Sal’s Preview – Round 9: I know it’s only Ruck and Roll, but I like it!

 

Greetings All

 

While not a fan of the extra interchange player added to the game this season, it will just be a matter of time before the coaches ask for a sub to cover concussion and injury again.  It has also introduced a strategic question for most clubs on whether or not to play two ruckmen or stick with one and a spare parts player.

 

The foot of the table contains teams that have stuck with a single ruck, probably through lack of quality in their second choice and in a couple of cases no choices at all such the Tigers, Bombers and the Dogs while Tim English was injured.  Tonight’s combatants in Fremantle and Hawthorn are playing two genuine ruckmen and gaining huge benefits from it.  It helps the Dockers that both Jackson and Cox both have enough forward craft to be a threat while resting.  For the Hawks the extra big man seems to have made up for the perceived missing midfielder, how dangerous will they be with Will Day included?  The Lions, Demons, Pies and Saints are all playing two ruckmen with positive results.

 

Sydney are persisting with Grundy playing a lone hand with great success.  Will it burn him out or do they introduce some support for him in the next few weeks?  Suspecting a couple of well performed big men in the second tier competitions might get a look in the mid-season draft.

 

I like it!

 

The Young Years (64%) vs Somebodie (36%)

 

What a match up!  Fremantle and Hawthorn have been so good this year, not only for results but great to watch.  Part of the Dockers appeal is watching the movement and kicking of Hayden Young, a touch fragile but when he is playing they go up a notch.  As do the Hawks with when their fragile star is available, alas Day is still on the sideline.  Bodie Ryan is not coming in for game one.  The ruck contests will be fascinating in a must watch game, where Freo’s home ground advantage just gets them over the line.

 

Short of a Gallop (99%) vs Disreputable (1%)

 

Not sure the Blues brought anyone but themselves in disrepute in the Collingwood game, or any other this season.  They head to Brisbane who have lost another tall to injury in Ty Gallop.  Against a number of other teams this could be an issue, not against Carlton.

 

Berryed (53%) vs The Welcome Matt (47%)

 

Just as Joe Berry looked to have got Port home in another classic Showdown, he left a fraction too much time on the clock as the Crows found one more.  The host the Dogs who will have Matt Kennedy playing game 150.  It’s been quite a journey via the Giants and Blues, now a valuable part of the Dogs.  Might need to be more valuable this week with doubts around the Bont.  So much hinges on this.  They were very good against Freo last week finding a way to boot 100 points.  They have the midfield that can equalise Butters and Horne-Francis, do they have a defender to handle Georgiades?  If they do, they can win.

 

Xerri (7%) vs Grundy (93%)

 

Another tale of two rucks.  Reckon Xerri is more important to North than Grundy to Sydney, provided the Sydney big man matches his opponent the juggernaut rolls on.

 

Brigg it on (99%) vs Running with the Bull (1%)

 

The Giants big man options have been smacked with injuries to Madden and Aleer, leaving the out of favour Kieren Briggs to carry the load.  Should not be too hefty this week against Essendon.  They will be looking for a better effort as they celebrate 100 games for Sam Durham.  Don’t think they will be singing the song though.

 

Darwin Theory (85%) vs To the Max (15%)

 

The Saints go on the toughest road trip, playing the Suns in Darwin.  Gold Coast are undefeated at their tropical paradise.  While Max Hall is cruising for St Kilda, the other Max broke in the VFL last week his return to AFL level keeps looking further away.  His brother Ben will need to get it done without Matt Rowell this week, but suspect they have that covered and will make it 9 from 9.

 

The Outlier (74%) vs Don’t Pay (26%)

 

The Perryman takes a stint on the sidelines for the Pies away game at the MCG against Geelong, handy to get Pendlebury and Howe back.  Pendles will equal Brent Harvey’s games record this week, before another rest next week.  For Geelong their lynchpin in defence Tom Stewart plays game 200.  In the ruck conversation the Cats have long been an outlier.  Never really playing a recognised ruckman since Brad Ottens, nevertheless they have always found a way to be competitive and are doing so again.  Suspect Stanley may come back in to take on the Cameron-Steene combination.  The Pies were very good against Hawthorn last week and while Geelong sit above them not sure that their position is not being enhanced by the Kardinia Park factor.  Their only win away from there was at Norwood against West Coast.  Just going with the away team here!

 

Looking Sharp (98%) vs Mauled (2%)

 

The Dees have plucked some handy ones from trade, Jack Steele a standout.  Harry Sharp is in his second year in the red and blue, his run and kicking skills have been well on show this season.  They take on the Eagles who were mauled by the Tigers last week, I doubt this will be any prettier.

 

The Faull Guy (3%) vs Closing Cook (97%)

 

Jonty got the Tigers moving last week with three early goals before Noah Balta chimed with three more to help them to their opening win of the season.  Not sure they will get number two this week against the champs of South Australia claiming the title with Brayden Cook’s last minute sealer.

 

Track Time

 

While we are back on Broadway at Caulfield it is a pretty pedestrian card so we will just focus on trying to get a quaddie home this week.  We have the finale of group one racing in Adelaide with the Goodwood as we start to follow up north for the Brisbane carnival.  While not a top level race the Hollindale Cup at the Gold Coast features the last two Melbourne Cup winners and Pride of Jenni.   

 

Caulfield

 

With the weather turning it is hard to know how the track will play.  Expectations are that we will be on a soft surface at best and they will be getting well off the fence for the quaddie legs.  Top pick in the opening leg is Call to Glory (R6, #10) is 5 from 9 on wet tracks and C Williams aboard.  Similar call in the next where El Rocko (R7, #4) gets the conditions he needs to lead them a merry raindance.  Black Run (R8, #10) put together a great winning streak in his last spell, comes here second up, gets the apprentice claim and preferred ground.  We close out with the third emergency being the favourite, a wet track probably sees enough scratchings for her to get a run.  Of those in the field the Tasmanian Swift Force (R9, #10) gets Froggy is 3 from 4 (2 from 3 on Soft).

 

Quaddie

 

Leg 1 – 1, 9, 10, 11

Leg 2 – 3, 4, 5, 7

Leg 3 – 3, 6, 8, 10, 12

Leg 4 – 2, 10, 17em3

 

240 Combinations (if they all run), a $30 investment will return 12.5% of the dividend

 

Morphettville

 

Race 8 – The Goodwood (G1, 1200m, HCP)

 

All the way to the bottom in a big handicap with Extragalactic (16) who gets a 2½ kilo swing over her conqueror last start.  Flying for Fun (13) was just that in a blanket finish in the Sangster.  Can’t leave out Rey Magnerio (1) the handicapper might have him, but W Pike comes from Perth to ride him and always gives his all.  Then Grand Larceny (3) is capable of stealing it, won a key lead up race very well and B Melham sticks with him.  Also rate 7, 10, 14 in a competitive renewal.

 

Selections – 16 – 13 – 1 – 3

 

Go Blues, 

 

Cheers, Sal

 

More from Sal can be read Here.

 

 

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