Greetings All
The introduction of an Opening Round has disrupted the natural rhythm that traditionally underpinned the season, and nowhere is that felt more than among fans. Instead of a clean, collective start, the staggered fixture leaves many supporters without a game to watch involving their own club, sometimes for extended stretches. For fans, following their team week-to-week is a ritual — a consistent emotional investment that builds momentum. When that rhythm is broken, it creates a sense of disconnection and frustration. The season feels like it has started, but not really begun yet.
This inconsistency impacts engagement. Fans are less likely to fully immerse themselves in other matches when their own team isn’t playing, weakening overall interest in the competition during these early rounds. The shared experience that typically defines Round 1 — where every supporter is simultaneously hopeful — becomes diluted.
For players, the inconsistency can be equally unsettling. Some teams gain momentum early, while others endure extended pre-season builds. The lack of synchronicity makes it harder to benchmark performance across the competition, particularly in the opening weeks when form and fitness are still settling.
Broadcasters also face challenges. A split opening complicates scheduling and narrative-building, making it harder to generate cohesive storylines that capture attention. While it may create additional stand alone content, it sacrifices the intensity and cultural moment that a full round provides.
Ultimately, the Opening Round experiment prioritises novelty over cohesion, and in doing so, disrupts the flow that has long been central to the competition. I have no issue with the focus on the northern states and am happy for those clubs to host in prime time in Round One, but give every team a run.
The early rounds have been a tipster’s nightmare, how much is due to the lack of rhythm is debatable. The stats though do make it interesting – 11 of the 21 games this season have been won by the underdog. In the same period in 2025, the numbers were 5 from 20 and for the entire season, including finals, it was 59 from 216 games.
Let’s see where they stand after these seven games.
Close Call (94%) vs Closed Daws (6%)
Matthew Nicks has set his line for this game at The Cattery not taking any risks with either Jordan Dawson and Taylor Walker. They are further weakened by the losses of Laird and Ah Chee. Is it too pessimistic or just pragmatic? Probably the latter and still expect Adelaide to be formidable opposition for the Cats. Geelong have their own injury worries with Dangerfield not coming up for this contest and in doubt for the next. They have sent a significant message with Brad Close excluded from the team and James Worpel only making it back to the emergency list. It is a great test for the Crows and they will be feisty. Could easily be the twelfth upset but expect the home team to prevail.
A Bobby Each Way (82%) vs Plugging the Leak (18%)
Bobby Hill is back on track for the Pies but will not be solving any of their forward line woes yet. What might help is another Giants defender joining Sam Taylor on the sidelines with Kingsley needing to choose between Leek Aleer and James Leake to replace Jack Buckley. Suspect there will be a few more changes with Cadman, Bedford and Daniels over their injuries. The Pies get Moore and Howe back and while they are defenders it will provide them with more options up forward. It’s the first time these clubs have met in the Loungeroom and while it might not be Collingwood’s favoured venue they will make it hostile enough for the Giants and get this one.
Time Bandits (26%) vs Slam Dunk (74%)
29 seconds is a long time in a game decided by less than a goal, did that time clinch it for the Saints? Highly doubtful as they were lost at the end of the second quarter when St Kilda were controlling the game and not the last when the Giants were storming. Nevertheless a poor situation for the league. As is the bickering between these two clubs over high salaries and cheap talent, it gets sorted on Saturday. Brisbane get a couple of key players back, while the Saints lose a soldier from the defence in Caminiti. We should see both teams play two ruckmen with the Draper vs De Koning contest of particular interest as they were both the great hopes for their previous clubs. Fagan will be keen from both a team and personal perspective to put the clamps on Nas and would be surprised if anyone but Josh Dunkley went to him. For such a mouth-watering contest 12:35pm is an odd time but such is the way with the AFL’s fixturing maestro! It might be a St Kilda home game in the Loungeroom, but Brisbane have only lost three games here since 2019 and the last one to the Saints the year prior. Suspect they will get things back on track here.
