Greetings All,
In the last week we have seen a couple of teams that are heavily dependent on their superstars. The Argentine national team’s success is driven by the play of Lionel Messi. Locally the Saints might not quite have the success but are certainly putting Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera at the centre of their drive to glory.
The Argentine strategy is completely built around the little superstar. He can go wherever he likes, his teammates do all the defensive running for him, they make sacrificial runs to provide him the space to work in and give him the ball wherever possible. Results so far have been excellent and he has scored all their five goals in the tournament.
Watching St Kilda last week, Nas was played behind the ball for most of the game. Admittedly due to the early loss of Sinclair also very creative with the ball. He plays in a similar manner to Messi. Can go wherever he likes, relies on teammates for the hard defending, block and make space for him, give him the ball whenever possible. He had the ball 44 times last week and usually found a teammate with the possession, yet the opposition coach didn’t care. Only 6 of those possessions resulted in scores.
Does Ross need to spend the week off working out how Nas can make life more Messi for the opposition? Can he change his defence first mentality and play his star more in front of the ball than behind? He might be worried about his defensive personnel but as a defensive minded coach he needs to trust his system. Nas might then only get 25 possessions but reckon they would create more headaches for the opposition and a few more goals for the Saints.
As for the Argies – they will get through this group but will need to win five more to lift the biggest prize in sport. Suspect they could come undone against one of the better organised European teams that can shut him down and present a threat at the other end.
Then for the Socceroos, where will you be at midday on Friday? The existing three points are likely to be enough to get them through to the round of 32 win, lose or draw. At least a draw is likely to make the chances of getting through the first knock out much better, a loss likely to result in a match up with Germany.
Now on to the local stuff!
Classy Darcy (42%) vs Return of the Gulden Boy (58%)
Darcy Wilmot has become so important for the Lions, becoming yet another critical link up player for them. He will be critical up against the Swans who get one of the league’s stars back in Errol Gulden. In an interesting move they also bring in Ladhams for McLean to provide stronger ruck support against the Fort-Draper combination. It does take away the McLean threat in front of goal. Makes it critical that Curnow competes well against Andrews, hasn’t kicked a goal in his last two against Brisbane. Not sure either team was at the top of their game before the bye, they will have made a few tweaks. Sydney have won their last two against the premiers and are probably more trustworthy. However Brisbane can lift themselves into the top six with a win and look to have a better balanced line up now that Hipwood has returned. Suspect they can get it done at home.
Day Breaks (42%) vs Sprung a Leek (58%)
Another comparison for Nas is Will Day. Played in the middle for the Hawks, had less than half the possession count but had ten score involvements.played. They host the Giants who couldn’t hold out the Blues last week. Interesting to see Leek Aleer in the ruck, his athleticism could be an asset but will be tough against the Hawks with two genuine rucks. Their game is a bit of a mess with teams able to stop the tsunami and not finding another way to score. GWA could challenge at their best, but we are just not seeing it enough while Hawthorn shows theirs on a regular basis and should win this.
Harry Who? (88%) vs Watered Down (12%)
Jake Waterman’s errant kicking for goal has a real cost against the Roos, following his great 2024 season and disrupted 2025 he is getting plenty of it this season with 31 goals. The problem is the 37 behinds in the tally. By comparison Coleman leader Ben King has had only 54 scoring shots but 42 of them are goals. Jake could be matched against Carlton’s other Harry. Harry Dean has quickly become a cornerstone of the Blues defence and a fan favourite with his inherited fearless attack at the footy. Could he become the first key defender since Daniel Talia to win the Rising Star? As for this game, it is exactly a match that the Blues can cough up when in form. It will be a good test of their improved composure and they should get the win.
Swadling Along (82%) vs Hopping to it (18%)
Sam Swadling made a great entry to the competition with excellent moments in the win over Port. He faces the Tigers this week whose injuries woes increased this week with Jacob Hopper becoming just that, being diagnosed with a stress fracture of his foot. The Pies will prove too strong for the cubs.
Ratted Out (77%) vs Keane As (23%)
The showdown return this week with the SA teams on opposing trajectories. Port struggling to get momentum in the season and hampered further with Ratugolea and McKinley suffering season ending injuries. The Crows are on the rise with alternative selection issues. Keane made a great return and they have Butts, Hinge, Cumming and Worrell all set to come back. No matter their predicaments, the passion of the showdown usually sees competitive games and surprise results. Expect similar early but the Crows should win this one running away.
Overdone it with the Xerri (56%) vs The Solo Man (44%)
The Roos were able to split their western jaunt with a pair of contradictory performances, it came at some cost with the injury to Tristan Xerri. Against most teams that would be a major issue, they face the Bombers this week. Dean Solomon has his work cut out if he wants the main role, he gets some help with Kako, Parish, McGrath and Caldwell available. Not sure they will be enough.
Fre of Injury (18%) vs Playing Like a King (82%)
Not sure it can get any better for Fremantle, the only player on their injury list is Sam Sturt who could still be available. They are at home to Gold Coast who have their midfield being placed in the spotlight, for good reason too. However, reckon Ben King is escaping scrutiny. As good a kick for goal he is, there is very little contribution in supporting others and has laid only 7 tackles in the 14 games this year. Freo wins.
Track Time
We head to Caulfield this week with a couple of runners to watch early before heading to the Quaddie. The Tatts Tiara closes out the Group One races for the season at Eagle Farm.
Caulfield
Giving Skipper’s Canyon (R4, #5) another try, will be better suited coming back to 2000m. The next sees Gilded Water (R5, #4) return after having a vet issue the reason for the last start failure. We open the Quaddie with Set Me Loose (R6, #13) relatively new on the scene and building a good record. First Chorus (R7, #7) didn’t hit the right note for us last week, the extra distance here will hopefully have her in tune. Big Swinger (R8, #7) looks well drawn and well placed, but has plenty of competition. Can’t ignore Bazaball Rewarded (R9, #5) keeps on winning at tasty prices.
Quaddie
Leg 1 – 1, 4, 5, 13, 15
Leg 2 – 7, 10, 14, 15
Leg 3 – 2, 7, 10, 13, 16
Leg 4 – 5, 6, 9
300 Combinations (if they all run), a $30 investment will return 10% of the dividend
Eagle Farm
Race 8 – Tattersall’s Tiara (G1, 1400, Fillies and Mares WFA)
Not the greatest race to close out the Group Ones, but very competitive. Manaal ((3) at her best is good enough for this and was good in open company last start. As was Splashback (1) in the Stradbroke and right in this with the speed on. Tuileries (4) comes here off a good win at Scone and interested in Ahha Ahha (11) at odds at her second start for Waller.
Go Blues, Go Socceroos!
Cheers, Sal
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