Greetings All,
While the result did not please, it was incredible to watch the roamings of Jeremy Cameron, he almost won the same match last season and it could be argued he was the key difference last week. He is an almost impossible match up, defenders who can go with him in the air won’t have the aerobic capacity to run with him and those that can go with him probably can’t match him in the air. Of all the defenders that played last week Connor Idun might have the legs and leap to go with him but not sure if there is anyone else. So what do the coaches do to combat this free-wheeling colossus? If matching up is difficult perhaps they could fight fire with fire. Most clubs have a Jeremy type – maybe not quite as good but an athletic tall forward who can run up and own the ground and make life difficult for their defender used to staying at home playing behind the ball. The Blues have an obvious one in Charlie Curnow but there are plenty more in the league, the Ben King, Joel Amartey, Jamara Ugle-Hagan, Marshall or Georgiades, Kyle Langford just to name a few.
How will the Demons stop him this week?
Open the Curtin (33%) vs Sweet Dreams (67%)
The Showdown is a big game for a debutante, so the Crows have high hopes for Daniel Curtin in this one. It is as they say farewell to one of their greats in Rory Sloane, what a player he has been, fearless and fair. For all the bravery he showed on the field his decision to retire was one of the bravest. As much as he wanted to play the risk to his long term health was just too great, he will get a fitting send off from the Charddy Sippers in the stands. They take on the Power who have their own injury concerns and a bit of risk in naming Connor Rozee who came off with hamstring ‘awareness’ last week. Suspect he may not take the field. The Crows have won the last two showdowns handsomely and might just do it again here, while they don’t have the form, they did flex their muscles against the Roos last week and the Showdown rarely goes to script.
Pitt Bull (69%) vs Goey, Goey Gone (31%)
The Blues midfield has swung the clearances numbers their way over the last three weeks, much to do with the efforts of Marc Pittonet who has not only won tap but clearances as well. But they have lost two games in that time and conceded at least 15 goals in each game. While there are personnel challenges there are significant issues with the speed they are allowing the opposition to transition at. The Pies have plenty of that transition speed so expect that to be a focus from the Blues this week. The Pies are still not firing on all cylinders but the spurts they have shown of their best is a reminder of what they are capable of. They get to show that this week without de Goey and Mitchell, that should benefit the Blues in the middle particularly if they regain Cerra. Reckon the Blues will have the firepower to win this provided they can be more creative with their forward entries. Bearing in mind the two extra days off the Pies had might also make a difference.
Smug (55%) vs Chirpy (45%)
This contest did not need for more spice but we got it anyway with Sam Taylor describing their crosstown rivals as smug. He should return to the line up along with Coniglio while Sydney are likely to have Parker and Rampe available. Both teams had easy victories last week, this will be different with the Swans wanting to play a tough inside game while the Giants will be trying to ride the tsunami wave. Brodie Grundy provides a significant advantage to the Swans in that respect and can control how the ball will be released from stoppages, Briggs had a tough time against a similar opponent in Pittonet a couple of weeks ago. They will need to get a more even effort from all their forwards up against the Giants defence back to full strength. Think the SCG tips this one to the smug ones.
Still Battling (97%) vs Is the Drury Out? (3%)
The Saints have been battling but get their chance to get on the board up against the Roos who are judging where Clarko is with this rebuild.
Top Billings (47%) vs Who’s Next? (53%)
The Demons are the next to try and bring the Cats down, they get some help with Patrick Dangerfield out but there is the slight issue of Jeremy. The Demons defence is as good as anyone but who goes with him. Do they try with May and give Hawkins to McDonald. While Hawkins might not be hitting the scoreboard he certainly consumes a good defender. While Danger might be out they do get Tom Stewart back to make life tough for the Demons forwards. They should get enough supply if Max can dominate the ruck against Stanley and the likes of Viney, Petracca and Oliver can win the clearance fight. Just think the Cats defence is working too well and Jeremy too hard to match so sticking with the Cats.
