Sal’s Racing Preview: Turnbull Stakes and Epsom Day

 

 

Greetings All,

 

The season is done and there is no denying Geelong as worthy winners. The convivials were more philosophical with the sage by the time we caught up. His grieving started about half time so was well through by the time we descended at lunch time the following day. While the Cats will relive the season and the Grand Final the rest of us will move on to the stage of trade period and/or the Spring Carnival.

 

Quite quickly the broadcasters and all the their sidekicks bemoaned the ratings of the Grand Final and want to push it to a twilight or night game.  There are so many differences to the last two years they cannot be compared.  A couple of factors were: you could hear the TVs of the nation switching off from quarter time onwards; and COVID had every follower at home on their TV with the family.  This year there was not only 100,000 at the game but pubs, clubs, bbqs hosted gatherings where up to 100s would be gathered at a single venue.

 

The ridiculous argument that night games produce closer results – what bollocks!  Even if it’s true then it on basis that the skills are not as good – so Geelong win by 50 points instead and it’s a crappier game.

 

 

Track Time

 

One of the great days of the year with Flemington and Randwick hosting Group 1 races and plenty of other races that will shape the next few weeks.

 

 

Flemington

 

They have to start sometime and the babies kick off this week in the Maribyrnong Trial unless you know something about the trials best to have your lunch and/or a beer and get ready for the rest of the day.  Visinari (R2, #7) looks like he will come up pretty short, reckon The Garden (R2, #9) might provide better punting value – don’t think there is much between them.  The fillies contest the Edward Manifold with form coming from a couple of different paths, sticking with what I thought was the best race and best run of Sumatra (R3, #2).  If she nearly rounded them up at Caulfield pretty sure Flemington suits her better.  Argentia (R4, #5) is good first up, high quality and should be closing hard.  The worry is that Pride of Jenni (R4, 11) might get a picnic up front and be too hard to run down.  Plenty of other hopes in a good race for the mares.  Giga Kick (R5, #3) is 3 from 3 with big margins including a win down the straight, he comes up very short in the Danehill some risk with so many other lightly raced competitors but looks very good.

 

Race 6 – The Bart Cummings (G3, 2500m, HCP)

 

The quaddie kicks off with a ticket to the Melbourne Cup for the winner.  What we know is that Vow and Declare (2) can stay, he has a 3kg swing from his excellent effort last start and needs to win to get the ticket.  If he does could be a real threat again in the cup as the quality of that field appears to be rapidly diminishing.  Interpretation (10) was not far behind him in that race and also get weight relief.  The Adelaide Cup winner Daqiansweet Junior (4) should be ready to run well, already in the top 24 for the cup so a win not as necessary and can’t ignore High Emocean (9) who won the race referenced for previous form.  There will be more in the quaddie!

 

Selections – 2-10-4-9

 

Race 7 – Turnbull Stakes (G1, 2000m, SWP)

 

A real fork in the road race for a few of these. Such as Duais (2), Profondo (4), Inspirational Girl (8) and Surefire (16) – they don’t need to win but they do need to run well to keep their campaigns on track.  Hezashocka (17) gets a start and is an each way chance with a win over this journey on the CV.  Big step up in grade but the stable has been placing them well lately.  Gold Trip (12) is the one that looks best off on for the conditions of the race and is also that category of needs to perform, will appreciate the expanses of HQ and expect to perform.  If Duais (2) runs up to her Autumn form then she goes very close here, while the best Profondo (4) and Inspirational Girl (8) are also up to this.  A great renewal of the Turnbull with plenty of questions to be answered – or maybe some more raised.

 

Selections – 17-12-2-4-8

 

Hard to like Swat’s That (R9, #13) as favourite for the Bobbie Lewis, runs well up the straight but almost two years since a win!  Zoutori (R9, #9) hasn’t had a win for while either but hasn’t had only 2kg above the minimum for a long time either, reckon he is a better bet.  Can’t see any reason to drop off Mr Maestro (R9, #1) after a strong win over this journey – perhaps better than the others on the Heavy 10 but no doubt about the stamina.

 

 

Randwick

 

Surprisingly small fields for the feature races in Sydney, a couple of days of rain on the horizon should have us playing on a heavy surface but that may change.

 

Race 6 – Flight Stakes (G1, 1600m, Fillies SW)

 

The top three look good here and happy to go with Zougotcha (3) as the pick, has been winning well and a rain affected track is not an issue.  No doubt that Fireburn (1) is more than up to this and the wetter the better while She’s Extreme (2) also has the credentials to win here.  Of the remainder there are a few chances, best of them in my opinion is Madame Pommery (6) who was very good chasing Zougotcha (3) in the Tea Rose.

 

Selections – 3-1-2-6

 

Race 8 – Epsom Handicap (G1, 1600m, HCP)

 

Despite the small field a tough race to assess even more so with the question mark over the conditions.  Top Ranked (1) won the Bill Ritchie nicely, only start on a heavy track with 5th to Verry Elleegant by less than 1½ lengths so hardly a failure.  Has to lug top weight but just might be top class.  Hinged (8) will fly the flag locally for Brae and Ozzie as they lick their wounds from Verry Elleegant not getting a run in the Arc.  She is very good and well in on the weights.  As is Cross Talk (9)  who takes a step but is 4 from 5 on Heavy tracks, Nimalee (4) is in fine form and expect will run well.  Not in the numbers but probably top pick if the track is Soft 5 or better is Fangirl (6).

 

Selections – 1-8-9-4

 

Race 9 – Metropolitan Handicap (G1, 2400m, HCP)

 

Some excuses for Mankayan (5) in the Newcastle Cup and reckon he can come back from that and beat his stablemate Le Don De Vie (2) who gets the steer from JMac.  Down in the weights is Hameron (15) who looks promising and  Durston (7) won the Newcastle Cup and plenty of these haven’t won for a while.

 

Selections – 5-2-15-7

 

Quaddie Time

 

We waited and got another tripod!  A typically difficult affair at Flemington where we will go skinny in the last leg but that will be fraught with danger – it will be hard enough to stay alive!

 

Leg 1 – 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10

Leg 2 – 2, 4, 8, 11, 12, 17

Leg 3 – 1, 2, 6, 9, 13

Leg 4 – 1, 4, 9

 

540 Combinations, $30 Investment returns 5.55% of the dividend.

 

Well Played Cats and I “Vow and Declare”!

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

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Comments

  1. Of course purists call this Murtoa Cup Day.

  2. A tip?

  3. Sal Ciardulli says

    Have taken the hint from JTH and had a look at the Murtoa Cup. Like the second pick in the market Pres de Toi (4) over the favourite Lunatic Fringe (2). Beat roughie Wertheimer (6).

  4. Well I took Lunatic Fringe in the Murtoa Cup, primarily because Blake McDougall the hoop had previously ridden my horse Kapover to a few wins.

    Anyhow I thought Lunatic Fringe should have had it in the bag but a ‘roughie’ got past it to the line. Anyhow I got some $$ back, as finishing second is so much better than fourth.

    Happy punting.

    Glen!

  5. Huntly Castle who won the Murtoa Cup was in Derby three years ago.

    The Caulfield Cup might be an open betting race as no stand out, was surprised Smokin Romans $20 after it won the Naturalism last start with no standout in the Turnbull

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