Greetings All
That Essendon feel they are able to request extra assistance to help them out of the doldrums they have created of their own volition shows how stupid a decision it was last year to grant such assistance to the Eagles. They also found themselves in a predicament entirely of their own making but nevertheless the AFL came to the party. The Eagles won a flag only eight years ago!
That makes the Essendon case appear strong given the 25 year drought. Most of their issues stem from poor list management decisions. In particular the trading of players into the club, it is probably too painful for Bomber supporters to list the failures. Suffice to say, none of the players brought into the club in recent years has become a fan favourite. Or is it player development? Massimo D’Ambrosia was on the fringes at Essendon and is now a fan favourite of the Hawks. That may also be part of their poor record in the draft, they have been incredibly unlucky with injuries to a number of their draftees also and to a certain extent you do need to get lucky in the draft.
After the Eagles last year they would be crazy not to ask. The challenge for the AFL, who are trying to uncompromise the draft, is how they can possibly say no.
Wherever Hugo (27%) vs Blue Bunnies (73%)
Hugo Hall-Kahan gets to make his debut for the Crows but it is at a price, he and Taylor Walker replace the two players Adelaide can ill afford to lose. Rankine and Thilthorpe are their difference makers and do stuff that others can’t. Which gives a great opportunity for a Cat Bounce. Carlton matches up well against Geelong and they always seem to get the Blues on a rare run of form. Despite not playing well there was only a four point margin. While their last game in Adelaide was also poor, their record at the venue is overall pretty good. They are the least two the Crows can afford to have out and reckon Geelong will be able to get back on the winners list in the first of the rematches of 2026.
Winning the Battle (86%) vs Sellwood You Star (14%)
Steve Quartermain’s classic commentary came straight to mind as Michael Sellwood soared sideways into the pack for a match saving grab against the Pies last week. Might need a few more of those efforts against the rampant Hawks this week. Josh Battle has led the defense through the challenge of not having Tom Barrass in the team without much damage. He is back this week as is Nash with one of the healthiest lists in the competition. The Bulldogs are not so healthy but will welcome back Cody Weightman to add further spark to the forward line. They move out of the pristine Loungeroom heading across town to open air of the G. As a venue their record is fair at best. The intrigue being that they rarely play the Hawks at the G, only three times since 2016. It hasn’t mattered where lately with the Hawks winning the last fove encounters and expect that to stretch to six this week.
So Larkey (8%) vs In the Purple (92%)
The Roos got the double chance at goal late after Larkey missed his foot and Zurhaar was still allowed to take his kick and extinguish the Suns. Take ‘em when you ‘em! They take their home west to Bunbury and face the all conquering Fremantle. Suspect a large contingent of the Purple army to head south and make it a home game. Finn O’Sullivan’s concussion mid week has ruled him out of the western swing, that will hurt North’s ability to tag. Fairly critical against the Dockers. The Xerri-Jackson contest should be a beauty. Not sure about the rest of it though and expect another Freo win.
Un Larkey (73%) vs Wounded Pride (27%)
While the Suns were stiff about that kick, they put themselves in the situation to be trolled over by the Roos. Not yet a team we can trust. They host Brisbane who have become a team with trust issues. They do have at least seven of their best 23 on the sidelines, but there seems to be a bit more to their slump. A game against the local upstart might give them the impetus, but not so sure it can be turned on that simply. The Suns can’t use the Darwin excuse coming off the bye and should be primed for this. Brisbane seem broken defensively and think the Suns can exploit that and win this.
Reuben it in (33%) vs Lachie’d In (67%)
Part of the West Coast improvement can be put down to the solid form of Reuben Ginbey. Always appears undersized in the key defensive post but very rarely beaten. They have a few others also in the improve and will finally get Brisbane premiership player Brandon Starcevich into the line up. It is up against Port another of the premature rematches – they played each other back in round three. Lachie Jones returns for the Power. How will Carr look restrict the influence of Harley Reid? By the same token Butters and Horne-Francis also demand attention. An intriguing contest for 15th and 16th. The Eagles shocked Port winning by 2 points in round three, this one won’t be as much of a shock.
Cub Killers (95%) vs Lyonised (5%)
Unsurprisingly Charlie had a field day as the Swans took apart the Tiger Cubs last week. It could be a sign of things to come as it looks like percentage will be critical in establishing the barrier draw for finals. This week they host the Saints who need both the win and percentage. A win over higher rated opposition will provide much needed nourishment, among their peers they are well placed on percentage but will not want any damage to it. While they have copped plenty over last week’s performance, Hawthorn are top four bound and St Kilda have been missing a number of their key players. None more so than Nas and he should return with Owens and Ryan this week. Not sure it will be enough to beat Sydney at the SCG, but certainly expect Ross to make it a scrap.
