Sal’s Preview: Round 1 – It’s Victoria’s turn, and racing tips for Caulfield and Rosehill

Greetings All,

 

The Northern Exposure experiment seemed to work well with grounds full and three of the four home teams getting their season off to a flyer.  Will be interesting to see how the teams that played go against their opposition playing their opener.  What did not go so well was the MRO panel – How George Hewett plays this week beggars belief and then for the retaliator to get the same punishment – ridiculous.  In times past we have it all described as a “love tap”, in these times a punch is a punch.  The NRL have it right “you throw, you go”.  As for Laura Kane’s explanations of the decision – let’s just leave it as flaky.

 

But George does play along with every other club.

 

By George (81%) vs Dusted Off (19%)

 

Terrible luck for Sam Docherty with a third ruptured ACL, reckon the Blues can cover the skill but not quite as sure about the poise and leadership.  Plenty of rapture for them with respect to the comeback last week, nevertheless their insipid opening to the game should not be overlooked.  The Tigers also had a poor start which was beyond recovery but certainly an improved second half.  That along with the inclusion of Martin, Lynch and Nankervis gives them plenty of hope to cause an upset.  The concern for them being that those three were held back due to only having a five-day break.  Expect a better performance from the Tiges but if the Blues can produce their best they should prevail.

 

Howe’s That (76%) vs Grundge Match (24%)

 

McRae has spent the week deflecting about the Pies performance pointing out them winning the inside 50 count and having more scoring shots.  Reckon he would have had a bit more to say internally about some of traits we expect from the Pies that were missing in this contest.  Respect must also be paid the opposition who will be very hard to beat anywhere let alone on their own farmyard.  They face the other Sydney team who just did as they do and ground the Demons into submission.  Terrific performance from Grundy who wore down Gawn and will be keen to perform well against his other own club.  The challenge for them is to win at the G where they lost all five games there in 2023.  Howe’s return will stiffen the defence that gave up 13 marks inside fifty last week and the defensive work rate will lift across the ground to get the premiership defence back on track.

 

X Factor (60%) vs Jack’s Back (40%)

 

The Bombers will welcome a few handy recruits in Xavier Duursma, Jade Gresham and Ben McKay, while the Hawks bring back Jack Gunston and we wait and see which other recruits open the season for them.  The Hawks also have injuries to some of their key players.  Just the Bombers should have the weapons to open the season with a win.

 

Best in Show (99%) vs Z Factor (1%)

 

While X moved to the Bombers Zane Duursma will make his debut for the Roos who take on GWS at the Farmyard.  Likely to become the toughest road trip and North are not quite up to it.

 

Domesticats (75%) vs Lyon Eyes (25%)

 

Two of the toughest clubs to evaluate through pre-season, both with high aspirations but will be heavily dependent on the health of their lists.  The Cats have invested heavily in the draft with no players coming in from other clubs while St Kilda have gone with a mix bringing in Dow, Henry and Bonner from other clubs.  They look set to unleash their top draft pick Darcy Wilson on the Cats.  While there are plenty of unknowns, there is one known fact Geelong is hard to beat at home.  The Saints have not done so this century and expect that to extend.

 

King’s Land (68%) vs UnTaylored (32%)

 

Ben King’s 5 and Matt Rowell’s dominance put the Tigers away, the Suns have the chance to back that up over Adelaide who will be missing both Tex Walker and Riley Thilthorpe up forward.  Reckon this might make the Crows path to goal too difficult and the Suns to go 2-0

 

Take a Bowey (67%) vs In Harmes Way (33%)

 

The Demons might have the advantage of a week under their belt but pay the price losing the courageous Bowey to a nasty shoulder injury.  By the same token the Dogs have had the chance to look at Melbourne plus any intel from James Harmes who will debut for them.  The Dees forward entries were back to bombing last week, was that to do with Sydney pressure and the SCG dimensions or just going back to form.  The G gets them the chance to rectify.  Max was worn down not just by Grundy but the rest of the Swans who made his night tough, will English and his Dogs try the same?  They’d be mad not to!  The Dogs will also unleash Riley Sanders to add to their midfield, should be a great contest in there.  In the corresponding game last year the Dees proved too good and just think they might again here.

