Greetings All,
A draw was all that was required for the Soceroos to claim second place in the group, Paraguay seemed more than happy to oblige and accept that a draw would still have them qualify. And with subsequent justification after following with a win over the highly fancied Germany and pushing on to the Round of 16. The Socceroos have been to the final 16 before but not via a knock-out game and in fact have never won a knock-out game at the World Cup. They take on Egypt in the early hours of Saturday morning. The Pharaohs have never made it through the group stage until now. The Socceroos have a great opportunity to progress with both holding similar FIFA rankings. In addition there is some concern on the fitness of Egypt’s key playmaker in Mo Salah, he has returned to training and is likely to take his place but may not be quite 100%. Let’s hope for a great showing from the Socceroos and set up a potential rematch with our conquerors from the last World Cup in Argentina.
Now for the local stuff. The pundits have been rejoicing the end of the byes and that the ladder now has “parity”. Not sure we can ever use that term to describe the AFL ladder with all the imbalances that are endemic in the fixture, but we can say at least that all clubs have played 15 games. While not a proponent of the “Wildcard” it has made the seasons of a few clubs longer with only West Coast, Richmond and Essendon out of the race; although a lot would need to go right for Port 10 points in arrears from 10th. Top six candidates probably finish at 10th spot with Collingwood a game and a half out. The Blues and Suns are 2 games adrift both with tough finishes to the season, St Kilda a further game back could be the bolter. Apart from the trip to Geelong they play all their games in the Loungeroom and Sydney the only other top 6 opponent.
Domesticats (79%) vs Out of Hibernation? (21%)
It’s no secret that Geelong has a significant home ground advantage, just wondering if that advantage is screening a couple of issues. They are 6-0 at home, however 3-6 away from the venue. A closer look suggests probably not, although they might need to work on their late game drills. Four of those losses were by 9 points or less, the other two just poor performances and every team can have a mulligan or two. The three away wins were thumpings including over their guests this week in the Lions. Brisbane did some work in their break, tweaked a couple of things and demolished the Swans. This game will be the real test. A loss would not be fatal, but they will want to ensure they have the effort and the system against a likely contender. The Cats get a couple of guns back in Smith and Stewart while Brisbane have remained conservative around their injured players and probably wise playing on a chilly night at Geelong. Brisbane showed a few changes last week, there is no better coaching team than Geelong’s to pick those apart and take away any strength they developed. While Scott might hold a couple of things back, Geelong can take away enough and playing at their fortress should win this.
The Party’s Over (84%) vs A Work of Artie (16%)
Errol may be back but the season is over for Joel Amartey, fortunately for the Swans Hayden McLean dominated the VFL last week after being dropped and should be an adequate replacement. They were torched by the Lions last week despite the heroic efforts of Chad Warner. They take on the Dogs this week who are in a much healthier state than when they last met. The Dogs will also take in the confidence of winning their last two at the SCG, can they make it three? Coming in fresh will certainly help however, suspect that Sydney will be smarting after last week’s loss. Suspect Ladhams will also make way to get another runner in the team and Cox will try and get the expressway down the corridor going again. If the Dogs can turn it into a parking lot they could win, but just think Sydney might have had the loss they needed to have.
The Other Bailey (4%) vs Second in SA (96%)
Not all the Baileys are at the Dogs or were there, Bailey Williams is doing a great job leading the ruck at West Coast. While they went down to the Blues last week his effort was typically lion-hearted, his improvement a leadership a big positive for the season. They take on the vanquished from last week’s showdown. Adelaide were comprehensively outplayed by their bitter rivals. West Coast will regain the services of Kelly to strengthen the midfield and they are a much better side at home despite coughing a couple they should have won. Just think Adelaide are much better and have beaten West Coast here in their last three encounters, if they can regain their form they win this.
Disappearing Act (82%) vs Steele Works (18%)
The Hawks head down to Launceston missing a bit of magic with Nick Watson missing, they may be boosted by the return of Jack Gunston. They won’t be missing Will Day who has had such a tremendous last couple of weeks, expect the Demons to put some work into him with either Jack Steele or Tom Sparrow sent to limit his influence. Melbourne were OK in Adelaide and will be very keen to get back on the winners list. Would have thought they could do it at the MCG, but they have had challenges on the road and the Hawks at York is tough , especially having your first visit.
Clarriety (12%) vs Fre Flowing (88%)
Not much has gone right for GWS this year but the recruitment of Clayton Oliver has. Did everything possible to lift the Giants over the Hawks last week, but losing two before half time was always going to make it tough. Unfortunately not many are coming back yet and they face the all-conquering Fremantle. They toyed with Gold Coast last week, this should be a bit tougher away from home. However just on relative injury lists the Dockers should win here.
