Sal’s Round 6 Preview – Footy in a strange land but Caulfield back to normal

Greetings All,

 

Another week with plenty on, however somewhat constrained as we travelled back into the pariah state of Victoria.  Should make for some interesting matches being played on neutral venues and expecting a couple of upsets.

 

Anger Management ($2.36) vs Away from the Jungle ($1.72)

 

The SCG makes an interesting venue for the battle of the Felines.  Geelong eventually dealt with the Suns last week although not without a scare. Jack Steven has been managed out of the team.  Brisbane continued their claim to be the pace-setters for the year, but just need to prove themselves away from the Gabba.  The Cats dismissal of the Suns was similar to the Hawthorn game where they took a while to get it on their terms but blew the opposition away once they did.  Away from Kardinia Park and against a more formidable foe it will not be as easy and reckon the Lions will make that trip south a success.

 

Two Chicks ($1.76) vs Old Birds ($2.30)

 

The other Sydney venue sees Collingwood hosting Hawthorn.  Not much going right for the Pies as the availability list shrinks. They have always trusted their depth but reckon two debutant Magpies will be a big ask.  Meanwhile the Hawks have their share of issues at selection and giving Burgoyne a rest after a five day break is probably wise.  List maintenance will be critical over the next few weeks.  Reckon Clarko might have another cunning plan and going with his team.

 

Fyfedom ($3.15) vs Zac Attack ($1.44)

 

The Mansion will feel like home for the Dockers who got one on the board without Fyfe. They host the Saints who will be a completely different proposition.  St Kilda solve the Clarko problem by just moving the footy, Zak Jones returning helps that.  Not sure that Freo can stop them.

 

Shustrings ($1.17) vs Welcome to my Nightmare ($6.40)

 

No pressure on Big Riley looking to run the unfit Nic Nat off his legs but his nightmare with the phone might create a few more.  Getting over the Swans last week was a great result for the Eagles but at some cost with the hamstring injury to Luke Shuey.  The misery continued for Adelaide.  Incredibly the fallout from the 2017 Grand Final is still being felt at the club.  Eagles to soar and Crows to remain winged in the battle of the birds.

 

Deesolate ($1.76) vs Rowelled Up ($2.28)

 

Disappointment for Matt Rowell and the Suns with a long term shoulder injury but there is plenty of time for him to stamp the competition but no hurry for 2020.  We do get to see Izak Rankine for the first time.  The Demons are battling to stamp the 2020 season with another disappointing performance last week.  Their skill level and decision making was sub-standard last week and they need their mid-field to work across an entire game, not fits and spurts.  Petracca shines brightly before fading and none of the others step up.  The Suns faded badly against the Cats but plenty do that at the Cattery. The loss of Rowell hurts but reckon there is enough talent to take this one over the Dees.

 

With Merrett ($1.67) vs Gentle with Ben ($2.46)

 

Zach back for the Bombers is some help but the loss of Stringer puts greater challenges on their forward line.  Meanwhile their opponents need to make careful decisions about playing Ben Cunnington – their best ball winner – but can’t do much restricted on the bench.  It is almost a flip of the coin game and favouring the Bombers just with their defense – but much better value for punters on the Roos.

 

Blacked Out ($2.02) vs Greene Day ($1.96)

 

The Power were shut down last week and need to respond against GWS who will regain the services of Callan Ward.  They also celebrate the 150^th game for Toby Greene.  While a very good midfielder, his instinctiveness and creativity up forward creates so many scoring opportunities.  Probably as important up forward as Charlie is to Port Adelaide.  Another close call, going with the Giants as there are still concerns over what Port has beaten.

 

Domesticats ($1.80) vs Wounded Ducks ($2.20)

 

A long time since there has been such an injury list at Tigerland and added to their challenge is the unavailability of Houli and Edwards who have chosen to stay in Melbourne.  Fortunately they take on Sydney who might not have as many injuries but they are to most of their tall players.  What the Tigers did deliver was their style of footy and, if they can repeat that, I am not sure Sydney can muster a big enough score to beat them.

 

The Big Break ($2.62) vs Return of the Hunter ($1.60)

 

Lachie Hunter’s return for the Dogs is timely with a few feeling worse for wear after last week’s game.  While they may be battered and bruised, the Blues come off a 10-day break after the St Kilda game. Some would think it’s an even longer break with the intensity they played with that night.  They were also thoroughly outcoached and simply need more players to step up if Cripps is not winning the footy for them.  They have what it takes to match the Bulldogs but any drop off intensity will give the game away.  Expecting the Blues to bounce back and they can notch this one.

 

Track Time

 

Caulfield this week with the rail back to true so we might not see the same bias to the frontrunners this week.  We will leave the babies to contest the opener and look at the next.  A pretty good field but reckon Causeway Girl (R2, #4) represents fair value.  The value will look after itself in the 3^rd, the Bendigo trained Tatunka (R3, #8) is in great form although this is a step up.  Morrissy (R4, #5) can win again and happy to go again on Mystery Shot (R5, #2) after delivering a couple of weeks ago.

 

Good 3yo race to open the Quaddie, a couple of shorties but happy to go again with Thought of That (R6, #1) as an each way proposition.  Group racing returns with the Monash Stakes (G3, 1100m, WFA) and going with the class and Viridine (R7, #2) 1, 6, 7 to fill it out.  Another raffle in the 8^th with Elderflower (R8, #7) an each way hope with the 3kg claim.  No easier in the get out, will go with the in-form trainer and jockey Paddy Payne and Billy Egan on Triple Strip (R9, #14).

 

Quaddie

 

Leg 1 – 1, 2, 3

Leg 2 – 1, 2, 6

Leg 3 – 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8

Leg 4 – 10, 11, 14

 

Go Blues,

 

Cheers, Sal

 

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