Greetings All,
The AFL trade saga is all done with 90% of the trade completed in the final 30 minutes. There is no issue with clubs negotiating and discussing their requirements and desires, but the actual trade period can surely be reduced to two days.
It is racing season, and this weekend just about provides the best we have on offer with the Caulfield Cup and a terrific support program in Melbourne. James Cummings has a great chance to emulate his grandfather in the Cup with Zardozi. Meanwhile Randwick will host The Everest and possibly the King! How sycophantic naming a race after him. Like the chances of the juveniles in the $20M charge.
Caulfield
Last week we saw the on-pacers favoured, I expect a fairer track to be presented this week with the major factor being the amount of rain that will hit the track before and possibly during the meeting. Ultimately expecting it to be rain affected and in the soft range. The first will give some guide with the Waterhouse-Bott trained Catoggio (R1, #4) likely to take up the running, his win at Geelong was on a soft track and reckon he might be able to control the race in pinch it. The Gothic Stakes sees a bunch of handy 3YOs on the way to the Carbine Club on Derby Day, happy to invest in Reserve Bank (R2, #6) just went under to his stablemate in the Danehill and should handle the extra ground. The same age group go around in The Classic (or, as I prefer, The Norman Robinson) as a lead up to the Derby, liked the way Scary (R3, #5) closed off in the Super Impose prefer it at the relative price over his conqueror Keeneland (R4, #1). A few other nice types here also. The fillies go next in the Ethereal as a lead up to the Oaks Killcare Beachgirl (R4, #5) gets a 2kg swing on the favourite here for a 1.2 length beating, not many better front running jockeys than T Clark. Niance (R5, #9) flies fresh, Jordy Childs is 3 from 4 on her and can handle soft going and can win the Alinghi. The Thousand Guineas prelude has some very nice fillies, none nicer than Ameena (R6, #1) does have a wide draw to contend with but her best wins this.
The quaddie kicks off with the Millennium Sprint – and while it might only be the 3rd best sprint race in Australia on the day it is full of intrigue! The best of Estriella (R7, #1) wins this, however we have not seen the best of her yet this campaign. If we had, I suspect she would be running in The Everest. Prefer to go with Rey Magnerio (R7, #8) well drawn and down in the weights. Mitch Freedman has chosen Caullfield over Randwick for Skybird (R8, #4) she finally draws a good gate and can turn the tables on Revolutionary Miss (R8, #2).
Race 9 – The Caulfield Cup (G1, 2400m, HCP)
With all the top weights choosing not to run, we are left with a very compressed spread of weights for the race, as the Melbourne Cup will be also. With the likes of Deny Knowledge and Duke de Sessa we should get a good tempo. Buckaroo (2) suffered the unkindest cut of all, but is now racing in great form, no doubt can win but there has to a query about him getting the 2400m. There is no query about the distance for Zardozi (13) for GSOB three wide all the way in the Metropolitan and just touched out, respect also for her conqueror on the day in Land Legend (8) although some query in soft going. At a longer price Muramasa (12) is a great chance, a classy galloper and very well weighted. Would have rated Elyass (7) higher but for the poor draw, if the track chops out and they are coming off the rails he can win. Will be watching the Japanese horse Warp Speed (4) with the Melbourne Cup in mind, suspect will prefer a dry surface. The European 3YO Sayedaty Sadaty (18) was 5th in the Epsom Derby and might just have beaten the handicapper.
Selections – 13-12-8-2-7-18
The Caulfield carnival closes out with the Moonga and taking Globe (17) on trust here, was highly touted as a 3YO returning after a long lay off. His best is very competitive here.
Quaddie
A tough quaddie and would go as wide as affordable, however we are going to skinny up the other three legs to get plenty going for us in the cup.
Leg 1 – 1, 2, 8
Leg 2 – 1, 4, 9
Leg 3 – 2, 6, 7, 8, 12, 13, 18
Leg 4 – 2, 17
126 Combinations, a $30 investment will return 23.8% of the dividend
Looking North
Race 7 – The Everest (G1?, 1200m, WFA)
Whether the race has Group One status or not it has a Group One field, the decision to be made as to whether the 3YOs are up to beating the more seasoned sprinters. Reckon they are and specifically Growing Empire (9) is well drawn giving K McEvoy plenty of options and he knows how to win this race. Storm Boy (11) should give them something to chase but must start well, while Traffic Warden (10) will be storming home. Of the older brigade I Wish I Win (1) is more than capable, Bella Nipotina (4) has a tough draw to overcome but there are not many tougher than her. The engagement of Zahra on Giga Kick (2) might unlock the key for him who has looked short of his brilliant best since returning from injury.
Selections – 9-10-1-11
Race 9 – King Charles Stakes (G1, 1600m, WFA)
Chuckie might even make to the track for the race PVL has sucked up to him with. Going for C Maher to get the big double with Pride of Jenni (9) returning to the scene of her greatest win. Not sure they will let her get too far in front and if any of them can catch her suspect it would be Fangirl (10). The Epsom winner Ceolwulf (6) is in fine form and Tom Kitten (8) was not too far behind him. Also giving a chance to Amelia’s Jewel (12) provided she gets a dry track.
Selections – 9-10-6-8
Go Jenni, Go
Cheers, Sal
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