Greetings All,
There were two teams out there but only one was trying to play football. Thankfully, that team won with Spain holding the cup aloft. As written a couple of weeks ago, the Argentine dependence on Lionel Messi made them single point sensitive and once the Spanish defence had him covered, their only tactic was “Shithousery”, as one member of this forum beautifully described in an earlier contest. While we marveled at the joy of watching Lamine Yamal, his teenage teammate in defence, Pau Cubarsi, was even better at controlling the Argentine forays and passing with aplomb. Special mention to Emi Martinez whose efforts in goal for Argentina stopped an avalanche until that perfect strike from Ferran Torres. Ultimately the champion team beat the team with one champion. Viva La Roja.
Now we can focus on the local game with the jungle drums beating about the move of Ben King to Hawthorn. First of all, kudos to the Hawks they have been unapologetic about going after the players they think they need and have done so very well for a long time. The issue though is the AFL and AFLPA on free agency. While the league has moved on the Father-Son and Academy issues compromising the draft. The biggest compromise on any efforts on equalisation has been free agency and that the most in demand free agents always finish up at the top clubs without them paying a fair price. The key driver for the draft changes was the Suns bounty a couple of years ago, it has amounted to little and they are about to get pillaged – again!
Also, let’s stop the charade and announce these decisions when they are made instead of feeding the media frenzy for months on end. If everybody “knows” , make it formal and let the clubs decide on their course of action and let them start on their own replacement strategy.
Fog Lifted (84%) vs Howe’s That? (16%)
A pair of in form teams to kick off the round. The Crows host the Pies with both having some key changes. Fogarty’s wild tackle was met with a justified penalty and was replaced by Tex, Mark Keane’s illness could have some effect down back. Jeremy Howe’s return provides Collingwood more height down back to deal with the likes of Walker and Thilthorpe. It is a great test for Collingwood, they have won their last five but none against any of the contenders, by the same token they have not had close to their best 23 in any of them. The Crows on the other hand do have a couple big scalps recently in Sydney and Melbourne but coughed it up against Port. Collingwood do love a road trip and especially in Adelaide so the heist could be on again, just think that Adelaide can look after the midfield well enough and that the smarts of Dawson, Rankine and Rochelle provide enough supply to the Crow forwards to win this one.
One Bad Turner (56%) vs Missing Holmes (44%)
Another game where player availability will be key. Daniel Turner has been a rock in defence for Melbourne is out with a rib injury, balancing that, Max Holmes will spend a number of weeks on the sidelines for the Cats. The Dees get their deserved game in the spotlight and it is one of consequence as they push for a top four finish. It is even more vital for Geelong where a loss would probably consign them to a wildcard game and no hope of a flag. A victory would keep them in the hunt for top six and some chance at glory. They are also missing Cameron, the Demons are undefeated at the G this year, it will take a mighty effort to beat them. Not sure the Cats are that mighty at the moment.
Murphy (99%) vs Harley (1%)
Will we get a good read on who is the better Reid? Not sure we will know definitively for another 100 games each, but they are both very good. Murphy’s team will win this.
Brodie (65%) vs Ben (35%)
Recent previews have covered Ben King’s accuracy, he might not have many shots but he is accurate. Although 2-6 in the last two games is against trend. At the other end this week the Blues have Brodie Kemp, he also gets his share of the footy and while not the number one forward has booted 25-20 for the season. What is missing from those numbers is the number of shots that have missed everything! Making matters worse for the Blues is that it is symptomatic of all their kicking for goal, even their best kick Mitch McGovern butchers too many. And it costs games. They panic in front of goals every time as supporters watch on in horror. If there is one thing for Josh Fraser to achieve, it is to channel Ted Lasso and make his players “believe”. In this game Hardwick will want to do the same for the Suns whose losing streak has become Carlton-esque. They are healthy relative to the Blues, who are still missing Weitering with Mckay and Pittonet doubtful. Surely they have enough ammunition and desire to win, or does Cripps don the cape like Bont and burn the Suns again. Just tipping the Blues through loyalty.
Fit for a King? (99.7%) vs Jack! (0.3%)
The Bombers played Giant Killers last week winning their second for the season, they take on Ben’s future home in Hawthorn. Can’t see Essendon backing up here.
Not Easy without Green (26%) vs Wounded Ducks (73%)
The two Sydney teams meet in a game of massive consequence for both. Both are wounded. GWS will be missing their talismanic leader Toby Greene, while the Swans are hurting from a painful defeat to the Crows last week. The Giants showed their bad side last week falling to the bottom side but they still are on the edge of gaining a wildcard berth. Sydney lost to a side last week that simply tried harder when it mattered, it would not be an effort level big Cox would want to see again. I doubt he will this week, along with Toby the Giants have a few other important players out, the Swans should be too good.
Sundowners (99%) vs Can of Pal (1%)
After downing the Suns the Dogs get to take on Richmond this week, they have feasted on the Tigers in recent times and expect to do so again.
KoTJ (98%) vs Blackout (2%)
The Kings of the Jungle are back in winning form and with a vastly reduced injury list. They take on the Power who are suffering from a number of outages. In particular Butters but a few others key players. Horne-Francis and Georgides coming back will help but not enough.
The Cooperage (23%) vs Tale of Two Kings (77%)
Another game of consequence to finish the weekend with the Roos taking on the Saints as they both push for a place in the top ten. North has seen the emergence of a pair of Coopers as they barrel along towards a finals spot. Harvey and Trembath both playing key roles for the team so far this season. Meanwhile it’s a King pair making news for the Saints with both Max King and Tom De Koning trying to get into this week’s line up. Much will depend on whether they make it, however it smells of a Clarko heist and just think North might cause an upset here.
Track Time
We are at Caulfield this week and we will keep it simple with just the quaddie numbers.
Caulfield
Quaddie
Leg 1 – 1, 2, 3, 5, 7
Leg 2 – 6, 7, 8
Leg 3 – 2, 6, 11, 12, 15
Leg 4 – 2, 6
150 Combinations (if they all run), a $30 investment will return 20% of the dividend
Go Blues!
Cheers, Sal
Read more from Sal HERE
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