Round 7 Preview – Victoria, a state of disarray!

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Greetings All,

 

The plight of Victorian Clubs is on the agenda this week – in particular the big ones.  Carlton, Essendon, Collingwood, Richmond and Hawthorn all suffering defeats.  The Hawks is probably an anomaly, being down on defenders and key leaders although they were expected to deal with the Giants.  But for the others do we need to look closely at their prospects in both the short and long term.

The Blues are more than well documented – they are an MBA paper on how not to run an organisation.  I might not be enamoured with Mick Malthouse – but the core issues lie above him and require expunging.  Far too many “Liniment Sniffers” involved who don’t add any value to the organisation apart from dollars – yes Geoffrey I am talking about you, but you have a few mates!  The Board and Executive needs to be chosen for the skills they bring to the table to use and not treat the club like a plaything.

Jimmy lamented the lack of skills for the Bombers – a little harsh perhaps against the hottest team in the competition at the moment.  They have a couple of elder statesmen who require replacement, but have been able to introduce some pretty handy young ‘uns.  But how do they jump from the pack to be a contender?  Big Joe helps, but they will need to get some gold from the draft and will win too many matches to get the very top picks.  The WADA appeal might just have some effect.

The Pies seem to have the young talent – but they don’t have the required influence in big games.  They have also been looking for a replacement for Leroy Brown since his retirement, Chris Dawes looked OK but didn’t want to ruck and Jesse White does not look quite up to it against the very best.  Ben Reid’s inability to get on the park doesn’t help.  Pendlebury has years to play and is pretty resilient, but Dane Swan is close to the end although still effective.  Grundy aside they probably need more young talent over 195cm.

The Tigers are an excitable bunch approaching each season with the glass half full, but they have reached an interesting point in time and as someone has suggested might be further away from a flag than the Blues.  The logic being that the group they have has reached is nadir but the club has not accepted it yet.  (I am not 100% that the Blues have either)  Can the Tigers reach the pinnacle with the current playing list?  I severely doubt it.  An above average midfield, but shaky and inconsistent at either end of the ground.  On their day they can match it with the best but not week in week out.  Despite their swagger they are not top four material and even if they were could not win the three finals required for a flag.

So what of the rest – Geelong appear to be in the middle of the pack now.  Was it a hiccup for the Dogs?  I reckon they will have few inconsistent games – will be better in games they are not expected to win.  Saints are giving their fans hope for the future and a journey to enjoy.  North are on the edge, but I don’t think they are genuine top four material.  Then there is Melbourne, Roos has them competing better but there is a long road ahead.

Lots of other topics with the draft, the fixture and WADA but time is short and there are games to preview.

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WADA, WADA, WADA ($2.55) vs Kick in the Shinbone ($1.55)

The irony was oozing as Jimmy was indignant about WADA’s decision to appeal.  That they have puts this group back under the spotlight, but they have performed pretty well while in that position.  Meanwhile Angry Brad has an extra item on his agenda after his tete-a-tete last weekend.  Essendon have been disappointing for the last three weeks, but do have the personnel to be able to beat the Roos.  However North want to be in the big time and to that they need to be beating Essendon.  On current form they deserve favouritism but at their best these two are evenly matched.  Anything over $2.50 is fair value on the Bombers and if you’re like me and need to start picking outside the square they might be the way to go.  However as good as they are while against the world, I think the WADA decision has surprised them and been quite disruptive so I will be selecting North.

 

The Life of Reilly ($1.25) vs Billings Method ($4.80)

The Crows lose one of their list with the retirement of Brent Reilly after the horrific head injury suffered in the pre-season, not a household name in Melbourne but a very good player for his club over many years.  Well played!  I could write chapter and verse on why Carlton did the right thing in not matching the offer for Eddie Betts, but the last couple of weeks can make it tough to swallow.  He is deadly around goals and does sweat on poor opposition, generally he fails against the best but his effort against Port was outstanding.  Meanwhile Jack Billings and his Saints were methodical in chasing down that Bulldog lead to come up with a club-building victory.  This week against Eddie’s Crows it will be another tough test.  With Saint Nick playing further up the ground more planning will be required by Phil but I suspect at home the Crows will be too strong.

