Greetings All,
It’s the Adelaide benefit round giving both SA clubs an extra home game for the year. Which one will take advantage of it? The Premier is pushing to extend the deal, good to see that Dill has not indicated that he will.
Chaycing a Win (26%) vs Back on Tracc (74%)
The Crows are 0-3 looking to open their account, they poleaxed the undefeated Blues in the corresponding game last year, can they do the same to the Demons? Melbourne have hit back with three wins after the opener and get Steven May back. They have all their guns firing and a good spread of goal kickers, the Crows are challenged in that area at the moment with neither Walker or Fogarty having much impact. For the Crows to win that has to change, against the meanest defence in the league – not sure it will so expect the Dees to make it four on the trot.
Lion Down (97%) vs Corr Values (3%)
Plenty of scuttlebutt about the Lions this week, the reality is that Collingwood had a greater appetite for the contest. Even when Brisbane controlled the game the defensive efforts of the Pies impacted their ability to get clean shots at goal. Hipwood and Daniher got their hands on plenty but all under pressure, while Charlie Cameron is in Jack Dyer terms ‘where the ball ain’t’. They face North this week who booted 12 goals but had no answer to the big blue forwards. Aidan Corr, Kallan Dawson and Toby Pink just do not have the size for the big forwards – it is Eric and Joe’s opportunity to make an impact and expect they will and kick start the Brisbane season.
Blowing the Horne (91%) vs Pulling the Strings (9%)
Great effort from the Bombers last week, Jake Stringer closing it out with a bomb from beyond the arc! They face Port who will welcome back Horne-Francis at the cost of Ollie Wines. They lost to the Demons forward efficiency last week. Ben McKay showed his value for Essendon last week especially with the Saints losing King, expect Charlie Dixon will be a tougher opponent. Collectively they brought effort to the contest last week and need to do the same again to try and stop Port’s dominance of them in the last seven encounters. After last week’s disappointment Port are likely to match the effort and just have a bit more talent and a home ground advantage.
Shot Birds (1%) vs The other Tay Tay (99%)
Handy debut for Taylor Adams with Sydney getting the percentage prize up against the Eagles whose season is as good as done.
Undocked (35%) vs The Other Harry (65%)
Freo have kicked off their season in style and remain undefeated as do their opponents in the Blues. The ruck contest will be a key to this game with Luke Jackson and Tom de Koning facing off. Jackson has been outstanding so far this season contributing around the ground and on the scoreboard. TDK has not stood out but has held his own against some of the stronger rucks on the competition. Will be great to watch a couple of athletic big men go at it. The Dockers have been frugal thus far conceding only 60 points per game, they face a pretty big challenge with Curnow and McKay. Charlie has not really fired in 2024 but still managed four last week, while Harry has been superb. Not just with his goal kicking but his work around the ground and supporting in the ruck has made him so much more important to the Blues. A great game scheduled in the twilight zone, reckon the Blues can finally get one done at Adelaide Oval.
Schnauzer (46%) vs Russian Blue (54%)
The encore is the battle of domestic pets. The Dogs have won their last two exactly as they should have while Geelong have done all that is required to be undefeated. All their opponents have had moments, but in reality the Cats were ultimately in control. Expect them to control this one too, doubt the Bulldogs have the personnel in defence to look after Hawkins and Cameron. For Dogs to win then the Bont and Libba will need massive contributions.
The Sunveiling (15%) vs The Best Tay Tay (85%)
On his arrival Dimma indicated his thoughts on the existing and prospective talent at the Suns and this week three more will make their debut, as important will be the return of Jarrod Witts. He makes them so much more competitive and expect them to make a great contest with Giants. The battle between Rowell and Green will be worth the ticket. The Giants defence led by Sam Taylor should make life too difficult for the Sun forwards, while King is formidable the support cast needs to grow. Expect the Giants to get up but expect a much closer game than the satchel swingers are suggesting.
No Lynch Pin (14%) vs ROTK (86%)
The tale of two forwards might settle this one. Max King returns for the Saints to make life difficult for the Tiger defence, while up the other end Lynch is injured making life a bit easier for the Saints. Richmond also lose Balta and Baker, while we wait and see whether Grimes, Martin and Graham are fit. They were terrific last week against the Swans but will have to raise the level again to cover those injuries and expect the Saints to get back on the winners list.
Road Trippers (91%) vs The Closers (9%)
The trip to Brisbane turned out to be perfect for the Pies, they have used the ‘backs to the wall’ road trip successfully for many a year and this was just another one. As is this but an easier assignment against the Hawks who again get to close the round out. It has been left to the Sunday Twilight zone and probably reasonably so – expect the Pies to get to 2-3.
