Greetings All!
The Blues and Port are unlikely to be threatening the top end of the table at season’s end but it appears they will pay the highest price for the recent plundering of the top end talent in the draft from the northern states’ academies. There are two sets of selections at play in the one draconian change, the father-son selections and the academy picks. The two should be handled separately and while Father-Son provides the more established clubs some advantage this has significantly diminished. If the rules are to change here surely the clubs should have at least two years notice given the prospects they are currently working with.
The other set is the academy picks. Specifically the northern academies. The Queensland teams have plundered the top picks from the draft and it would appear to the detriment of competitive balance. However they have also invested heavily in those academies with the results benefitting not just the clubs but the game overall. Participation in QLD is now higher than in South Australia. We should be looking at the day when academies are not required, but we are not there yet. If the change in system restricts selections from the academies too much will the clubs continue to maintain the investment levels? If that drops away does game promotion from the clubs also fall away?
Surely a better solution would be to gradually increase the price for an academy recruit over the next ten years. Ensuring the clubs continue to develop footy in the community hopefully to a point where participation is on par with the southern states and heading north, south, east or west is just a part of life for any draft pick. GWS is an outlier here; they have struggled to make inroads to the target community and their academy seems well behind the others.
This week we get to see everyone play!
What’s up Doc? (87%) vs Enter the Bear (13%)
Sam Docherty spoke as if for many Blues fans – a lot of ranting and stating the obvious but all critique, no specifics and no solutions. As for his “mate” who chose to air it publicly the less said the better. In the same manner as last year’s opening round loss to the Tigers not many have paid the price at selection, selection integrity is a major issue. Young players in Moir and Reidy paid the price while experienced players with known limitations such as Young and McGovern continue to be selected. They face the Tigers who have no issue bringing in young players Sam Grlj in for his debut. Missing Vlastuin and Prestia will present a challenge for them, but they do have a smattering of experience among the youth that will make them dangerous. Expect the Blues to respond from last week but certainly concerned about the pace and pressure Richmond will bring to bear.
Zach Attack (6%) vs Scissor Lifters (94%)
After waiting all these months for Zach Merrett to face his suitors, they go and take the headlines with the news of a couple of pranksters busted in the US. Its cost Dylan Moore a leadership position, suspect his partner Connor Macdonald’s price might be to run with Zach. The Hawks were disappointing last week and have made no secret that their effort levels were not up to standard. Expect that to improve this week and while the Bombers might be feisty the Hawks will be better for longer.
Mr Ed (88%) vs Phoenix Rising (12%)
Ed Richards gets to game 150, him taking the lead in the middle has made the Dogs more dangerous with Bontempelli able to be released to wherever the team needs him. A challenge for all opposition coaches. Last week’s victory over the Lions certainly put to rest the question of their ability to defeat highly ranked teams. They still did concede over 100 points but it was against an offensive juggernaut. They host GWS who found one last week in Phoenix Gothard who impressed along with experienced recruits in Oliver and Laverde. Their big forwards contributed 13 of their 19 goals, that could challenge the Dogs. However they have slayed the Giants in recent times losing only once to them since 2020, expect that record to continue.
Sunburnt (76%) vs An Extra Cox (24%)
The Cats get back home after the Suns showed why they will be so dangerous this year. They host Fremantle who get Mason into the club to add to Brennan. How will they deploy the big American – or more importantly how will it allow Luke Jackson to play? The Cats won comfortably in the corresponding fixture last year, assuming Cameron and Dangerfield come up a similar result is expected.
Blue Murderers (84%) vs Curtain Time? (16%)
The Swans got their game going and blitzed the Blues, they host the premiers who they also defeated last time they met. They have been one of the best performed teams since they got the band back together late in 2025. Brisbane were good last week but not efficient enough and paid the price, however there were other prices to pay with injuries to Morris and McCluggage plus suspensions to Andrews, Gardiner and Bailey. How can they cover Curnow, Amartey and McDonald let alone Heeney when he goes forward? Will we see the introduction of Sam Draper to the Lions? Could be handy against Grundy who took control of the ruck contests last week, he plays his 50th in Red and White. Brisbane are rarely champions in March, the Swans are flying and at home and expect them to win here.
Mr 55% (60%) vs Not so Keane (40%)
Mr Fixture is a regular target but he does himself no favours with this one. The Swans and Lions are box office and scheduled at the same time as Collingwood/Adelaide – mind boggling! Equally so is Scott Pendlebury, Dan McStay plays game 200 and he is not even half way to Pendles! He was on the ground for 55% of the match, yet won the 8th most disposals, 10th ranked player according to AFL Fantasy (not much credence for that, led Goal Assists and was last in Metres Gained with only 31. Nick Daicos led that with 844. We are all waiting for Pendles to slow down, you can’t go any slower than he does. He has 6 games to go to beat Brent Harvey’s record, 500 is not out of the question. His Pies take on the Crows who are looking for redemption from their straight sets exit from 2025. Nothing better than getting against Collingwood at the G. But they will be without Keane, Curtin and Rankine. Expect them to a feisty opponent but the home side to come out on top.
