Greetings All,
A poorly executed penalty shootout saw the Socceroos exit from the tournament with plenty of critique and criticism in the process. They qualified for the knockout rounds through strong defence and a couple of viper-like strikes against Turkiye, which was justifiably hailed as a success. It however masked the big issue with the Socceroos which needs to be addressed and might come at some cost in the short to medium term. The team has always been the team of battlers who are disciplined and work hard but lack the finesse to play with the big boys. That attitude needs to change, the squad has players competing at high levels across the globe and those skills need to be utilised. Take the game to the opposition and instead of 90% defending bring that figure to 70% or lower and be more of a threat. If you’re in offence more often then the less you are in defence. It’s an attitude not just for the top level, but all levels of the game here and will produce even more exciting players and a better chance to mix it with the elite.
As for the competition, we are in the quarter finals and European teams have dominated with only Argentina and Morocco the other contenders. Egypt would think Argentina shouldn’t be there after some decisions didn’t go their way, not sure I heard the same concern about decisions in their win over Australia. Looking forward to the quarters where France look ominous but there would be no better story if the vikings from Norway were to get up.
Now for the local stuff. So the MRO found that Miller and Maynard’s contact with the umpire was not careless, yet sufficient to fine them for “Engaging in any other act of Misconduct”. So exactly what was that act? They both found the umpire inconveniently positioned in their pursuit of engaging in misconduct. Maybe the contact was not intentional but it was certainly above careless and should have been sent to the tribunal for adjudication. The AFL at least should have taken it to appeal. Just a note on fines, they are clearly just a revenue raiser and have zero effect on behaviour. Toby Greene has brought his total of fines to almost $53,000, but still no change. A few extra weeks off that cost him and his team just might have made the difference.
Mason (79%) vs Dean (21%)
It’s the battle of the Big Cox with Mason out on the ground for the Dockers while Dean pulls the strings in the box for the Swans. Shame that these two only play each other once in the season proper, but suspect we might get a rematch. An interesting move to replace Darcy, but it’s one that will ensure both he and Cox do everything to be in the team when the whips are cracking. Sydney get their firelighter back in Tom Papley who will provide a bit more spark up forward and can raise the effort in the middle when required. Charlie dined out on an undersized defence last week, he averages 3.45 goals a game against the Dogs compared to 2.18 for his career. Not sure the likes of Pearce, the other Cox and Ryan will be as easy to handle. At the other end the Freo talls will stretch any defense. Sydney were more convincing last week and will make this tough, but suspect against GWS it might have been the right game for the Dockers to lose and they will hit back at home.
Nick (85%) vs Harry (15%)
We see a couple of the young tyros of the game this week in Nick Daicos and Harry Sheezel, wouldn’t we love to see them go head to head. A highly unlikely scenario given the propensity of both teams to feed these guys the ball. They get plenty themselves but for the team the more times they have it, better results come their way. However it’s their offsiders that swing this the Pies way. They are likely to have Scott Pendlebury back while North lose their hard nut inside in George Wardlaw.
Sunk (71%) vs Locked In (29%)
Tough news for the Saints with Jack Sinclair out for the season, his presence was not required last week as they had their way with the Bombers. This week they host Port who are coming off two impressive home victories. Georgiades gets plenty of attention and the ball, Jack Whitlock alongside, is going very nicely. Harry Dean is getting plenty of plaudits as a young key defender, Jack deserves similar kudos as a key forward. As for the game, the Saints tuned up last week and get to play in the Loungeroom. Port are in good form, something they struggle to maintain, the midfield is excellent and Sweet is providing a great contest in the ruck. The other complication is that the last three between them have gone with the visitors. Just think the Saints at home will have plans to quell the key players for Port and win this one.
Strung Along (38%) vs Smithereens (62%)
The Giants took another big scalp beating the Premiership favourites in Freo, with Jake Stringer having a day out with seven and Toby running amok in a best on ground performance. Will the Cats be next? The Lions had their measure last week and the loss might have gone into belting territory if not for the efforts of Patrick Dangerfield and Bailey Smith. The coaching panel are not ones to panic but they will understand heading to the cattleyard won’t be a simple assignment. The Cats have lost four of their last five and will be desperate to turn it around, the Giants are fighting to stay in the hunt for September but have proven their best beats the best. Trusting that the Giants can hold their form and keep the Cats at bay this week.
