Greetings All,
With The Heir taking to the altar this weekend, the reviews and pontifications are a little briefer, despite the league offering plenty of discussion fodder.
Valentine (28%) vs Ebony and Ivory (72%)
The Saints get to ‘host’ Collingwood at the MCG, their chances of success would be much greater in the Loungeroom but there is more than a footy match at play here as Danny ‘Spud’ Frawley is remembered and the scourge of mental health illness is highlighted. They are not without a chance as they pushed the Cats at home last week while the Pies have spluttered in both encounters. It must be acknowledged that the Premier’s conquerors have both looked very good. The Collingwood forwards have struggled, Ross Lyon teams never makes scoring easy so think the Saints might just get up here.
Walker in the Park (75%) vs Love Cats (25%)
The Crows got close last week but not sure how much to read into the result given the conditions the game was played in. Should be pristine at the Adelaide Oval where they take on the Cats who showed last week how tough they will be at home. The test on the road will provide a better idea of how they are placed this year. Taylor Walker’s inclusion should improve the Crows and expect them to have enough to account for the Cats.
Lonely Goater (19%) vs Lion Tamers (81%)
The Roos were monstered by the Giants last week and host Freo in the Loungeroom this week. Terrible luck for Joash Goater blowing out his Achilles and facing a year out. A great effort from Freo to take out the Lions last week despite a horror stretch with three match-ending injuries. The loss of Cox and McDonald will require some reshaping of key positions but expect they will still have enough to take this one.
Get Your Kicks (9%) vs The Max Factor (91%)
A few other issues at play, however a kick is a kick is a kick and there is no place for it. James Sicily should have a week off just as Trent Cotchin should have when the MRO created the mess. This doesn’t address the gang treatment of Sicily from the Bombers and whether that targeting was a deliberate and instructed tactic. As we know targeting of players is not allowed now after Max sooked up about his treatment in Sydney and was duly rewarded last week. Anyway, Melbourne win this.
Horseplay (96%) vs It’s Curtains (4%)
Do the Bombers bring back Sam Draper, if they do what happens with their insurance policy in Todd Goldstein? Will two ruckmen work against Sydney? Draper does appear to have enough forward craft to spend some time there. However, we saw a very sweaty SCG two weeks ago and might just happen again. The Swans’ biggest issue at the moment is whether they have room for Parker and Adams when they are fit. They should win this at home.
Counting for Naught (64%) vs All it Touk (36%)
The discussion around the use of Naughton at the Dogs continues, suspect it might disappear once Sam Darcy returns, helps that they play in Ballarat this week. The Suns are the lucky club to be drawn there, this will be their fourth visit ,they do have one win. On form they should win this also but suspect the Dogs to bite back after last week’s poor performance.
Shainess (26%) vs If it ain’t Boak (74%)
While the Tiges got close last week and were cruelled by injuries one player could make all the difference if he just got the basics right more often. Few players in the league can go with Shai Bolton but too often all his work is undone at the last step. He didn’t get the bounce of the ball in the last minute last week, but this really refers to some of the other simpler errors he made on the night that could have made the difference. If he can clean that up and the team stays healthy they have a great chance to beat Port Adelaide. Port will be celebrating Travis Boak reaching the 350-game mark. The addition of Soldo might have removed the need for Charlie Dixon to do as much ruck work. At the other end Tom Lynch will be better for the run and Noah Balta showed what he capable of up forward last week. Just giving the Tigers the edge at home in this one.
Oscar and Out (1%) vs Orange Crush (99%)
The Eagles were already up against it, the loss of Oscar Allen just makes the Giants a greater certainty.
