Greetings all for 2024,
Would much prefer the season to open at the G next Thursday week with 80,000 rabid Blues and Tigers, instead we have the season kicking off in the battlegrounds of Sydney and Queensland as the league looks to win more hearts and minds. The exercise does seem to have some merit with all games reported to be sold out. Sydney and Brisbane were always going to. The issue is that GWS and Gold Coast may have sold out but there will be more Pies and Tigers in the stands than Giants or Suns.
Meanwhile Dill has stepped in for Gil and the song remains the same, particularly on the send off rule after discussion after Jimmy Webster’s bump on Jy Simpkin. Still cannot work out why there is no discussion on this at the league level. Every other major sport and every other level of the game has such a rule. The fear of an unjust sanction is bollocks, what is unjust is that the victim’s team loses a player out of their rotations for an act outside the rules and spirit of the game. For any sanction found to be unjust the other 99% will be more than justified. The AFL have all the technology at their disposal to be able to make decisions as to whether the perpetrator should be allowed to continue in the game.
Then there is Clarkson whose rage may have been understandable with what happened to his skipper. However, the terms used were far from appropriate and opposition coaches going at players is poor look for the game especially when considered at lower levels of the game. While it would appear he will receive a heavy financial sanction, one wonders what would happen to a player who used a similar turn of phrase.
And continue we do with six of last year’s playing between each other and a spicy match up with a coach up against his former club that he held the reigns at a mere 10 months ago!
Horsing Around (55%) vs Oliver’s Army (45%)
Some very interesting match ups here, primarily the return of Clayton Oliver to the fold. While he has not missed a game I am not sure many players have attracted so much attention through the off season. On the other side a couple of ex-Demons will line up for the Swans in Brodie Grundy and James Jordon. Sydney have life without Buddy to get used to, however in reality they played plenty of games without him last year. They are more likely to miss Luke Parker and to make matters worse the man they got to help him out in Taylor Adams is also on the sidelines. The Dees have their share of injuries particularly up forward without Petty, Melksham and Pickett. The Grundy-Gawn matchup will go a long way to help decide this game. Max looked in terrific form against the Blues in the warm up, if he can control the game like that the Demons should get enough ball forward to win. If Grundy can split the contest it becomes a more interesting affair especially with his capability at ground level. Just think Gawn will hold sway enough for the Dees to put Summer Horribilis behind them.
KOTJ (92%) vs Zac’s Back (8%)
Zac Williams maybe back for the Blues, however there are plenty missing including their B&F winner in Weitering and best finals player in Walsh. Even with them in the team the trip to the Gabba is the toughest challenge in footy with the Lions going 13-0 at the venue in 2023. Other clubs can’t wait for the works to begin for the Olympics! While Brisbane will not have their best 22, the ones that come in will only make them harder to beat. They should have Carlton covered this week.
A New Dawn (78%) vs Oozing (22%)
The Tigers match the Blues with injuries early and will be missing Nankervis, Lynch, Graham and Martin. They look into the to the Suns who plan to rise under the tutelage of the old tiger master. He should know enough about the opposition and have enough talent at his disposal to chalk up his first win for the Gold Coast which would be their fourth consecutive over Richmond.
All the Kingsley’s Men (62%) vs On the Fly (38%)
So close against the Pies in the Preliminary Final the Giants have all the favours to reverse the result on their opener. There is much concern about Collingwood’s ability to the defend its title. The loss of McStay does put some pressure on the forwards, but he never played in the Grand Final so they can cope. Much talk about the age of Pendlebury and Sidebottom. Better to wait and see them decline rather than predicting it – they both excel at have the maximum impact with minimal effort. While arguably the best player in the competition is entering his 3rd season! Doubt them at your peril. The Giants though should also get better. Kingsley has a year under his belt, they all know what to expect from each other. They have arguably the best pair of key defenders in the competition in Taylor and Buckley, a balanced midfield in every sense. Youth and experience, inside grunt and outside run. They rely on Hogan as their big forward but have some handy types underneath in Daniels and Bedford, plus Greene. Like the preliminary final it promises to be a beauty that the Giants might just get over the line in.