Pony Club (99.6%) vs Hamstrung (0.4%)
Patrick Voss’ taunting of Harrison Petty was exactly that and has been dealt with accordingly and not before time. In years past such behaviour would be dealt with by the likes of Merrett, Gull, Nicholls, Scott among others. It deserves a penalty and now it’s up to the umpires – will they dispense it? Not sure much taunting will be required against the Tigers who have lost two of their most experienced leaders in Lynch and Nankervis. Freo to win this.
Red and very Black (22%) vs Swooped (78%)
Will this become the Brad Scott Cup of the future? Right now he has his hands full with the Bombers who continue down a dark path – not assisted with an injury to key defender Mason Redman. There needs to be some response from the playing group after two humiliations. They take on North who have their own humiliation to deal with after coughing up a 30 point lead to a team that had not won a game for nearly a year. The Roos should get some handy ones back. A win for the Bombers would be a four quarter effort and if they deliver it might even have four points attached.
Not So Rozee (92%) vs Wee Willem (8%)
After the performance of Willem Duursma, suspect the Eagles recruiting may have sunk back in their chairs that night and enjoyed a Wee Willem or two. They head to Adelaide and face Port who are dealing with the loss of their skipper Connor Rozee for an extended period. They did manage to dispatch the Bombers at home last week and expect the Eagles will be similar fodder.
In the Nic of Time (48%) vs Old McDonald (52%)
After a year out the Blues should get Nic Newman back to return some composure and skill to the defence, should have been earlier if not for a pre-season brain fart in a meaningless practice match. They could have a number of players back including Saad, Haynes and Cerra. Up against the Demons who will have Tom McDonald in to replace the unfortunate Daniel Turner. The game is a test for the advancement of both teams. Carlton needs to show that they can play with more composure and control for four quarters and find more ways to goal. The Demons need to bounce back and show the speed and skill on display in their opener. Max Gawn has shown his endurance to ruck all day, Marc Pittonet has similar capability but not quite the craft a great battle ensues. The Blues have won the last four contests all by 8 points or less, expect another close one and the ledger on the same side.
Track Time
We are blessed with many world class hoops here but there is none better than James McDonald who broke the record for Group One winners last Saturday. The naysayers may talk about the plum rides he gets. He gets those rides because of his ability to read a race and skill to navigate the path to victory. If I am an owner I know my chance of winning is with JMac aboard.
As for the meetings this week, the final Group One of the season in Victoria takes place at Headquarters with a few other highlights on the card in particular the first free ticket into the Melbourne Cup. Up north Rosehill has a couple of top level races highlighted by the Tancred Stakes. Usually we are concerned with the skies in Sydney at this time of year, however we also need to be wary of Melbourne weather this week with a wet forecast ahead of the meeting. The rail back in the true position hopefully providing a fairer surface than the last meeting at Flemington.
Flemington
Back to her own sex She’s an Artist (R1, #5) looks very hard to beat, not unlike Treasure the Moment last week. However it takes a brave soul to trust this conveyance at the current quoted price, would prefer a speculative punt on the progressive Gentle Steel (R1, #3). The second is wide open affair where nothing would shock, happy to be with the lightly raced Jett Smash (R2, #7) who is 2 from 3 and gets C Williams.
Race 3 – Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes (G3, 1200m, 2YO SWP)
Wary of any race where Moody and O’Brien have first starters but leaving them out here. Jadzia (4) took a while to get to the races but was good in chasing a handy one and looks well placed here. Respect for the O’Shea/Charlton stable bringing one down from Sydney in Satono Glow (5). Gin Twist (1) has to cope with the extra imposte for the last start win then putting in the Moody/Coleman debutante in Firm’n’high (7).
Selections – 4-5-1-7
Looking for a bit of magic from Nimbustwothousand (R4, #4) in another open affair assuming outside lanes down the straight have an advantage. Otherwise Salsa Fellow (R4, #9) is handy down the straight. While there was a margin between them last start Pantile Warrior (R5, #15) gets in significantly better at the weights and a better draw than his conqueror Zakouma (R5, #14) most importantly a much more attractive price.