 

Going BeZerk (99%) vs Reid About It (1%)

 

Will Kenny’s investment in tall defenders make the difference in 2024?  Esava and Zerk-Thatcher will certainly provide him more options.  No matter who they will be too good for the Eagles who let Harley Reid loose for his long-awaited debut.

 

The Oscar Goes to (27%) vs No Kidding (73%)

 

Docherty’s injury will hurt the Blues, however the loss of Keidean Coleman could leave a huge hole in Brisbane’s ability to move the ball.  He became their key weapon off the backline last year with his elite disposal and decision making and was ripping the Blues apart early last week.  Who take that distribution role for the Lions?  Zorko?  They head to Fremantle where Oscar McDonald looks likely to line up for his third club.  They have some key injuries and none more so than Sean Darcy and with that expect the Lions to be able to win through the middle and take the points.

 

 

Track Time

 

The feature in Melbourne is the All Star Mile at Caulfield this year, there were issues in previous years with horses not up to the level being voted in.  So they changed the system and made it tougher, the problem is the best milers have still stayed away and the 20% drop in prizemoney hasn’t helped.  In the end we could call it the two star mile but should be an intriguing race still.  While at Rosehill the mares contest the Coolmore at the top level.

 

Carini (R1, #7) will start pretty short in the opener, reckon Mankayan (R1, #5) presents better value.  Happy to stick with Maher/Zahra in the next withSock Nation (R2, #7) but probably more of a watch and learn race.  Wolfy (R3, #10) will be better for the first up run and provided they can run on is a great chance.  And if they do run on then Lempicka (R4, #3) could get over the top of them – just concerned about the pace in the race with a small field.  Not sure about being a betting proposition but very keen to see First Immortal (R5, #4) return.  Suspect they will be looking to get him a Melbourne Cup ticket in one of the upcoming qualifying races.  We get a shorty in the 6^th with Bold Bastille (R6, #2), pulled up lame at her only failure will take a very good one to beat her.  Seonee (R7, #3) is a query first up but her best is right up to these.

 

Race 8 – All Star Mile (1600m, WFA)

 

Not a group one race yet mainly due to the feuding between NSW and VIC, this renewal probably not worthy of the status anyway.  The superstar in the field is Mr Brightside (1) his best just wins, the other star in the field is Pride of Jenni (12) who will set a cracking tempo she held on in two group ones in spring and might just do it again.  Cascadian (2) is a consistent performer for GSOB and reckon Holymanz (11) could put in a good showing after finishing 2^nd in the Blamey.

 

Selections – 1-12-2-11

 

The penultimate is an absolute raffle where I will be happy to watch but need to find a few for the quaddie but can skinny up the last where Rey Magnerio (R10, #9) looks well weighted and drawn well.

 

Rosehill

 

Race 8 – Coolmore Classic (G1, 1500m, Fillies and Mares HCP)

 

Tough to go against Waller/McDonald but reckon Yonce (11) is a good each way chance especially if the track starts suiting leaders.  Zougotcha (1) was back in form last start as was Tropical Squall (6) but she has a tough barrier to deal with.  Not discounting Foxy Frida (8) from the chances scratched from a much simpler assignment last week for this.  Could have missed the lot.

 

Selections – 11-1-6-8

 

Quaddie

 

Missed out on the skinny leg last week but reckon we should be OK with either Mr Brightside or Pride of Jenni.  How do we get the others?  Will be wide in the 1^st and 3^rd legs and just a couple in the last.

 

Leg 1 – 2, 3, 4, 6, 11

 

Leg 2 – 1, 12

 

Leg 3 – 1, 5, 6, 7, 14

 

Leg 4 – 9, 10

 

100 Combinations for $30 returns 33.33% of the dividend.

 

Go Blues,

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

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