 

Cartoon Corner ($1.14) vs Dawes Ajar ($7.60)

OK so let’s have a decree no cartoons on footy jumpers any more – that abomination worn by Hawthorn last week was the last straw.  The other issue being that there was no clash anyway, I am all for clash strips but only when required.  With a few leaders missing Chris Dawes believes there is a slight opening for the Dees in this one.  He is mistaken and I reckon Dawes might slammed by 5:00pm on Saturday.

 

They don’t know Jaksch ($2.72) vs Kingslayers ($1.56)

Neither do they know Jones, Tutt, Everett, Boekhorst, …. But Kristian Jaksch takes the cake – consuming a number seven draft pick after playing only one good game for the Giants.  And that was against Carlton!  Just does not display the intensity required for AFL – but he has plenty of mates who have copped the sword but not him.  Meanwhile the Giants slayed the premiers and look formidable opposition to anyone.  Whilst I expect the Blues to fightback after last week’s capitulation, I have learnt that expectations are nothing.  The gap in talent in these two teams is a chasm and the Giants will have too much scoring power.

 

The Big Donut ($1.30) vs Dead Cat Bounce? ($4.20)

The Cats have done all possible to redeem themselves in the last two weeks, this week will determine if they can still match it with the best.  Buddy joked about the donut from last week, I doubt he really saw the funny side and will be keen to atone.  Haven’t done the stats but it would be a while since he went goalless two games in a row.  The Swans smashed Geelong at home last year, the venue is different at the Olympic Stadium but I doubt the result will be different although maybe not quite the blowout.

 

Not so FTBB ($1.13) vs Suns Burnt ($7.60)

West Coast may have turned the corner, beating Port in Adelaide is a fantastic win.  A win this week will not shed any light on whether they have thrown the FTBB label as they should easily account for the Suns who are struggling with their injury list.

 

Hiccups ($4.10) vs I don’t like Mundy ($1.31)

I’ll tell you why because he doesn’t play for my team – big, quick, brave, skilful.  Would be the best midfielder in almost every other team, at Freo he arguably just rates as number two as they have the unfair advantage in Nat Fyfe.  Not ignoring Barlow or Neale either.  No wonder Freo are so strong.  In Bontempelli the Dogs have one who will be elite, but not quite yet.  They had a hiccup against the Saints last week, I suspect this week might be a full on convulsion.

 

Dejavu (2.28) vs Wobbled? ($1.76)

The season is looking similar to 2014 for the Tigers with a slow start, they will hope improvement comes a bit earlier.  Collingwood will provide formidable testing material and will be keen to atone for the loss last week.  At the beginning of the season we would have thought these two teams would be evenly matched, not much has changed my opinion, which means really that the game will come down to attitude and who wants the contested ball more.  With that I am selecting the Pies whose midfield just has that greater consistency, nevertheless Tiger fans should be excited to see anything over $2.20.

 

Paddle Pops ($5.00) vs Fire in the Belly ($1.24)

Kane Cornes has a couple more left in him before he joins the Fireys – this he last road trip and facing the Lions.  They did not beat much last week, but note should be taken of how that game changed as the Lions started to win contested ball.  It is something they have been lacking, unfortunately they come up against Port who will be addressing that side of their game also after a poor showing last week.  Port should be too balanced and too good.

 

Melbourne Victory ($2.32) vs Sydney FC ($3.65) – Draw ($3.30)

Undoubtedly Victory have been the best and most consistent side for the season, but this comes down to a single game.  Sydney FC have been excellent and the business end of the season and more importantly have an outstanding record away from home.  They have met three times during the season and split the points each time – a scoreless draw the first time but then 3-3 draws in both other encounters.  Victory were clinical last week and should be able to win if they can reproduce that attacking precision.  However these two teams are very evenly matched which makes Sydney a better proposition at $3.50 or better for investors.

 

Friar Time

No matter what the results were in the footy the Friars biggest loss was on Friday Night with the passing of an icon in Fr Noel Kierce.  He embodied everything about the institution that is Whitefriars and a friend to so many.  But there were still games played with the Seniors being pipped by St Mary’s after holding sway most of the day, the Reserves fought hard but were no match.  The Under 19s missing a couple of their key players to the seniors did well to get over Old Ivanhoe.  This week the Seniors head to Leeds St in Doncaster to face the Yarra Valley Bushrangers is a critical game for both clubs.  The younger Friars host Caulfield Grammarians.

 

RIP Noel,

Go Friars, Go Blues,

Cheers, Sal

 

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