The Horne Coming (29%) vs Buttersed Up (71%)
The Roos take on Port in the loungeroom in the early Sunday slot – not great for either team. It does give the Roo fans the first real chance to let their feeling towards Jason Horne-Francis be known. It is their first encounter in Melbourne since his departure. How will Xerri perform under the new ruck rules? Suspect he will adapt well and be very competitive. Just needs to make sure he doesn’t put it anywhere near Zak Butters who goes on display for his suitors this week. Port should have enough to win this one.
Can’t Pickett (29%) vs Party Pooped (71%)
Not sure how many it will be but plenty of new blood for the Dees this week, possibly with another Pickett. Hopefully the Kosi variety will be back from his Darwin sojourn. While Oliver and Petracca will be missed along with Viney, expect the new look midfield to be competitive. Jack Steele will always be, but with Langford, Windsor and Lindsay also running through there expect some headaches for opposition coaches. How will Ross handle them? Their opening party was pooped on by the Pies, can they get redemption back at the scene? They competed well last week but as has been their lament for a while – inefficiency in the front third. Fortunately it is also their opposition’s weakness. The Dees got beaten by the Saints last year by not looking after Nasiah – doubt he will get much freedom but he will be keen to show that he can beat the tag. Could be some interesting team tactics to help also. The ruck contest between Max and his nominated heir apparent will be important. Just think St Kilda will have had the chance to adjust their game after last week to have the advantage, while Melbourne is quite the unknown entity.
Golden (99.9%) vs Western (0.01%)
If the Dees are unknown, West Coast are barely defined. Out of mind, out of sight here in the east, not sure there has been much to know. They visit the flag favourites from the Gold Coast, it might be ugly.
Track Time
Got a couple home on a tough day at headquarters last week. The presentation of the track might not have been quite as bad as the Boxing Day pitch at the G but we were dished up with an on pace bias and clear better going on the inside lanes. Sometimes it is beyond the control of the track manager but very disappointing for the major day of the Autumn Carnival. We roll on though to Caulfield for the VOBIS Raceday with a key lead-up race for the Australian Cup and another Group 1 race in Sydney. The rail out 9 metres at Caulfield will have us on a watch for any leader bias again.
Caulfield
Handy race to open proceedings and hard to go away from the favourite Xtra Rush (R1, #7). Has a great winning record while his main danger Foujita San (R1, #1) last saluted almost two years ago. Ameena (R2, #3) has also gone for a while without a win, but does tend to keep better company than this and is 2 from 4 fresh. It’s a step up but Al Duca (R3, #5) is good fresh, good over the journey and good at the track against a field that has a few munchers. Would prefer an each way ticket but with only 7 starters there is no third dividend.
Yum (R4, #8) appears at a tasty price for being a 2nd up winner and a winner over this trip, respect for Bossy Benita (R4, #1) in great form but carrying a hefty imposte. Not much data to follow in the next but note that Johnny Allen is sticking with High on the Hill (R5, #6) and the lone C Maher runner in the field. Country finals are always difficult with form hard to line up, Brung King (R6, #3) is a consistent performer and better each way value than the favourite Sir Atlas (R6, #2) who is a strong chance but unreliable.
The Quaddie kicks off with The Showdown where McGaw announced himself last year. Is there another talented baby to do the same this year. It’s a bit of a bridge to cross picking a first starters but like the jump out of Phillip Island (R6, #8). The Peter Young is a key lead up race for the Australian Cup Buckaroo (R7, #2) never made it to the ASM last week and looks well suited here in a very good race. Top four selections are (2, 1, 5, 3). If Salty Pearl (R9, #12) can back up from the Kewney well she can win this. Any sign of leader bias and Jigsaw (R10, #1) will be hard to catch, has been in excellent form of late but paying for it with weight. If they are running on then Ndola (R10, #4) has a good weight drop and good record here.
Quaddie
Leg 1 – 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 10, 11
Leg 2 – 1, 2, 3, 5
Leg 3 – 1, 3, 7, 12
Leg 4 – 1, 4
224 Combinations, a $30 investment will return 13.4% of the dividend
Rosehill
Race 8 – Coolmore Classic (G1, 1500m, Fillies and Mares HCP)
Ole Dancer (6) and Savvy Hallie (7) are very good fillies and have been weighted as such, expect they will be competitive but going with the more seasoned mare with the champ on board. JMac rides Lazzura (1), he steered six winners last week and expect this will be another group one. The one at longer odds and down in the weights is Cilacap (14), her best is good enough. Also respect for Cinsault (8) in a terrific vein of form.
Selections – 1-7-6-14
Go Blues, Go Buckaroo
Cheers, Sal
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