Race 6 – VRC Sprint Classic (Listed, 1100m, 3YO SWP)
My Gladiola (5) drops back to her own age group after competing at the top level, she looks the obvious here. We will learn more about Educated (10), undefeated and a winner over this trip taking a step up here. Legacy Bound (2) is also a winner here and placed in the Coolmore which is great form for this and Thanks Gorgeous (9) has a good record over this trip.
Selections – 5-10-2-9
Race 7 – The Roy Higgins (Listed, 2600m, SWP)
With the first golden ticket up for grabs am defaulting to the best horse in the race in Onesmoothoperator (1) winner of the MV Cup last year and the Geelong Cup a year prior has all the credentials to run well here. Whisky on the Hill (3) is a proven performer here and gets out to a suitable distance range. Can’t ignore the Auckland Cup winner Paradise Storm (2) some concern about coming back in trip and Desert Hero (6) closed out well last start.
Selections – 1-3-2-6
Race 8 – The Australian Cup (G1, 2000m, WFA)
Was one of my favourite races but has fallen victim to the Sydney-Melbourne battle with the advent of the All Star Mile pushing it out from Super Saturday and this year competing directly with the Tancred. We still have a quality field and any race with Pride of Jenni (8) will be a good contest. Just not sure she can win this. Reckon Tom Kitten (1) can get her again, consistent performer at this level. If he doesn’t then Birdman (5) is next in line another that has developed into a very consistent performer. Then if they all overdo it Leica Lucy (10) will be steaming home. Light Infantry Man (2) and Sabaj (6) could also figure.
Selections – 1-5-8-10
Race 9 – Bob Hoysted (Listed, 1000m, HCP)
Midwest (3) draws the outside and goes like a scared cat, just grabbed by a good one last start and gets some weight relief here. If the winner comes from the other side then Celerity (8) has a real chance, is undefeated when J Melham is on board. The Hayes team has taken over Godolfin’s Pisanello (4) from GSOB, has a handy fresh record. Wary of anything Matty Smith brings south so must give Way to the Stars (2) respect especially with the engagement of C Williams.
Selections – 3-8-4-2
The wide draw is some concern but by race 10 and a potentially rain affected track Taken (R10, #12) might be well placed with J Melham to steer the course.
Quaddie
Well that didn’t work with two of the hot pots getting rolled so a minimal return. This week is a typically tough Flemington quaddie so we will try and stay in as long as we can and have a couple running for us in the last.
Leg 1 – 1, 2, 3, 6, 13
Leg 2 – 1, 5, 8, 10
Leg 3 – 2, 3, 4, 8, 13
Leg 4 – 6, 11, 12
300 Combinations, a $30 investment will return 10% of the dividend
Rosehill
Race 6 – Vinery Stud Stakes (G1, 2000m, 3YO Fillies SW)
The top four in the market look to have this race between them just a matter of sorting out the order. It’s a step up but Salty Pearl (3) has always given the impression she would handle the extra distance. She will have to get past Ohope Wins (1) who gets JMac and has very strong NZ form, slightly better than Belle Cheval (2) who also commands respect. Panova (4) has not saluted since winning the opener on Derby Day where the pace was on early. Could get the job done here but doubt there will be enough speed in the race.
Selections – 3-1-2-4
Race 8 – Tancred Stakes (G1, 2400m, WFA)
Dubai Honour (1) returns to defend his crown, form since is good and the relative price to Aeliana (9) is attractive. No doubt Aeliana (9) is more than worthy as favourite but needs to back up from last week. Her best win was over this distance in the ATC Derby last year. River of Stars (7) gets out to a more suitable distance and Vauban (2) might not be up to Melbourne Cup favouritism any more but is running consistently.
Selections – 1-9-7-2
Go Blues,
Cheers, Sal
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