Track Time
It’s Slipper Day at Rosehill where another four races have Group 1 status. Moonee Valley hosts the Melbourne meeting featuring the William Reid Stakes with Imperatriz returning after her defeat in the Newmarket. Spywire (R2, #1) has been keeping good company, this looks a suitable assignment. For those that got ripped off in the Quaddie when Frigid (R4, #12) was scratched at Flemington, there is the chance for some redemption as she returns here. Legacies (R5, #8) delivered last start after munching through the punter’s money at several of her previous starts. Looks to be a fair each way price. Mollynickers (R6, #4) continues to munch and $2.40 looks too short, prefer to give Grinzinger Belle (R6, #1) a mulligan for last start and back her here. Quintessa (R7, #12) takes on the boys in the Alister Clark and has come up short after a good effort in the Australian Guineas, prefer Verdad (R7, #4) at the price and has form over the distance. Would promote Sunsets (R7, #3) but drawn the outside at the Valley will make it very tough.
Race 8 – William Reid Stakes (G1, 1200m, WFA)
Impreratriz (5) meets her conqueror Cylinder (10) back at the scale representing a 6kg swing, more than enough to put her on top here. The Maher mares can be in the finish Bella Nipotina (6) has never missed the quinella here and I Am Me (7) has a strong first up record.
Selections – 5-6-10-7
The ninth is a raffle while Grand Impact (R10, #2) scratched last week and kicks off here might be short but might be too good.
Rosehill
Race 5 – Ranvet Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA)
Do we think it over or just select Think it Over (1) as the known commodity here? Has got the other known commodities covered, however the unknown Via Sistina (6) a Group One winner in Ireland and bought for a squillion must be considered. Waller/JMac make it worth consideration. Let’s see where the money goes. Reckon Zeyrek (4) and Military Mission (2) can place.
Selections – 1-6-4-2
Race 6 – Rosehill Guineas (G1, 2000m, 3YO SW)
Another match race? Riff Rocket (2) and Tom Kitten (4) will attract most attention and both look well placed here, however at the relative prices King Colorado (5) must have a chance. Was closing hard on Riff Rocket (2) two starts ago and Tom Kitten (4) needs everything set up right. While Cap Ferrat (8) was good in the same race and virtually untested last start.
Selections – 5-4-2-8
Race 7 – George Ryder Stakes (G1, 1500m, WFA)
After thinking about it the conclusion is not to go for Think About It (1), has all the form and credentials just seems too tough an assignment from the gate. Waller has chosen this race over the Guineas for Militarize (16) he does place them well and JMac on board doesn’t hinder chances. The other 3yo Veight (17) was not far away in the Australian Guineas so could measure up here, while Lady Laguna (15) can’t be dismissed. An interesting runner is Amenable (12) beaten last start but was heavily supported – stable must have high hopes – maybe the Doncaster.
Selections – 16-1-17-15
Race 8 – Golden Slipper (G1, 1200m, 2YO SW)
The second most over-hyped race on the calendar sees a short priced favourite in Storm Boy (1), 4 from 4 with margins looks hard to beat. But these are babies and we have seen plenty of unbeatables get rolled here. Not going to sit on the fence and pick Switzerland (7) also unbeaten – no matter who Coolmore wins. Cannot discount Hayasugi (13) never in the top picks but she keeps on winning, Coleman (10) will be better for having a run at the track last week.
Selections – 7-1-13-10
Race 9 – The Galaxy (G1, 1100m, HCP)
Passive Aggressive (10) came back brilliantly to win the Challenge Stakes and no reason she can repeat the performance. Ozzmosis (13) returns after his triumph in the Coolmore, certainly in this as must the mighty Private Eye (1) be. Has to lump a big weight but has done so before. GSOB saddles up Aft Cabin (5) who looks well drawn and has the best pilot.
Selections – 10-13-1-5
Melbourne Quaddie
Got nutted in the Race 9 raffle last week, will try and cover that here but the others might be skinny and a risk.
Leg 1 – 1, 3, 4, 12
Leg 2 – 5
Leg 3 – 1, 4, 6, 7, 9, 13, 15e, 16e
Leg 4 – 2, 10, 13
96 Combinations (with emergencies) for $30 returns 31.25% of the dividend.
Go the nuptials!
Cheers, Sal
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