Come What May (4%) vs Well sCrippted (96%)
A most peculiar match up with both teams controlled by interim coaches. The last time this occurred is closely related to this one. Back in 2019 David Teague led Carlton against a Rhyce Shaw led North Melbourne. Rhyce had taken over from Brad Scott! Essendon lost another to injury in Archie May last week, but at least should regain some experience with Durham, Ridley and Redman set to return. They take on the resurgent Blues coming off a terrific victory over the Cats much thanks to the heroics of Patrick Cripps. Back controlling stoppages and a superb match winning mark and goal. The Bombers would love nothing better than to get one over the Blues and the experience inclusion will help, but the Blues look to have their game together and on form should be too strong.
It’s Goey Time (54%) vs Make it King’s Birthday (46%)
The footy will be the sideshow on Monday as we remember Neale Daniher with Big Freeze 12. But it will be a pretty good sideshow as both teams try and get back on the winners list. The Pies nearly got it done on the back of Jordan De Goey’s work last week, a repeat of that performance will make them very competitive. They will go in with confidence knowing they have had the Demons measure in their last five encounters. The Dees would like to make it Steven King’s birthday with a win here. After a great opening they have hit a road bump in their last two, need to get back their forward line efficiency and accuracy. Helps being back at the G where they are undefeated this year. It’s a tough one to pick but just going with Melbourne expecting Gawn to help their midfield get control of the game.
Track Time
We head to Flemington this week. We are getting right into the winter racing season but are still getting massive fields for our Saturday meetings. Tough on the punt but very competitive racing. The rail is out 8m which might have some effect however the weather will be the critical factor. With the volume of rain predicted it could be in the heavy range, however it drains so well, suspect it will be in the soft range. Expect they will look to get off the fence as the meeting progresses and outside alleys favoured down the straight. The meeting plays support to Eagle Farm where their carnival continues with the Queensland Oaks at the top level.
Flemington
The opener is a 2YO event and a good time for a coffee, sandwich or first beverage. While not necessarily a betting proposition admire the naming of Profumo (R1,#5) a colt by Home Affairs out of Simply a Dream. The Waller import Nobler (R2, #6) won his last two, looks progressive and capable here. Winter time is Paddy time, Patrick Payne produced two winners last week and Dimaseer (R3, #7) looks a great chance here, will need to get past the flying Flying Done (R3, #1) but should have the weight advantage. Biologics (R4, #8) has experimented down the straight, but yet to see a rain affected track. The outside is probably a good draw and well weighted. First Chorus (R5, #4) is a worthy favourite but getting pretty short, Lovely Cut (R5, #6) will that lovely cut in the track and may represent better value as an each way play.
A wide open start to the quaddie, give a great chance to ElouYou (R6, #4) coming off a good run last week but will be plenty more in this leg. The next is similar with a couple of imports looking well placed, top selection though is Shockletz (R7, #10) coming off a couple of good runs. Going with the new filly on the block here with Rockette (R8, #13) a step up from the country races but the Price-Kent combination places them pretty well. Will take a good one to get past Celsius Star (R9, #3) who also get the advantage of and outside gate. Really intriguing runner here in Moby Dick (R9, #12) now with Gavin Beddgood after the Price-Kent had seen enough. Has talent, but!
Quaddie
Probably one of the toughest seen, track conditions might see a few pulled out.
Leg 1 – 4, 5, 6, 9, 13
Leg 2 – 2, 5, 10, 15
Leg 3 – 1, 3, 7, 13, 14
Leg 4 – 3, 9, 16
300 Combinations (if they all run), a $30 investment will return 10% of the dividend
Eagle Farm
Race 8 – Queensland Oaks (G1, 2200m, 3YO Fillies SW)
Despite JMac not riding this Ben Melham picks up the ride on Panova (1), anything close to her performance in the Australasian Oaks wins this. A pair of Misses from the Maher yard look the main dangers in Fireball Miss (3) and Paltrow Miss (4). While Solid Gold (10) backs up from a handy run in the Derby.
Selections – 1 – 3 – 4 – 10
Go Blues,
Cheers, Sal
Read more from Sal HERE
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