Greetings All,
The party kicked off in Mexico City and continues with all teams having played one game. What a treat we had Wednesday morning with three of the biggest stars doing exactly that in their matches in Mbappe, Haarland and Messi. Our focus though will be early on Saturday morning as the Socceroos take on the USA. After a terrific win against Turkiye, can the dose be repeated against the locals? They showed complete ambivalence toward Australia before the tournament but have not been quite as chatty once the game began. Maybe they don’t need to; their demolition of Paraguay was one of the more complete performances we have seen in the tournament. Our defence will need to be every bit as resolute as the previous game to keep them out while in attack be just deadly. While the tough defence and stinging counterattack has served us well, would love to have more control in midfield and set the tempo of the game.
Now on to the local stuff!
Nothing Amiss (42%) vs Bailed Out (58%)
The Cats lose Bailey Smith along with Tom Stewart and Gryan Miers not coming up will make it tough against the pacesetters. On the other hand Freo has one of the healthiest lists and healthy competition for spots. Mason Cox still holding Sean Darcy out of the side. Geelong were very good against the Suns denying them their game plan and winning well. This one though is away from the Cattery and not sure Scott will want to play all his cards in expectation of another meeting in September. Expect the Dockers to have enough dominance in the ruck and give them first use of the footy to win this one at home.
A New Beau (42%) vs Outgunned (58%)
Dimma was true to form in the media this week. The umpires copped it post-match and he used the “Big Boy” line at his midweek “chook feeding” . He will bring mid-season selection Beau Adinsall into the line up for his debut. They hosted the Hawks who will still be without their talisman Jack Gunston but Tom Barrass will return to defence. The Suns did get the rough end of the pineapple with the adjudicators but they paled into insignificance relative to the way they played. A star-studded midfield just has to do more when they don’t get the ball, the Cats were able to run away unimpeded. Hawthorn has the midfield and rucks to do the same, we will get to see how effective the “big boy” talks were. Hawthorn has a week off but will still be smarting from the loss to the Dogs, not sure whether it will stop the “smartarsery”. It didn’t help either Turkiye or Nick Watson. Just think Gold Coast back home might have the edge.
Just Dawsome (88%) vs Hail the King (12%)
What an extraordinary player and captain Jordan Dawson is. His leadership and contribution for the Crows under deep personal duress has been brilliant. This week he should get support with the return of Rankine and Walker as they host the Demons. They are cock-a-hoop with their choice of coach who now has them in the top four. Will be a challenge to stay there though with their poor record away from the MCG and not many tougher away fixtures than the Crows in Adelaide. Suspect they will swap their order on the ladder this week.
The Missing Cog (82%) vs Hitting the Marc (18%)
The beginning of the end of Voss’s tenure was at the catteyard in 2024 where the Blues capitulated after a strong opening quarter. They went into the game 2nd on the ladder, never recovering from the loss, scraping into eight through other results rather than on their own merit and mercilessly bundled out by the eventual premiers Brisbane. They will be up against it here. The Giants were good against the Saints last week and should be strengthened with the return of Coniglio. The Blues will still be without Weitering but should regain their running machine in Ollie Hollands. The Briggs-Pittonet clash will be critical, Pittonet has picked up the rack mantle well after being second fiddle to TDK over the last couple of years. Harry Dean has been superb in defense but will need plenty of support this week with the number of weapons the Giants have. Suspect there might be too many and GWS put an end to the Blues streak.
Climbing the Mountain (77%) vs Not so Rozee (23%)
Jack Buller had a false start with the Pies but is gradually improving, doing well to boot a couple against the Dees on Big Freeze Day. His Pies will host Port Adelaide. Unfortunately they have announced Connor Rozee will not be back this year. A great effort against Sydney just falling short will give them confidence. Collingwood needs to replace Maynard in defence but should get Sidebottom back. Port were so good against the Swans, while the Pies have been faltering. However, at the G, Collingwood have won their last four encounters and expect this record to stretch to five.
The Other Toby (18%) vs Jack was Back (82%)
The Roos split their western adventure with much thanks to Jack Darling returning to Perth and booting four. They face the Tigers who were good against the Premiers last week and will be reinforced with the return of Toby Nankervis, his battle with Xerri critical in this game. North’s youngsters have a couple of years on the Tiger Cubs and expect them to win this.
Giant Killers (56%) vs Libbaration (44%)
St Kilda finished too well for the Giants last week and host their co-tenants the Bulldogs this week. They are on the up and do not leave Melbourne for the rest of the season a win here will put them right on track for some post season action. The Dogs got their punch on the nose from the Crows last week and need to respond. The pending inclusion of Libba will certainly stiffen their midfield. Their challenge though is the dependence on Tim English, soundly beaten last week left their midfield impotent despite the talent they have in their. He has a good record against TDK. The real key will be Nas and how the Dogs can limit his influence. Trusting that Bevo will have a fair plan and reckon his team might bounce back here.
Track Time
We are back at headquarters this week. Some big and competitive fields making selections tough but worth it if we can find a couple.
Flemington
The rail is out 11m which might just give the leaders an advantage on the circle races, but in general Flemington gives most a chance. A big field in a 2YO contest opens proceedings – good luck! Decalogue (R2, #1) chose the Sydney option a couple of weeks ago and won, gets relief with the claiming apprentice and looks well in here. The staying contest is a tough one but we are well into Paddy time with the Payne stable going very well so happy to be with Bold Soul (R3, #1) here. We have an odds-on pop in the 3YO sprint but drawn inside, happy to be with Jenni the Ninja (R4, #8) on an each way basis. Thebelmontgangsta (R5, #14) delivered on his promise last week, reckon he can go on with it.
Hoping First Chorus (R6, #8) will be on song to get a good start to the quaddie. The straight track specialist Losesomewinmore (R7, #3) gets an outside alley and should run well again. Sticking with Paddy in the penultimate race and Jimmy the Bear (R8, #2) to back up from his previous win. Then Paddy at the double with Paddypie (R9, #8) to get us home.
Quaddie
Leg 1 – 2, 4, 6, 8
Leg 2 – 2, 4, 6, 13
Leg 3 – 2, 3, 4, 5, 13
Leg 4 – 2, 3, 8
240 Combinations (if they all run), a $30 investment will return 12.5% of the dividend
Go Blues, Go Paddy, Go Socceroos!
Cheers, Sal
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