Sal’s Preview: Round 19 – The Party is Nearly Over

 

Greetings All,

 

A magnificent tournament comes to a crescendo on Monday morning with Spain taking on Argentina.  Both teams have been terrific at finding goals late in games so we might get another nail biter.  The Spanish purely outplayed France in the semi final shutting down their playmakers, defending with calm and efficiency and delivering the killer blows up forward.  Then English hearts were broken once again by Argentina scoring twice late to come from a goal down.  The shift of Messi to the right wing was crucial in setting up both goals, but they created so many quality chances after conceding the opener.  Fernandez sent in a couple of warning shots, England then hung further off him before landing the stunning equaliser.  Then for the winner Messi went right instead of the usual left and delivered a centimetre perfect cross that eluded the tall English defenders for Martinez to nod in.

 

The final is a contest of not dissimilar styles, both teams are pleasing on the eye with crisp passing and clever interplay.  They have superstars at either end of the spectrum with Messi at 39 up against Spain’s 19yo wunderkind Lamine Yamal.  The Argentine game is built around Lionel while Lamile is just another weapon in the Spanish arsenal.  This represents the advantage Spain has.  While the Argies have plenty of goal scoring threats they are reliant on Messi for all the creativity, the Spaniards have so many other creative sources.  Predicting a 2-1 Spain victory.

 

Apart from the odd umpiring and MRO faux pas not much to worry about while the World Cup is on.  By the way did you hear Wimbledon is all over, Australia won another World Cup, there is a bike race on  and Bazball is dead! 

 

Close Call (78%) v Not So Hastie(22%)

 

An intriguing encounter to open the round with the Cats hosting the Saints at the Cattery.  Geelong have made plenty of changes bringing in plenty of extra running power and forward pressure with the likes of Close and Miers back in favour.  While St Kilda are fairly steady with Hastie making way for clark as the only change.  This is a pivotal game for both teams who have relatively comfortable runs in after this neither of them travelling outside of Victoria.  For the Cats though it is critical as a club that had top four aspirations a few weeks ago and now finding themselves in a wildcard fight.  St Kilda have done enough to win recently without inspiring, they haven’t won at the Cattery this century, while Geelong are battling they should get back on track at home.

 

Cur Now (72%) v Berryied(28%)

 

The Swans could not hold out the purple haze, but must have been pleased with Charlie’s efforts.  Not only kicking for goal with confidence but playing up the ground and using his field kicking skills and athleticism should all bode well in the long term.  They will need to be at the fore as they host the Crows who are looking to get themselves into a top four position.  The continued improvement and contribution from Sam Berry has added depth to the midfield.  His inside work complementing the dash provided by Dawson and Rankine.  Was Sydney’s capitulation last week about them or Freo?  I suspect it was more about Freo and back at home should be strong enough to hold out Adelaide at home.

 

UnLarkey (19%) v Petty Theft (81%)

 

What could have been for the Roos if Nick Larkey could have got a couple more on target?  But not to be and sitting 13th they will need a strong performance against Melbourne.  In their favour is the Demon’s dislike for the Loungeroom, not having beaten a Melbourne based team there since 2023.  Doubt that really will be an issue and suspect Melbourne’s quest for a top four finish will be enhanced at the end of this one.

  

Fly Blown (63%) v  Rain Checked (37%)

 

Craig McRae has had plenty to say about technology and list management this week, will be keen to put that behind as this Pies take on the Blues.  They got a reminder last week of how much is still to be done.  They did not adapt to the conditions last week and paid the price against a slick out fit.  The Blues have not fared well against the Pies lately, on form they should give themselves some hope.  However without Pittonet and possibly Hewett, they will lack some inside grunt needed against the likes of De Goey and McReery, let alone the polish of Daicos and Pendlebury.  So while Collingwood has challenges at either end of the ground, suspect they will have enough midfield dominance to win this. 

 

Star Struck? (1%) v The Allen Key? (99%)

 

The Eagles host the Lions with questions over whether a couple of players will front up against their former teams.  Brandon Starcevich has avoided concussion protocols and should be right to go, Oscar Allen is fit but where does he slot into a line up that is on a five game winning streak.  Suspect that will become six at the end of this one.

 

Cumming Along (0.3%) v Inherited the Ruck(99.7%)

 

With Ned Reeves injured Lloyd Meek has got the clear number one position in the ruck and used it to full effect last week against a first gamer.  Expect Nankervis to present more of a challenge in those contests, expect the game outcome to be well in his favour.  At least for the Tigers there is some progression with the youth in the team and none more so than Sam Cummings.

 

A Dim View (60%) v Up Hill with Dale Down (40%)

 

Another intriguing contest between a couple of now middle ranked teams.  At the beginning of the season the Suns and Dogs were among the pace setters, how things have shifted.  For the Dogs much can be put down to injury and they have continued to hang in, maintaining a positive record.  While Dimma had to back track after declaring the Suns season as over after last week’s loss.  The manner of the losses is most alarming.  They get Ben Long back and are at home, they should be good enough to get this one and break the losing streak.

 

Sunday Specials (2%) v Briggs It On(98%)

 

The Bombers got to close out last week and at least kicked a few in the last quarter.  They host the Giants who are much less predictable, but their worst is probably better than Essendon’s best.  Kieren Briggs dominated the Cats with no recognised ruckman and might do the same again here.  

 

Track Time

 

It’s the final meeting of the season for Flemington highlighted by the Deane Lester Flemington Cup.  A race Deane championed to get back on the program before his death and great that it carries on in his honour.

 

Flemington

 

A disappointing field with only five acceptances in the opener with the babies stretching out to 1800m with a berth in either the Derby or the Oaks for the winner.  Prefer to back Notified (R1, #2) over a maiden at an odd-on quote.  We get another 2YO event with a short priced favourite and a bunch of first starters, it will be beer and sanga time but might have a little interest in Panchenko (R2, #9) a winner at her only start.  Madiyya (R3, #5) has been a costly conveyance of late.  Has been running well at this track before pulling up lame last start.  Right in this provided she has recovered.  Maher has both Cherish Me (R4, #2) and Missapprehend (R4, #8) nominated with the same jockey, expect one to be scratched and a good sign for the other.  Tough to pick one in the next a premiership chasing C Williams gets on Zebra Finch (R5, #13) closed well here last start.

 

The Flemingtpn Cup opens the quaddie with Bold Soul (R6,#1) as the selection getting a 3kg turnaround over his last start conqueror.  A few more in the quaddie!  Barari (R7, #11) takes on the older brigade but looks well placed and gets a claim with an in-form apprentice.  We get another shortie in the next with C Williams on board the german import Think Giant (R8, #12) closed well at his first start in Australia and gets plenty of weight relief.  Street Artist (R9, #11) was caught wide on a leader’s track last start but still beat all but one.  Has a wide barrier here which might be an advantage down the straight. 

 

Quaddie

 

Leg 1 – 1, 3, 4, 6

Leg 2 – 3, 4, 11, 12, 13

Leg 3 – 2, 3, 7, 12

Leg 4 – 4, 11, 13

 

240 Combinations (if they all run), a $30 investment will return 12.5% of the dividend

 

Go Blues!

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

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