Sal’s Preview 2025 – Round 2: It’s not me, It’s you

Dear Carlton,

 

It is with regret and sadness to let you know I am filing for divorce.  We have been together for over 60 years with several ups and downs, recent years have been challenging but somewhere a light shone although barely flickering at times.  Our early years were full of joy and for that I am most grateful, the last 25 have been difficult but we have got through them together.  The flicker beamed late in 2023 then through the early part of 2024, alas to dim at the end.  We kept it burning blaming injuries, unfortunately that was just a mask for a more insidious problem.  The Blues are just too easy to play against and when the going gets tough the Blues just go.  There is no resilience to adversity, no care for each other and no self-confidence to execute the most basic of skills.

 

The inability to halt opposition momentum has been a trait from before Voss, surely it had to be in the top two things to address.  Especially as it cost a place in the 2023 Grand Final, five goals up on the Lions just before ¼ time and then capitulation conceding 11 to 4 for the remainder.  Perhaps a few too many pats on the back just for the effort to get there.  Sydney and Hawthorn arrogantly displayed the difference in pace against the Blues last year – the Tigers did it last week.  Incredibly all the cart horses that were run past last week remain in the team this week.

 

Breaking up is hard to do, at least there is a choice and my club has not been ripped away and relocated.  But is there a choice?  It’s hard to give up who you love and reality is unless it is ripped away the allegiance will always remain, just some weeks are harder than others and this week has been one of the hardest but there looks to be more to come!  So just can’t submit the papers quite yet, but with so many Thursday and Friday night games for the Blues performances like that will make for plenty of lousy weekends and there might be another divorce I need to deal with!

 

So now I get to preview them.

 

Leave it to Charlie (20%) vs Moore Please (80%)

 

Michael Voss is expecting a Collingwood like rebound after last week’s embarrassment with only one change to bring in Charlie Curnow.  The problem is that the opponent is Hawthorn and not Port Adelaide.  An interesting comparison in stats is that the Blues were dominant last week but butchered everything and the Tigers were too quick the other way. The Bombers were not quite as dominant and led the in most categories, Hawthorn were just to clean, quick and efficient with Moore, Watson and Ginnivan creating havoc up forward.  It should playout similarly, though the one thing that could play into the Blues hands is wet weather which might be enough to bridge the gap in pace.  Here’s hoping but suspect it won’t be enough.

 

100 from the West (26%) vs Gee Whiz (74%)

 

Plenty of squawking about the number of games Collingwood gets at the G, we can’t say too much when the opposition clubs want to host them there.  The Dogs celebrate 100 years in the competition and get a Friday Blockbuster but against the Pies.  They may have planned and requested it but could not have planned they would be without a handful of their best players.  The Pies get de Goey back and should have team good enough to win this one.

 

Riddled (32%) vs Life of Riley (68%)

 

The Bombers lose a couple in Ridley and Langford but do get the bonus of facing the Crows at the MCG.  They have not won a game there since July 1, 2017.  What probably irks Adelaide more is that they have only played 10 home and away games there since, would more familiarity bring success?  The last time they met the Bombers there was in 1995!  Can they get this one?  Last week’s effort gives them a great chance, they are healthy and have a potent forward line with Fogarty and Thilthorpe.  Would be great for the Crows if Taylor Walker becomes the 3^rd banana.  Reckon their best is better than the Bombers and the hoodoo gets put to rest.

 

Don’t Rock the Boak (98%) vs Lynched (2%)

 

Port losing to Collingwood was not a shock but the manner in which they capitulated was, Richmond winning was a shock but deserved.  Suspect Port at the Adelaide Oval will reverse the fortunes of both teams this week.  Travis Boak becomes the games record at Port Adelaide across their entire history, a grand effort.  Their prospects enhanced with the suspension of Tom Lynch.

 

Triple Jack (7%) vs The Fourth Jack (93%)

 

Jacks Sinclair, Steele and Macrae line up for the Saints while the Cats only have one with Jack Henry slotting in a key defensive post.  The Saints shocked Geelong in the Loungeroom last year and will want to put up a better performance than what was dished up last week, while the Cats just purred through the line at home against Freo.  St Kilda’s best is capable, and Ross Lyon knows how to make it difficult at this venue, but just think they are missing too many forwards.  Respect Geelong have a few injuries but not many out of their best 22.

 

Seeing Starcevich (99.7%) vs Reid About it (0.03%)

 

A worrying sign for Brandon Starcevich with another concussion, certainly hope he can recover and get back to footy.  His Lions host the Eagles who copped a hiding at home to the Gold Coast and expect a similar result this week.  Just for a change Harley Reid is in the news!  The flop he took was ridiculous, the bigger issue is who at West Coast can get him to stop doing that stuff?