Yippy Yeo (26%) vs All Wright (74%)
The return of a healthy Elliot Yeo has been a part of the Eagles improvement and this week he plays game 200. That and the return of Harley Reid to the team gives them a great chance against the Bombers. The Bombers though should have an edge in the rucks with Draper and Goldstein to be able to give the likes of Merrett, Durham and Parish first use of the ball.
Hop Off (25%) vs Signs of Fyffe (75%)
The Tigers have had a long break but also need one with injuries after losing Jacob Hopper with another injury. They get to host Freo who got back on track over the Dogs last week with Nat Fyffe winding back the clock. They will see this as a great opportunity to play on the MCG and should be too strong for the Cubs.
Gone West (91%) vs Mabior Next Week (9%)
Rhylee West and Mabior Chol miss this clash between their respective clubs with suspensions, the Dogs get a handy one back in Libba however for the Mitch Lewis remains sidelined. The Hawks just lacked intensity last week after having plenty against North, has Sam gone back to the mouthguards this week. The Dogs had the tough road trip out west. They also get Ugle-Hagan back and should have too much class for Hawthorn in the Loungeroom.
Welcome to the Jungle (77%) vs The Noisy Neighbours (23%)
The Queensland Derby has never really had much significance apart from bragging rights, this edition has real gravitas. The Lions simply must win to stay in touch with the rest of the competition. It is also a test for Chris Fagan and the leadership to get the kind of response after a couple of ordinary weeks. Perhaps they might request to borrow the Curnow property. The Suns take in a better record to the game for the first time in a long time if ever at all, a win would put them amongst the leading teams in the competition and a three game gap over the opponents. This will all be about attitude and expect Brisbane to bring a hefty amount and get back on the winners list, the ramifications of not could be ugly.
Track Time
A tough day all round last week at Caulfield where we return this week and try and right the wrongs, the main events are in Adelaide again with the SA Derby as the highlight. With the babies opening the day and some well credentialled debutantes it’s probably a watch and learn. Girl (R2, #4) looks well in with the 3kg claim as an each way proposition with an odds on favourite in the race. A tough affair in the next but happy to be with Cadmus (R3, #1) who comes here 2nd up. Regal Might (R4, #11) is new on the scene winning his only start at Kyneton, the Price/Kent yard is placing them well at the moment. Thinking of Philosopher (R5, #6) all wins have been over the 1000m and one of them here. Being a backmarker makes Wolfy (R6, #3) inconsistent but he gets the right distance here and J Mott rode him to win here 3 starts back.
Terrific contest over the mile to open the quaddie and with El Soleado (R7, #5) who just keeps winning. We’ll need a few in the next with Aztec State (R8, #2) the top pick. Berkeley Square (R9, #1) finally got one on the board last week, can he back it up? Think Shaiyar (R9, #7) is well weighted to be a threat. Chorlton Lane (R10, #2) got the quaddie home at Bendigo and reckon he can do it again here – as long as we get the first three of course.
Quaddie
Leg 1 – 2, 3, 5
Leg 2 – 1, 2, 3, 7, 9, 14
Leg 3 – 1, 6, 7, 8
Leg 4 – 2, 12
144 Combinations a $30 investment will return 20.83% of the dividend.
Morphettville
Race 8 – South Australian Derby (G1, 2500m, 3YO SW)
A good line up for the derby with a few colliding form lines. The NZ raider Antrim Coast (1) has a placing in the home derby and since has run well in Melbourne this looks a progression. Bold Soul (4) won the lead up race last week so should be cherry ripe for this. The form does not read well for Sunsets (2) but has had terrible luck with wide draws, pulled a decent marble here and 3rd in the VRC Derby is good form for this. Of the fillies think Ahuriri (16) could run really well after taking on the boys in the St Leger and giving them a sound beating.
Selections – 1-4-2-16
Friar Time
The Friars fell behind the ledger going down at home to Elsternwick in the Seniors while the Girls suffered their first defeat at the hands of the strong Glen Eira outfit. The Reserves recorded a big win while the Threes played well but were not quite up to Masala’s first XVIII. This week the Friars take on the Animals at Bennetswood in the mens, while the women host Old Trinity in the early time slot. The Thirds competition has been through a regrading process and we await as to who they will play this week.
Go Blues, Go Friars,
Cheers, Sal
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