Round 4 – Sal’s Preview: Why don’t my people talk to your people?


Greetings All,

What a weekend for Melbourne this is with the return of F1 to Albert Park!  It might not be everyone’s favourite but ticket sales are strong and organisers expect over 100,000 on both Saturday and Sunday.  Which begs the question as to why the AFL have scheduled matches in Melbourne directly at key times for the Grand Prix.  The main qualifying on Saturday collides with the Pies-Eagles in the Loungeroom while on Sunday games are scheduled at both the MCG and the Loungeroom.  Surely Melbourne could have been footy free during both days and have marquee games schedule for Friday and Saturday nights.  Saturday night Tigers-Dogs gets a tick but why play in Geelong on Friday Night.  They have had a couple of years to think about this and get some synergies.

COVID though did conspire to have the AFLW Grand Final this weekend, tough for the Dees in Adelaide but reckon Melbourne might hold both titles after this weekend.

Killing Kenny? ($3.35) vs A Bit of Leverage ($1.41)

Ken Hinkley is a realist and knows the territory with his team winless after three games.  They pushed Brisbane and were beaten after the bell last week, they have some serious personnel challenges to go with it.  They correct one of those personnel issues this week with the return of Tom Clurey but still are without the key pillars at either end in Allir and Dixon.  The Demons are on the flip side and do get one of their pillars back with Jake Lever returning.  They have stuck with Sam Weideman over Ben Brown in after a terrific effort last week and proving that possession might be 9/10 of the law.  Expecting Port to be a feisty opponent but it’s just that Melbourne pack too many weapons and should prevail.

Close but No Ceglar ($1.91) vs O No ($2.06)

The Lions under Chris Fagan have ticked off plenty of boxes, one remaining is winning at Kardinia Park.  Their last victory there being in 2003, intriguingly prior to that they were undefeated at the venue as the Brisbane Lions.  They need to do it this week with Darcy probably needing to hold the Fort with the suspension of Oscar McInerney.  The Cats have long had rucking woes and were looking to having Jon Ceglar assist only for him to sustain another injury last week.  One quarter gave them a reprieve, has it lit the fuse for the Cats.  The Lions pace could be an issue for the Cats, but the Big O is a big out.  Geelong at Geelong works most of the time and suspect it will this week.

Hickey, Hickey, Shaken ($1.11) vs Noble Rot ($9.20)

Swans will need someone to step up in Tom Hickey’s place and the ruck is one area where North might be competitive.  If they are not then we might see another result like last week.

Please Sir ($1.39) vs Another RAT ($3.05)

The Pies asked and now they have six years of Darcy Moore, a real pillar that they can build their defence around and future captain.  The offspring are going OK with the Daicos boys also becoming integral parts of the team.  They take on West Coast whose decimation to COVID remains, should result in a Collingwood win.

Bit the Dust ($2.78) vs Duck Shooters ($1.55)

Is it no Dusty no Tigers?  The week prior against the Giants said no.  Reckon a bigger issue is other missing personnel, Dylan Grimes and Nick Vlastuin are the cornerstones of the defence.  They will get Dion Prestia back which will add much needed bite in the middle and they will need against the Bulldogs.  They planned meticulously and took down the Swans, they should have the edge in the middle over the Tigers.  It is at either end where they are challenged.  Balta has the athleticism to go with Naughton so should be a good match up.  Weightman is more difficult, small and quick but capable in the air – one of the cornerstones would be ideal but they won’t be there.  At the other end Jack will come back and Lynch is always a handful.  Expect a response from the Tigers similar to against GWS, just think the Dogs will be primed for it and have too much depth  through the middle.

Kings of the West ($1.88) vs Green with Envy ($2.10)

Freo ruled in the west and get to host the Giants who planned well and got hold of the Suns last week.  They are missing Toby but the Green of the Tom variety is adding strength to the midfield along with a handy eye for goal. Not sure what Freo beat last week but they should get Mundy and Darcy back, so going with them on their home deck.

The Wright Stuff ($1.52) vs Bell Beaters ($2.84)

Two Metre Peter and the Bombers took it up to the premiers for a while, great work by McGrath on Petracca but the Dees had too many to cover.  Not sure the Crows present the same challenge, still can’t work out how they won.  If Essendon can reproduce the effort of last week that should be good enough to overcome Adelaide.

