Greetings All
Another tough week to be a Carlton supporter. While there are justifiably several questions around the clubs handling of Elijah Holland last Thursday the overriding issue is the young man himself. No matter what the outcome for the club, Elijah’s health and well-being is the first, second and third priority here, we trust he’s in the best of care surrounded by his family. To hear of photographers camped outside the home is a disgrace.
As for the club, we will allow them to make all the investigations required as to how the situation arose and got out of hand. They get some slack as this is an event that no club has ever encountered. The investigation needs to be complete, thorough and honest ensuring that clubs have some guidelines and protocols in place that prevents such a situation arising again.
Now we have some Anzac Footy to get to.
Lobbed Out (12%) vs Reptillian (88%)
It’s a tough week for footy when one of the young stars goes down with a long term injury, to make it worse for the Bulldogs specifically Lobb, Libba and O’Donnell join Darcy on the sidelines while there are doubts on the fitness of Bontempelli and Richards. They take on the Swans who have lost Heeney to injury. Shame they both are not at full strength but it should be a great contest. Concerns about the Dogs defence after conceding over the ton in their last two encounters, this week they will need to defend deeper to counter the run and drive being delivered by Nick Blakey for the Swans. Another rookie ruckman in Lachlan Smith has the task against Grundy, Brodie has been superb this season, his fitness levels have simply outlasted the opposition. The one exception being the Hawthorn game against two genuine rucks. In the Dogs favour is Luke Beveridge and his ability to conjure up a winning game plan from any situation – and, if they are fit, two of the best midfield weapons in the game. Sydney has 6-3 record in the loungeroom against the Dogs, suspect they will have too many advantages and stretch it to 7-3
The Lynch Mob (2%) vs Lion Hunters (98%)
The Tigers should get the services of Tom Lynch to help them up forward, however the woe has been at the other end coughing large losing margins. At least this week’s opponents are not winning by big margins, but they are winning beating both Queensland teams here recently. Melbourne have been known to lose unexpectedly but not sure Richmond are going anywhere near well enough.
Oh James (68%) vs Some Bohdi (32%)
Do the indiscretions of Moore and Sicily hurt the Hawks or is that simply part of the package and the occasional price they have to pay? Successful Hawthorn teams have always had that edge to them and we might have another handy version at the moment. They head to Launceston to host Gold Coast who are having their 7th attempt at a victory there. On the plus side, the last loss was 4 years ago. Both teams stuttered against lowly rated teams last week and will want to lift their games this week. Just think the Hawks with the two genuine ruckmen are stretching most teams and can hold sway over the Witts powered Suns.
Merrettorius (15%) vs Go Moore Steel (85%)
While the Pies just got home against Carlton inspired by Nick Daicos’ quarter for the ages, they are likely to get back Sidebottom, De Goey and Moore which will improve their lot. Will that make them good enough to get over the improving Bombers? They have Zach Merrett firing again and the inclusion of Tsatas driving centre clearances and contested footy. Essendon supporters have a bit of pep in their step at the moment, not sure it will get much stronger after this game.
The Sweet Inferno (7%) vs Life of Gryan (93%)
Port nearly got the Hawks matching their two ruck with Sweet and Dante Visentini, will they go with the same strategy against Geelong who struggle to find one ruckman let alone two! They will miss Gryan Miers again as he battles through a knee issue. From experience if the ACL is partially torn – it’s gonna go some time. Not that it will matter here, the average margin in their last three encounters is over 80 points – we might extend that a bit this week.
Masonry (98%) vs It’s the Pitts (2%)
With Sean Darcy looking at a stint on the sidelines does Mason Cox get the opportunity to get back to AFL level? Will all depend on strategy. The Blues have lost Pittonet and are likely to go in with Liam Reidy – who Mason replaced at Freo. They may just leave it to Jackson. All pretty academic – Carlton will be feisty but we know how these things end.
What’s the Point? (98%) vs Hold the Press (2%)
The point went the wrong way for the Saints last week, but they’ll still take ‘66! Suspect the margin will go their way this week and by a bit more against West Coast. They brought back Milan Murdock who gave plenty and led the tackle count.
Black and Blue Berry (87%) vs Life of Riley (13%)
Tex was great with 5 majors last week, but not far behind was Thilthorpe who had 6 shots at goal but only went at 50%. The combination could stretch the undersized Brisbane defence. The Lions lose Berry to a calf injury but should regain Fort. Chris Fagan lamented two of the Brisbane losses this year due to poor goal kicking – in reality it was just the opposition’s was better. Suspect he is aware of their last two encounters against the Crows also – lost both by less than a goal and having more shots than Adelaide in both. If they clean that up I suspect they win this.
Not Easy Being Greene (78%) vs Yes Zur (22%)
Toby Greene surpasses Callum Ward as the GWS games record holder, how much would they love to have them both going around. They host the Roos in the capital with Cam Zurhaar reaching the 150 game milestone. North’s form has been impressive but beating the who is not who of the competition – but winning is a habit and they are developing that. GWS have had tougher assignments but are being well beaten. Both teams get key players back, but the most important Giant remains on the sidelines in Taylor. Reckon North might just get another one.
Track Time
It’s back to HQ for the traditional ANZAC Day meeting and a Saturday with only 8 races being a welcome change. The main races for the day head to Adelaide with a couple of top level events.
Flemington
The import Kurakka (R1, #9) meets his conqueror with a significant weight advantage and will appreciate the expanses of Flemington. Might be a bit late for coffee however a nibble on Cafe au Lait (R2, #4) might be tasty. The babies go around in the 3rd with guess work required, maybe Seraphox (R3, #2) but probably a beer! Mukhtalif (R4, #2) is another Maher import, won well last start and looks to be able to go on with it.
We have big fields for the quaddie legs and would be great to find a few here. King Zephyr (R5, #4) had excuses last start, won a trial easily since then, his best can win this. The time-honoured St Leger for the 3YO stayers is a tough event to sort out. Going with Deal Done Fast (R6, #1) has been running in the top grade, this is a bit easier but will have a few in the quaddie. We can skinny up on Zakouma (R7, #15) a strong winner here last start and gets in on the minimum. We close out on Madiyya (R8, #12) she didn’t fire last preparation but if she can reproduce her form from this time last year she is a great chance.
Quaddie
Leg 1 – 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 12
Leg 2 – 1, 2, 3, 16
Leg 3 – 13, 15
Leg 4 – 3, 9, 11, 12
192 Combinations, a $30 investment will return 15.6% of the dividend
Morphettville
Race 7 – Australasian Oaks (G1, 2000m, 3YO Fillies SW)
These SA Group One events attract handy fields but often with a long tail. This race is an example of such. Not much between Salty Pearl (3) and Gotta Good Feeling (2) and just siding with the former with the better price on offer. Paltrow Miss (12) is only having start number four and has looked in the first three. Would have rated Panova (4) higher but for the tough draw and rate Mating Call (5) as the best of the locals.
Selections – 3-2-12-4
Race 8 – Sangster Stakes (G1, 1200m, Fillies and Mares WFA)
A terrific renewal of this event with plenty of chances and not quite the tail. Benedetta (4) has been running well in open company back to her own sex she looks well placed here. Will have to get past Generosity (3) who gets JMac and the gun run from the inside, while Point Barrow (17) has a tough draw to contend with but it might suit her as a swooper. Last year’s winner Charm Stone (2) is a bit all or nothing but her all is good enough. Leaving out plenty of other great chances, none would shock.
Selections – 4-3-17-2
Go Blues,
Cheers, Sal
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