Tropical Fever (68%) vs It’s Goey Time (32%)
Gold Coast have now lost five since returning from their Darwin sojourn and they have copped their share of criticism. To a certain extent it is deserved, but perhaps a fraction more perspective is required. Their last four opponents are all contenders for the title, as put earlier the Cats are purrfect at home as are the Dockers. So this is a genuine test for them at home against the Pies. Collingwood’s form has probably been as predictable as anyone this year, beating who they should and coming up short against the contenders. The one piece of form that has been consistent of late is Jordan De Goey, his consistency adding another dimension to an already potent midfield. Gold Coast may bring Read back, while the Pies are likely to get a boost with the return of Maynard. This is the definitive litmus test for the Suns. Win this and they are almost back on track, lose and they know they sit with the also rans. Respect the Pies on the road but think Gold Coast will respond and get back into finals contention.
Timmy Time (3%) vs Byrneing Bright (97%)
Tim Taranto should get relief from the job ap forward this week with Tom Lynch set to return in another learning experience for Harry Dean. The Blues are now six in a row and heady territory. After the disappointment of missing the goal after the siren against the Pies, Talor Byrne has learnt and become a vital part of the Blues. Applying great pressure in the front half another 18yo being entrusted with an important role. There would be nothing the Tigers would like more than to bring this winning streak to an end, they have proven more than capable against Carlton in recent encounters. Just think under Fraser these are different Blues and should be good enough to win this and incredibly balance the books.
Ta Ta Tsatas (6%) vs Holler for a Marshall (94%)
The Blues and Bombers have gone on divergent trajectories since removing their respective coaches, so on that score this comparison may be unfair. Plenty has changed at the Blues, but there are a couple to raise here. First of all trust in the youngsters, Fraser has given them important roles to play and they are delivering. Then selection integrity Ollie Hollands was one of the Blues best before his injury but still comes back via the VFL till a place is there for him. Essendon does not appear to have made any changes. The obvious case is Elijah Tsatas proven ball winner, but must do a couple of things wrong and always appears to be the first scapegoat. Surely he gets in this week and they give him a run at it for a few. I am sure there are more. Anyway they will get beaten by St Kilda who are pleased they held firm on Rowan Marshall who will assume the main ruck duties with the injury to TDK.
SA Champs (83%) vs The Other Harry (17%)
Port proved again that form and ladder means nothing for the Showdown. Or is their form not that bad? Despite being 5-10 their percentage is still over 100. Their best is really good such as this game and the Geelong heist. They have lost five by less than a goal and put in a couple of shockers. One of those shockers was against North Melbourne who they host this week. Everyone apart from Harry Sheezel just did their job last week to beat Essendon. Harry had his own footy with 43 possessions (13 contested). It is very early days but are we seeing the next incarnation of Scott Pendlebury? He isn’t that quick but no-one lays a hand on him, his decision making is elite and disposal to match. This is just the type of game that Port can cough up and the Roos will want to be better than last week. Reckon Kangas can get up here.
Track Time
Flemington is the venue for this week’s lottery. The wet tracks are producing some big price winners, good if you can find them but not easy. With rain about and cool weather expect we will be running on a soft 7 at best, with the rail back in the true position the inside might be OK till it chops out and they need to get wider.
Flemington
Give the babies a miss in the opener, but would be following the favourite in the future win or lose. It’s babies again in the second but over a mile Craig Williams and Jamie Mott are fighting for the jockey’s premiership worth looking at whoever they are on. Willo is on Marwooba (R2, #2) coming off a win in Sydney. Conditions should be right for Duchess Zou (R3, #4) gets the wet track and suspect outside draw didn’t help last start. The 3YO stayers race is a beauty Decalogue (R4, #1) looks the best horse but is weighted like it, prefer to go Each Way on Brilliantezza (R4, #5) relatively new on the scene and progressive. Lost some on Losesomewinmore (R5, #1) Williams goes on hopefully we can win more.
Hopefully we have a bank for the quaddie which kicks off with the stayers over 2500m. Vegas Jack (R6, #4) has the picket fence going, this is a step up but capable. If it gets bottomless then Wuddz (R6, #8) who just ploughs through it can win. Al Duca (R7, #3) meets his last start conqueror on much better terms and can get Williams another victory. Barari (R8, #12) won over this journey last start in similar conditions, no reason she can’t back it up. Hard to go past the ATM in Clevor Trever (R9, #1) has weight to carry and his first try at 1600m, but just keeps winning.
Quaddie
Leg 1 – 1, 2, 4, 8
Leg 2 – 1, 2, 3, 6
Leg 3 – 2, 7, 11, 12, 13
Leg 4 – 1, 2, 4
240 Combinations (if they all run), a $30 investment will return 12.5% of the dividend
Go Blues, Go Socceroos!
Cheers, Sal
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