Round 4 Preview – Statistics, Lies and R-E-S-P-E-C-T

Greetings All,


Much ado to be made next week for Mick to break Jock’s coaching record – but it is a convenient lie for the AFL.  Jock McHale did not even attend the 1930 Grand Final but is credited that game on his coaching record.  That would all be fine except that all the recent cases where coaches were not present at games have been credited to their stand in – the latest case being Alistair Clarkson’s time off last year when Brendon Bolton stepped in.


Then there is his concern on respect, I am not sure what he expects and he has been in the role for long enough to know that if the media smell blood they are like sharks to attack it.  The Blues are a bloodied mess at the moment and the Sharks are circling.  He does not necessarily afford too much respect back the other way either. But he has longevity – he has 3 flags – his players support him with a couple of exceptions.  So while he is not my favourite coach – I will show my respect and say well done Mick!


The big day though is ANZAC day – and the 100th anniversary of the landing at Gallipoli.  It is a time to respect and remember.  Some would argue that just having the one big game is better, I might agree at the AFL level.  But falling on a Saturday with local leagues hosting their regular fixtures, the ceremonies and commemorations to take place at those will show the respect the day deserves.


Then there is the tribunal – but not the AFL.  Yarran got his just desserts for not respecting Paul Chapman, some might say Paul Chapman should have respected the players code.  I don’t really think he could say Yarran didn’t hit him – but then again Joel Sellwood got Boomer off.  It is the SANFL where my target is, with the Port Adelaide Magpies astonishing challenge of the 3 game holiday to Andrew Moore for pushing an umpire.  Umpires need to be protected and respected, any contact however off-handed should not be allowed.  Kochie and his lads should go back to the Greg Williams – Sean Denham match where Diesel off handedly brushed the umpire away.  Blues complained about the hefty penalty – but the league did the right thing in protecting their official.  Port should be happy that he only got three weeks, respect the decision and move on.


As I will now and look at this weekend’s encounters


Rance-id ($1.32) vs Watt Duck ($4.00)

While Alex decides what part of the world he wants to be in, Jack Watts displays where he doesn’t really want to be.  Not sure the spotlight that shone on him was entirely fair – it was as he played his career so far.  Richmond have lost a fair bit of experience with Chaplin, Newman and Knights out, so the Demons with their endeavour should make a challenging encounter.  The Tiges will need to afford their opponent more respect than they did two weeks ago, I reckon Dimma will have this covered.  However I reckon Melbourne are worth a shekel and anything better than $3.50 must be respected


The Boots ($3.30) vs Judderless ($1.42)

Wellington will host the further weakened Blues at the Cake Tin for an early start to Australian ANZAC day – it really will be like a curtain-raiser.  St Kilda still with Riewoldt and Montagna, the Blues continue to lose players with Judd and Yarran out.  Carlton needs to earn some respect and probably have the experience to deal with the Saints – but blimey those odds are very skinny.  The Saints have some familiarity with the ground and expect a willing encounter – but I expect experience to prevail.  Sainters should be prepared to gobble up $3.00.


Up the Guts ($1.43) vs A Mark for Effort ($3.25)

The Bombers boast one of the most respected spines in the league and with the addition of speed they look a tough opponent and one that looks to have too much on the Pies this week.  The Pies might have a chance if the umpires pay marks for effort as they did last week with Jamie Elliott – umpires can make errors but Ling and Carey in the commentary box to say it should have been paid for the effort was rubbish.  The rules are the rules and they need to be respected.  ANZAC Day can throw surprise results and if Swan and Pendlebury can stamp themselves on the game any result is possible.  Just not sure they quite have the support level needed to get them over the line.  Bombers to win.


Newest Kids on the Block ($1.50) vs 2nd Newest Kids on the Block ($2.98)

We get to see who has the better list!  The Suns without Gazza took it right up to Geelong but maybe the captain was the difference when Joel took over.  The Giants may have gained some respect late against Sydney but the scoreboard flattered them.  The one thing the Giants have is Mummy – he will be the most influential big man on the ground and I suspect will lead his team to victory.


Saturday Night Fever

Such mouth-watering encounters – this could very well be a preview of the Preliminary Finals!


Whose Lobbed In ($2.44) vs Bully Boys ($1.68)

No doubt these two teams respect each other!  Doubts about Port should have been dispelled after a stirring win last week and the return of Lobbe will provide Coach Kenny with another weapon releasing Ryder for more time up forward.  The Hawks meanwhile bullied the Dogs into submission last week, but I am paying more respect to their match the week prior.  They certainly adjusted their defensive mindset last week, Port will be a harsher test.  For Port the loss of Wines will be a challenge, others will have to step up to the physical contest in the middle against Hodge, Lewis and the like.  I respect both teams, but they are yet to show the consistency of last year.  Suspect Hawthorn are going slightly better and they are my selection, but this should be close to a flip of the coin game so anything over $2.20 for Port should be respected.


Barracudas ($1.67) vs Tony Manero ($2.48)

I can visualise Buddy in the white tearing up the dancefloor a la John Travolta – but first he has to deal with the enemy.  Freo play the role of the Barracudas to perfection – but maybe I have not paid them enough respect.  Nat Fyfe would be OK in the white suit. They look so much more offensive this year – does the loss of Crowley help them win more footy?  This should be one tough encounter and Fremantle will have steeled themselves for it.  Their midfield has been outstanding and I expect them to be able to win enough footy to counter the Swans.  Again though a flip of the coin game, so $2.20 or better on the Bloods is fair.


Rodney Dangerfield ($3.05) vs Arethra Franklin ($1.47)

No Respect I tell ‘ya – that’s what the Lions have at the moment.  But the inclusion of Rockliff might help them earn some.  Meanwhile as Aretha demanded it – the Eagles need to earn it also.  Freo well and truly put the Carlton game into perspective.  I suspect the Eagles forward line will be too much for the Lions.  But with the battle for respect on, Brisbane should make this a tough encounter.


Joelly Good ($2.52) vs Waite for Respect ($1.64)

Can Joel lift his team up and over again – a much tougher assignment this week and without a couple of his assistants.  The focus is really on the likes of Murdoch, Duncan, Smedts etc to perform major roles in a big game.  It will be an equivalent test for the Roos who could not quite do it last week, but will certainly get some respect if they can nail Geelong at Geelong.  I did note Waite’s lack of numbers against a top side – the only way to really judge a team or player.  The Satchel Swingers have the Roos as short priced favourites and on form it is probably deserved, but the cattery is a fortress that is rarely breached.  It is looking a bit vulnerable, but I am still with the Cats.


Michael ($3.95) vs Daniel ($1.32)

The Talia boys face each other, with Michael’s Bulldogs looking for respect after falling away badly last week.  Daniel’s mob had a feisty encounter with Melbourne but prevailed.  How Footscray approach the Dangerfield problem will be interesting after this week’s commentary on the tagging effort of Bernie Vince.  The Doggies will hit back, but the Crows have too many guns.


Friar Time

Coaches Baker and Harrison recorded their first wins with the Seniors and Reserves getting over Bulleen-Templestowe, the Under 19s recorded a solid win over Collegians.  This week the Friars will host a commemoration before the senior game against Old Geelong, should be a great test against one of last year’s finalists.  The Under 19s head to Fitzroy for a game against a well credentialed opponent.


Go Blues, Go Friars,

Cheers, Sal


  1. Hope you had a shekel or two on the Dees, Sal

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