 

In Good Nick (14%) vs May Day (86%)

 

The Roos could not quite get there against the Dogs but had a winner in Nick Larkey, he might get limited opportunities but rarely misses.  Having a couple of other big forwards will help spread the opposition defence and could be handy against Melbourne who are missing their rock in the backline Steven May.  Melbourne was good against the Giants but could not quite get there.  Despite his opponent kicking the winning goal Max Gawn ruled the rucks, it will be a great test for Xerri to see how he competes.  If he can match Max then the Roos are a chance but suspect he might just come up short and Petracca, Viney, Oliver can win enough to get Melbourne home.

 

Licked (68%) vs Mauled (32%)

 

Freo were the cream, and the Cats lapped them up last week, back at home and getting a couple back will make them more competitive.  They host the Swans who weren’t mauled by the Lions this time and would be pleased with their efforts given their personnel challenges.  It doesn’t get better losing Melican and McInerney – should put this one in the Dockers favour.  Interesting challenge for Cox and Sydney if they do go 0-3, bearing in mind they have had a tough schedule.

 

Track Time

 

A ridiculous program at Moonee Valley with 11 races on the card, with the main one being the William Reid Stakes.  However, the spotlight heads to Sydney with the most overrated race in Australia The Golden Slipper plus another four group one races.  JMac is on the favourite in four of them.

 

Moonee Valley

 

Race 9 – William Reid Stakes (G1, 1200m, WFA)

 

Provided the backmarkers have a chance then Jimmysstar (1) has a great chance here, showed promise when he first arrived before some average runs.  Looks back to his best and might be a class above.  No reason why She’s Bulletproof (7) can’t repeat the dose of the Oakleigh Plate and chase him home.  Schwarz (4) has slightly different form bet led and won easily in the Australia Stakes, this is a step up.  Giving Rey Magnerio (3) a mulligan in the Newmarket and will trying his heart out.

 

Selections – 1-7-4-3

 

Rosehill

 

Race 5 – The Ranvet Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA)

 

Via Sistina (6) should have this field covered but the short price will keep the punters away.  William Haggis brings Al Mubhir (4) here, he has had good success attacking the Sydney Carnival, expect improvement from Zarakem (1) but still might need further and Fawkner Park (2) was only two lengths away from the favourite last start.

 

Selections – 6-4-1-2

 

Race 6 – Rosehill Guineas (G1, 2000m, 3YO SW)

 

Punters were left reeling in the Randwick edition where Broadsiding(1) went under at $1.60.  Reckon JMac might want that one back and we get a better price this week.  Happy to stick, but there is a limit and a question about the 2000m.   The unknown against this lot is the VRC Derby winner Goldrush Guru (2) no question on the distance and a good run in the Australian Guineas.  Swift Falcon (3) keeps on chasing the favourite home does the extra 400m get him past?  Reckon Plymouth (5) could be an improver after a solid effort in the Australian Guineas.

 

Selections – 1-2-3-5

 

Race 7 – George Ryder Stakes (G1, 1500m, WFA)

 

Fangirl (10) is a deserved favourite but is the JMac tax too great?  Prefer the price of Ceolwulf (1) who missed a run and then ran OK over an unsuitable journey, this looks right up his alley and Joe Pride rates him among the best in the land.  No reason why Tom Kitten (2) can’t produce again after saluting in the All Star Mile.  Respect the form or Royal Patronage (3) after winning the Canterbury Stakes, but putting Gringotts (5) ahead who just runs so well and WFA actually gives him weight relief.

 

Selections – 1-10-2-5

 

Race 8 – Golden Slipper Stakes (G1, 1200m, 2YO SW)

 

This year’s crop looks pretty even and as we saw in the Blue Diamond there is a  need to look wide.  Like the chances and the form of the Bjorn Baker filly Within the Law (12) 3 wins and a 2^nd from 4 starts, the only concern being she is a backmarker but there is usually enough pace in a race for this prize money.  Wodeton (8) was so impressive in his first start and has maintained favouritism despite going under twice since, still somewhat enticed by that performance.  Tempted (13) followed up an impeded run in the Blue Diamond to win the Reisling – needs to overcome the inside barrier and Devil Night (2) beat her home in the diamond so must go in here.

 

Selections – 12-8-13-2

 

Race 9 – The Galaxy (G1, 1100m, HCP)

 

Can the colt keep it going?  Private Harry (13) is undefeated but steps into open company at the top level here.  Just looks well weighted here as second pick is also a 3YO Colt but lumbering an extra 3kg in Growing Empire (6), gets JMac and has experience in open company.  Briasa (11) has a winning record that cannot be ignored and respect for Lady Laguna (4) attacking this first up.  Nothing would surprise!

 

Selections – 13-6-11-4

 

Quaddie

 

After success last week we will stick to Melbourne see how we go at the Valley.

 

Leg 1 – 1, 2, 4, 5, 9, 13

Leg 2 – 1, 3, 4, 7

Leg 3 – 7, 8, 11

Leg 4 – 3, 10,  12

 

216 Combinations, $30 investment will return 13.9% of the dividend.

 

Go Blues,

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

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