What was the Point ($2.16) vs The Silver Hammer ($1.83)

Maxwell King banged four nails into the Tiger coffin last week after having little influence before ¾ time.  The improved supply also made a difference.  They take on Hawthorn who were brilliant in defeat last week.  They were outgunned early but their brains trust went to work to find a way to nullify the Blues strengths.  The Hawks might not have all the weapons on the ground, but they deliver to the message of a pretty astute coaching group.  Underate the weapons they do have at your peril especially the run of Jiath and the creativity of Sicily and Day off half back.  Reckon St Kilda should get first use through the dominance of Ryder and Marshall to give them the edge in a close one.

Touk Him On ($2.52) vs False Dawn? ($1.63)

The Giants shut down Touk Miller and got the result, suspect that the Suns will be prepared to provide him much stronger support this week.  They host Carlton who are in heady territory at 3-0.  On closer inspection though they have only won 5 of 12 quarters and their percentage ranks eighth.  If they are going to be successful they must be more ruthless rather than giving the Dogs and Hawks a sniff in a games that should have been wrapped up.  Playing at the Mansion will be a challenge but reckon the Blues have more depth through the middle to win this one.

Track Time

We got the program done last week at Randwick and the weather gods are threatening again.  The one thing we can bank on is a heavy track.


Race 6 – Australian Oaks (G1, 2400m, Fillies SW)

Ratings put Hinged (1) on top here and certainly think she will be hard to beat, however thinking one might in Pink Ivory (9).  Targeted at this race gets JMac and has a win on a heavy track.  The record of Gypsy Goddess (2) must be respected and just respecting both trainers of Biscayne Bay (3) and El Patroness (6).  They are very good at targeting races.  Plenty of other handy ones going around but you can’t have ‘em all.

Selections – 9-1-2-3

Race 7 – The Sydney Cup (G1, 3200m, HCP)

Not quite field befitting Group One, but handy prizemoney for the second level of stayers.  And they will have to stay.  Jamie Kah had the choice and went with Crystal Pegasus (5), no help from the barrier but who knows if that will be an issue on this surface.  Happy to go with her judgement over her other choice in Daqiansweet Junior (2) coming of a win in the Adelaide Cup, certainly a question mark on capability on the wet.  2nd to Duais at WFA is good form so have to rate Stockman (4) and No Compromise (8) comes off a win in one of the main lead up races.

Selections – 5-2-4-8

Race 8 – Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA)

Lizzie is the reason we have second raters in the Cup, all the good ones are running here.  Makes selections pretty tough, however I am thinking we might have a new queen in Duais (7) she has been brilliant with her two recent wins.  Or perhaps a new king, Anamoe (9) was unlucky in the Cox Plate and dominant in the Rosehill Guineas.  Not discounting the current queen, Verry Elleegant (6) went under last start but this is her Grand Final or even Grand Finale.  Still have to consider plenty but putting I’m Thunderstruck (3) in the numbers, unknown at the journey but has a huge finish.

Selections – 7-9-6-3

Race 9 – Queen of the Turf Stakes (G1, 1600m, F&M WFA)

Probably a misnomer for this after the previous!  Just going to trust winning form and go with Yonce (14), her toughest test but she keeps on stepping up.  The main challengers are the class at the top.  Collette (1) is proven at the level and in the going and Lighthouse (2) comes back from a handy run in the Doncaster.  Promise of Success (7) gets Bowman and will handle the going.

Selections – 14-1-2-7

Quaddie Time

We will have a crack at Sydney but it’ll be tough!

Leg 1 – 2, 4, 5, 8, 11, 13

Leg 2 – 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9

Leg 3 – 1, 2, 3, 7, 14

Leg 4 – 2, 4

360 Combinations, $30 investment returns 8.33% of the dividend.


Go Daniel, Go Blues

Cheers, Sal


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  1. Daryl Schramm says

    Managed to get access to Kayo again the other day. Spent a bit of time on the Sky presentation of the F1 today. I reckon, from a distance away, your opening comments are on the money. And, you have 2 out of 2. 2 more than me!

  2. Rulebook says

    Sal likewise I went for the Cats purely because of the Big Os lack of discipline ( have tipped the same 9 )

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