Greetings All,
Well the trade period is finally over with the final couple of hours proving that that this whole fiasco can be run and done in three days and let all those journos get some time off! A fiasco is an appropriate description of the process, any objective to level the playing field for the lesser clubs has been blown away by the tinkering. Free agency began the destruction and now Salary Dumping has exacerbated the problem. GWS have grabbed the top pick through the process – how long before he will defect and return home?
We are now off and racing after a spectacular Guineas Day with the Might and Power delivering one of the great races of all time. Anamoe overcame a few challenges to salute and set up a mouth watering Cox Plate next week, first we need to get the Caulfield Cup run and done while Sydney delivers the Everest.
Caulfield
With the deluge hitting Caulfield during the Wednesday program and into Thursday we can expect the track to be pretty tough to negotiate, importantly expect them to try and get out to the middle or outside lanes to make ground. If the rain doesn’t stop then finding a winner will be even tougher despite knocking the dry trackers out.
The Fillies open proceedings where Quang Tri (R1, #1) gets the weight penalty for a very strong winter – reckon it is well deserved and will be very hard to beat. Cap De Joie (R2, #11) is a progressive type that looks well placed in the second but not sure $2.10 represents fair value, reckon the Kiwi Saint Bathans (R2, #6) might be a fair investment and 2 from 2 on the heavy.
Race 3 – Norman Robinson Stakes (G3, 2000m, 3yo SW)
The sponsors might have got hold of this race but it will always be The Norm to me. We have seen Mr Maestro (1) put his stamp on the Derby and this should be a good lead into the classic, has to get around the Heath being the key issue. Who can step up and challenge here? Muramasa (5) finished at the back of the field in the Stutt but did close well, reckon there is some talent there and has not run against the favourite. Red Sun Sensation (2) did chase the favourite home last start and Dream Hour (4) has won his last two after the unkindest cut of all.
Selections – 1-5-2-4
Race 3 – Ethereal Stakes (G3, 2000m, Fillies SWP)
Nothing would surprise here as the Oaks bound fillies are still sorting themselves out. The Blue Army held the maiden Moko (1) back from the 1000 Guineas for this this and they are getting there placements spot on lately. Like the hopes of both Busuttin-Young charges in Whakamama (8) and Foxy Cleopatra (7) more power to them! While Pavitra (3) only had the top of the class ahead of her in the Flight Stakes.
Selections – 1-8-3-7
Ominously Eponymous (R5, #8) was scratched on Wednesday for this, Waller polish and B Prebble to pilot – watch on the lightly raced Maher-Eustace runner Garza Blanca (R5, #15). The Alinghi is tough to sort out, Najmaty (R6, #4) has a great record over the trip and at this track – just got to trust that she can handle the going. Ashford Street (R7, #) gets down in the weights in the sprint and can handle heavy going. A handy field for the Tristarc, we get to find out if Chain of Lightning (R8, #9) had a mulligan last start, trusting Moody-Nolen and putting it down to a mulligan.
Race 9 – The Caulfield Cup (G1, 2400m, HCP)
The barrier only added to the haze around this race with many of top contenders drawing wide gates – usually that would be an issue but by race 28 of the week on a rain affected surface it could be a benefit. With no internationals running this year’s renewal is not the greatest but nevertheless an intriguing contest. Drawing the carpark dulls the confidence a bit but the best monickered horse in Australia has been aimed at this race and comes off an encouraging run in the Might and Power last week. I speak of Benaud (10) by Reliable Man out Baggy Green. If the outside can’t win then leaving it to the inside with another product of Reliable Man in Inspirational Girl (12) D O’Brien knows how to win the big races. They both need to beat the favourite Smoking Romans (17) no matter what is said about the speed of the Turnbull he was up there to win and none could pass. Is weighted to win and if the speed is farcical again will be well placed to strike again. GSOB had a day out last week and could continue the party with Alegron (9) who comes off a last start victory. Vow and Declare (7) has been progressing nicely heading towards the Melbourne Cup – needs to finish top eight here to get there and running well enough to do so. The mares Duais (2) and Montefilia (4) at their best have the class and capability to win this but have not shown their best this campaign and Knight’s Order (3) will be tough to get past leading the field up.
Selections – 10-12-17-9-7-4-3-2
We close the card trusting Old Flame (R10, #15), backed off the map last week and failed but for that money there has to be some talent there.
Randwick
Race 7 – The Everest (1200m, WFA)
It will again be run on a bog which makes Nature Strip (1) the obvious selection – the outside barrier probably improves his chances. Have been looking for what could beat him, unless something goes amiss he has all the usual suspects covered. This leaves the three year olds, the mare and the foreigner as the unknowns. Shades of Rose (10) has some appeal, will cope with the surface and drawn OK, don’t think she has the weight advantage to beat the champ. Is it Yes, Yes, Yes for the colts? Jacquinot (11) has drawn the inside which does not suit his racing style of storming down the outside, can he make up that much ground in this class? On the other hand Giga Kick (12) will be handy to the speed and is undefeated, this is a big test for your first crack at 1200m. It may not have been a great field that Joyful Fortune (9) obliterated down the Flemington straight, but it was in good time and on a heavy track. None of those four might even run a place but they have not been beaten by the favourite – yet!
Selections – 1-12-9-10-11
Quaddie Time
Caulfield Cup day is tough enough let alone a heavy track – but we go again! And we’ll spend a bit as it is Cup Day.
Quaddie
Leg 1 – 2, 7, 8, 9, 11
Leg 2 – 1, 8, 9, 13, 15
Leg 3 – 7, 9, 10, 12, 17
Leg 4 – 13, 15, 16
375 Combinations, $50 Investment returns 13.33% of the dividend.
Go Richie,
Cheers, Sal
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