Greetings All,
So perhaps this piece was not the whole part of it but great to see the announcement of substitutions being made on the scoreboard at the MCG, not sure if the practice has pervaded yet to other venues.
However, if there is to be any influence please let it be around the interpretations (or lack thereof) for Holding the Ball/Man. Apparently on the agenda for the honchos is density around the ball – simple solution pay free kicks when they are there. Players are getting way too long to hold the ball when tackled and can then dispose of it by any means they like or just hold it in and get yet another stoppage for more players to gather around. Then make sure tackles are legal, while there is the reaction to Ginnivan and Selwood, sure the benefit of doubt should go to the player who went and got the footy. To stop congestion then make the ball move, it moves more from free kicks than another ball up.
Let’s see if changes are made after a few mightier voices than mine let their thoughts be known, none should be louder than Leigh Matthews.
Going Double Dutch (45%) vs Using Leverage (55%)
The Blues bring back the younger Hollands plus a couple of other key players in McGovern and Martin, while the Dees get back Jake Bowey of an injury received putting himself on the line – well deserved immediate return. The Blues have lapsed into the mid-2023 malaise unable or unwilling to move the ball out of defence, making it difficult to score and allowing the opposition repeat entries. Notably they have lost two games with goals from stoppage in last minute, after winning a number of close games early things are not quite working now. Doubt it is all down to personnel. Meanwhile the Demons are flying with Max Gawn ruling the skies and contributing around the ground. The key though is defence conceding less than 10 goals per game in the last four including last week’s effort against Geelong. Gawn, the D-fence and inability to move the ball appears as too many challenges for the Blues to overcome, however there is Weitering, Hollands, Docherty, Acres……but alas no Docherty.
The Last Domino (90%) vs Not so Rozee (10%)
Geelong gets back home to host Port Adelaide in a Friday night clash. The Cats, despite their first loss last round, are strong at home and will be looking to bounce back. Port Adelaide needs a win to stay in the top eight after a disappointing showing, they will need to do it without Rozee but should get Allir back to stiffen the defence. Geelong boasts a dominant home record against Port Adelaide 14-2 and last defeat in 2007. Jeremy rarely puts in two bad ones so expect the Cats to prevail.
Just Joshin’ (34%) vs The New Leader (66%)
The Friday night encore from Perth promises to be a beauty, with Freo hosting the current pacesetting Swans. The Dockers have disposed of a couple of teams efficiently, this is the big test with a big advantage at home. The improvement in Josh Treacy has been critical to improving their potency up forward and will challenge the Swans defence. Their midfield battle will decide this game with two of the strongest setups going head to head. Do they risk Darcy or fight fire with fire and play Jackson on Grundy where they are both excellent on the follow up work? The Dockers have pretty much performed to expectation in their games thus far, this is the chance to stamp their credentials and just think they might.
Dog Catchers (29%) vs Roo Cullers (71%)
The Hawks and Saints inflicted losses on the Dogs and Roos respectively, who will inflict the pain this week? Launceston has been a happy hunting ground for them even in the last couple of lean years, the Saints may have tossed away their entrée into Tassie but they do possess a 6-6 record at the venue. St Kilda should get Liam Henry back to add pace to the team and expect them to make scoring too difficult for the Hawks to get a winning total.
X Out (30%) vs Browned Off (70%)
The Bombers and Giants meet in the twilight zone, both have lost personnel with Xavier Duursma to spend a couple of weeks out with injury while Callum Brown’s weeks out are for suspension. There also lies a question mark over the fitness of Tom Green which could be a key factor in how this match pans out. GWS will be keen to bounce back after going down to their cross-town rivals, they have looked as good as any team thus far. Essendon are undefeated in the last four after their humiliation to Port Adelaide. Interestingly the margin in the last three has been 6 points or less. The Bombers won’t make it easy but expecting a strong response from the Giants and then to just get over the line here.
Coming Up Short (14%) vs Oh Mr Darcy (86%)
Jayden Short’s impressive return was not enough to help the Tigers against Freo, this week they host the beleaguered Bulldogs who fluffed their lines against the Hawks. Will be interesting to see how the three-headed monster in Darcy – Ugle-Hagan – Naughton can fare against the Tiger defence which has four multi-premiership players but has been conceding some big scores. It’s at the other end where the Tigers are really battling especially without Tom Lynch. Reckon the Dogs respond and win this week despite without their heart and soul in Tom Liberatore. Hoping everything is OK for him whether he plays footy again or not.
Northern Coast (99%) vs Tucker Time (1%)
Gold Coast kick off their Darwin sojourn against Darcy Tucker’s North and expect them to dine out on them.
In the Nick of Time (98%) vs Watered Down (2%)
What a sublime goal from Nick to clinch the game for the Pies, while lamenting the Blues lapse it does not take a big error for him to take his toll. His Pies host West Coast who are going OK but lose their best forward in Waterman and probably Yeo. The Pies should get the Mother’s Day gift.
SA Champs (64%) vs Knee Jerk (36%)
The Crows and Lions have not had the seasons they expected thus far and get to test each other out this week. The Crows are getting back on track with a strong win the showdown while Brisbane got back on track against the Suns but at the cost of two more players with season ending knee injuries. They have had a great run with injuries in recent years however are really having their depth tested. Overall Fagan will learn a lot more about his list but it will probably be at the cost of this game.
Track Time
Back to Caulfield this week and the finale of the Adelaide Carnival. Very much an off season meeting so we will just go with the quaddie. We need a few in the opening leg in a very open race, Up to Mischief (R7, #8) comes in undefeated from regional NSW. The next is not much easier with plenty of interest in Gentlemen Roy (R8, #1) who has a good fresh record. We get to skinny up an bit with Frigid (R9, #6) but then it gets a bit tougher in the last but happy to follow End Assembly (R10, #14) who was well supported last start but did not run to expectation.
Leg 1 – 1, 2, 6, 8, 11
Leg 2 – 1, 2, 8, 11
Leg 3 – 6, 8, 9
Leg 4 – 14, 15, 16
180 Combinations a $30 investment will return 16.67% of the dividend.
Morphettville Race 8 – The Goodwood (G1, 1200m, SWP)
As well as Amelia’s Jewel (1) gets in under the conditions, the three year olds look well placed here also. Skybird (16) has a group one already and can win this if the speed is on. Oscar’s Fortune (15) has been close to the favourite in Perth and Pike stays on board. Johnny Rocker (9) must be considered after getting so close to Imperatriz.
Selections – 16-1-15-9
Friar Time
Close games for the men and women with a draw against the Animals while the women went down to Old Trinity by 3 points in a low scoring encounter. The Reserves continued their winning form and Threes got a win on the board over Hawthorn. This week the men host South Melbourne Districts at Friar Park in critical games for both teams. The women take on Mazenod in the early game at Friars while we await the Thirds’ opponent.
Go Blues, Go Friars
Cheers, Sal
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