By George (24%) vs Mraz Matazz (76%)
The seven in a row Blues face their biggest test since the roll began up against the Hawks. Hawthorn will be keen to rebound after last week’s loss in Launceston. One could argue they have already started to reduce the margin to 35 points from a game high 96. One bright spark was the debut of Noah Mraz who did as much as any to hold up the early Demon onslaught. The asterisk against the Blues seven wins is that they have only beaten the two bottom teams by less than a goal. They have been boosted with the return to favour of George Heett and will be further with the return of Harry Dean. The Hawks get their magic man back in Nick Watson and is probably the reason they are favoured here. He is the player that only needs five minutes to win the game as he did before going off injured against the Giants. Expect a great contest.
Just Dawsome (86%) vs Dusk (14%)
When do we put a fork in the Gold Coast season? They have now lost six in a row and despite a better effort against the Pies it was a game they should have won. After gaining some ascendancy and momentum at home, they let it slip and were always playing catch up after that. They go in against the Crows with their best forward in Ben Long. Adelaide got the job done against the Eagles with Jordan Dawson again showing his leadership qualities. Suspect they will be on show again here and dish up loss number seven for the setting Suns.
Broken English (98%) vs To be Francou (2%)
Sydney exposed the Bulldogs last week. Tim English not being able to handle the physicality of Grundy and being forced into defence. Also exposing Luke Beveridge’s bloody mindedness. English has been a regular goalkicker and has some forward craft, his key defenders were undersized and could not handle Curnow. Not getting a kick at the other end was Aaron Naughton, who could match Charlie athletically and physically plus have the speed and skills to assist in rebound. Surely it was worth a try. Maybe they will this week hosting the Eagles against whom you can do a few experiments. While they gave the Crows too big a start, fans would have been pleased with the debut of Oliver Francou. Back in the loungeroom the Doggies should get back on the winners list.
Hoo Roo (99%) vs Lynched (1%)
A tale of two forwards! Jacob van Rooyen was terrific with 5 against the Hawks, while Tom Lynch missed basic shots at goal by significant margins. Looked more like a technique issue than the yips. The Tigers need him to kick those to have any hope, still don’t think it will be enough.
He’s no Kai-ber (99.9%) vs Farrowed Brow (0.1%)
Kai Lohman showed again what a big game player he is, slotting five against the Cats. His Lions host the Bombers who despite being poor last week saw good signs from Farrow and Robey. Put the kids to bed early; this might not be pretty.
Track Time
The WFA Monash Stakes highlights the card at Caulfield. With little rain but very cold temperatures it will be interesting to see how the track plays. Suspect it will stay in the soft range and with the rail out six metres could give the on-pacers an advantage. Let’s take a look at the quaddie legs. Worth looking at the Williams and Mott rides also, Craig leads that race 52-49 with only five metropolitan meetings remaining in the season.
Caulfield
A quality apprentice with a 3kg claim gives Decalogue (R6, #1) a great chance to take the opening leg. The next is the Monash Stakes and it’s a handy field assembled and a wide open market. Reckon the two mares have a great chance here, they have both been competitive in much higher grades than this. Bellatrix Star (R7, #9) and Miraval Rose (R7, #10) probably favour the former with the better soft track record. Ten Commandment (R8, #10) looks well placed and well weighted here, the inside draw could be an issue late in the day so watch carefully. J Mott gets back on First Chorus (R9, #9) likes give in the ground and a previous winner here.
Quaddie
Leg 1 – 1, 2, 3, 7
Leg 2 – 2, 6, 8, 9, 10
Leg 3 – 3, 6, 9
Leg 4 – 4, 9, 12
216 Combinations (if they all run), a $30 investment will return 13.89% of the dividend
Go Blues!
Cheers, Sal
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