outstanding in the autumn and can win again.  Can’t ignore the wet track and the Everest winner Redzel (1) – usually primed for his Grand Final.  Trapeze Artist (2) was second in the Everest and won well last start.  Leaving out other proven group one contenders 3, 4, 5, 6 and 9.

 

Selections – 7-11-1-2

 

Race 9 – Doncaster Mile (G1, 1600m, WFA)

 

Another long range pick of mine – but like Loving Gaby in the Slipper drawn in the car park.  Fifty Stars (15) has been set for this winning races along the way that have not attracted a weight penalty and is undefeated on rain affected tracks.  Has been drawn the outside barrier – so we either take the better odds or think it will be too hard.  Unforgotten (10) is not drawn as poorly and looks well weighted here.  Then the blue factor Alizee (3) and Hartnell (1) are handicapped to their best – some question mark for me over Alizee (3) running a strong mile despite having two wins over the distance, they were not in open company and on good tracks.  Land of Plenty (4) has been running in WFA events and is a proven Group One handicapper.

 

Selections – 15-10-1-4

 

Quaddie

 

We got last week in, but still lost.  This one is as tough as cup week at Flemington.  We will try and stay in and see if we are still standing at Race 10!

 

Leg 1 – 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11, 14

Leg 2 – 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 11

Leg 3 – 1, 4, 10, 15, 18

Leg 4 – 2, 9

 

Had to take one out of each of the first three legs to make it potentially profitable!

 

420 Combinations – a $30 investment will return just over 7% of the dividend.

 

Friar Time

 

The Ammos are back and the Friars head off to Brunswick to reacquaint themselves with old foes Brunswick NOBSP down from Division 1 – plenty of new faces at both clubs will be a great contest.  Meanwhile a triple header at Friar Park with the girls unfurling the flag before taking on the MCC at 9:20, then in a first the Under 23 competition kicks off up against Old Brighton.  The Under 23 competition has been introduced to allow smoother transition from Under 19s into senior footy and keep more players in the game.  Then the Under 19s take on South Melbourne Districts at 2:00pm

 

Go Blues, Go Friars, Go 50 Stars!

 

Cheers, Sal

 

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Comments

  1. John Butler says

    Sal, the way my tipping’s going I’d take 8/9 in a flash.

    Go Blues!

  2. Sal my good oil in Sydney is Bennelong Dancer in R4. For Caulfield News Girl in R5.

    Mansfield Cup has TAB status, as well as being televised on Sky racing 2. This is the second time in recent years a picnic meeting has been given TAB status, also televised. The previous one was Woolamai.

    Happy punting.

    Glen!

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