Track Time
The Group Ones are over for Melbourne with Caulfield hosting what is normally the Easter program this week. Some very competitive fields and tough to find the winners, will try to get a couple. Meanwhile the focus goes squarely to the Championships at Randwick where on queue the gods are expected to deliver Armageddon.
Not much interest in the 2YO race as the opener at Caulfield nor the second although Berkshire Breeze (R2, #2) having his second run in Australia will be worth watching for future prospects. The next is similar although if the odds are Ok then I am Caviar (R3, #12) on an each way basis has some appeal beaten by a handy trio last start and drops in grade. Happy to back up on the trainer and jockey in the next on Moesha (R4, #5) gets a decent barrier in an open race. Hazel Baby (R5, #8) drops in class but pays with the weight, trusting the placement from the Maher stable. A terrific contest for the fillies and mares with Serasana (R6, #3) returning to the journey of her best victory in the Sandown Guineas.
The quaddie kicks off with the 3YO stayers where the top three stand out, but being over 2400m nothing would shock. Picking Sunsets (R7, #3) who was 3rd in the Derby from a tougher draw than the 2nd place getter Apulia (R7, #1) but not much between them. Excuses for Globe (R8, #9) in the Feehan unbeaten prior, trusting Price/Kent have him right for this otherwise an open affair. First Immortal (R8, #3) returned with a solid win, the progression to 2000m suits and will be hard to beat. On his way to bigger and better things! A tough close to the day and the Quaddie and while Frigid (R10, #13) has left me cold of late she has a good second up record and a good performer here.
Quaddie
Leg 1 – 1, 2, 3
Leg 2 – 1, 2, 4, 5, 9
Leg 3 – 3, 8, 9
Leg 4 – 11, 13
90 Combinations, a $30 investment will return 33.3% of the dividend
Randwick
Race 6 – Sires Produce Stakes (G1, 1400m, 2YO SW)
With no exposed for on heavy tracks going the safety option and trusting the Slipper form with the first four across the line there featuring here. JMac back on Storm Boy (1) might make the difference here and the last start loss might just be getting us better odds. Coleman (2) was terrific in the Slipper and can turn the tables as can Traffic Warden (3). Then again maybe not so Lady of Camelot (9) needs to go in.
Selections – 1-2-3-9
Race 7 – TJ Smith Stakes (G1, 1200m, WFA)
Would love to see this race on a good surface, nevertheless it should still be a beauty with Imperatriz (8) making the journey north. Prefers a good surface but no slouch in the wet with a 50% record, can win this but certainly need at least a 3 in the price. Last year’s winner has the record on the track and in the conditions to be the biggest threat, I Wish I Win (1) resumes after 2nd in the Everest and gets JMac on board. Can’t leave Private Eye (2) out of the reckoning, things didn’t go right in his last two B Shinn makes things go right. Bella Nipotina (9) is a mudlark, consistent and can be devastating when it all goes right.
Selections – 8-1-2-9
Race 8– Doncaster Mile (G1, 1600m, HCP)
Some concern with the wide draw but even that might not be an issue by Race 8 so happy to be with Another Wil (18), a big step up but well weighted and has a win on heavy albeit in the bush. Predicting a Maher quinella with Detonator Jack (8) big drop in weight from last start and always in the money in the wet. The conditions also suit Lady Laguna (12) Ryder form is good for this and the winner is not here and must consider Militarize (4) hasn’t won for a while but always thereabouts. Probably would have had Obamburumai (2) high in the selections – brilliant in the Golden Eagle but must be some doubt in heavy going.
Selections – 18-8-12-4
Race 9 – ATC Australian Derby (G1, 2400m, 3YO SW)
Is it Tom’s day? GSOB saddles up Tom Kitten (2) in a race he looks well suited to provided he can get a decent run, as he did in the Spring Champion. The inside draw might not suit but hopefully the Hippo can negotiate that. His stablemate and VRC Oaks winner Zardozi (14) fronts up against the boys has a better chance here than against Orchestral in the Oaks. They are both drawn in, Riff Rocket (1) has drawn out and gets JMac. Untried in the heavy but a couple of wins on soft tracks clearly a great chance. Of the rest Wymark (7) is progressive winning his last four looks the best of them and not without a winning hope.
Selections – 2-14-1-7
Go Blues, Go the Orange, Go Wil, Go Tom
Cheers, Sal
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