Track Time
A few more top level races in Melbourne before the Sydney Carnival really gets going. Flemington hosts the incorrectly monickered Super Saturday featuring the Newmarket Handicap , what made it super was also have the Australian Cup on the program however that race being rescheduled we can just call it Newmarket Day. At Randwick they have a couple of races at the top level also.
Flemington
RV have been proactive with the heat forecast and move two races to other programs leaving an 8 race program that might just kick off earlier in the day also. Plenty of nice types are resuming in the opener including Akicita (R1, #8) who was not far behind Australian Guineas winner Southport Tycoon last start. On form Young Werther (R2, #2) looks a justifiable favourite in the 2nd, but has proved a costly conveyance over the journey to take too short a price. Normandy Bridge (R2, #6) presents at a better price just wary that best form is in the wet. The next is tough and looking for something each way, Some People Callme (R3, #14) is down in the weights and gets J Kah. The Sires Produce is one of the features as the 2YO stretch out to 1400, Aardvark (R4, #4) was a good winner here last start needs and looked like there was more in the tank.
Race 5 – Newmarket Handicap (G1, 1200m, HCP)
Not the strongest renewal of the time honoured sprint however the favourite Imperatriz (1) will need to emulate Black Caviar as a mare to carry 58kg to victory. She was challenged in the Lightning but should improve 2nd up. If she gets beaten it is pretty wide open. Buenos Noches (3) has a great record down the straight but has yet to win at the top level but only gets 2 ½ kg relief but there are not that many other Group One winners in the race. Interestingly they are all mares Bella Nipotina (2), Ruthless Dame (5), Magic Time (6) with the latter having a great chance here. She has an excellent record first up and unbeaten over the distance. Cylinder (14) was outstanding in The Everest and is better suited under the handicap conditions. Plenty of other interesting runners It’s Our Time (9), Benedetta (8), Rey Magneiro (11), Sgrhirripa (12) are all down in the weights and winners down the straight and the undefeated NZ raider Master Fay (10). Imperatriz (1) will be tough to beat but reckon the price needs a 3 at the front.
Selections – 1-6-14-3
It is a great field in the Kewney with plenty of good chances, happy to be with Serasana (R6, #11) getting back to level weights. Ciaran Maher saddles up an European performer in Berkshire Shadow (1) for its first start here, happy to follow the stable especially after they took out what would have a very short priced favourite. The mares close out the program in another competitive race where Foxy Frida (1) has a great record over this journey and in this grade.
Quaddie
Two quaddie strategy with Imperatriz one out in one and a couple more in the other but skinnied up in another couple.
Quaddie 1 – Go Imperatriz
Leg 1 – 1
Leg 2 – 1, 4, 5, 6
Leg 3 – 1, 2, 3
Leg 4 – 1, 3, 5, 6, 10
60 Combinations for $15 returns 25% of the dividend.
Quaddie 2 – So who else?
Leg 1 – 1, 3, 6, 12, 14
Leg 2 – 1, 4, 5, 6
Leg 3 – 1, 3
Leg 4 – 1, 3, 5
120 Combinations for $15 returns 12.5% of the dividend.
Randwick
Leg 1 – 1
Leg 2 – 1, 4, 5, 6
Leg 3 – 1, 2, 3
Leg 4 – 1, 2, 5, 6, 10
60 Combinations for $10 returns 16.66% of the dividend.
Randwick
Race 7 – Canterbury Stakes (G1, 1300m, WFA)
CJW pulled Espiona (6) out of the Newmarket to chase this one but has to knock off the Everest winner Think About It (1). Suspect she may have been better suited in Melbourne but does seem the obvious quinella choice. Pericles (2) could challenge that, and Malkovich (5) could hold on for a hole.
Selections – 1-6-2-5
Race 8 – Randwick Guineas (G1, 1600m, 3YO SW)
Tom Kitten (2) got to far back last start but closed out the race very well, should be able to be positioned better and looks a good chance at the price. His conqueror Celestial Legend (3) was very good but drawn the outside gate. They both need to beat the favourite Militarize (1) who gets JMac and is well drawn just no sure the price is justified. Putting in Les Vampires (6) to get the fourth spot.
Selections – 2-3-1-6
Go Blues,
Cheers, Sal
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