Round 3 – Sal’s Preview: Saturday Night’s Alright for Footy – on Free-to-air

 

 

 

Greetings All,

 

The AFL is unapologetically a commercial organisation, they also enjoy the largesse of the federal government which classifies them as a Not-for-profit organisation which provides them tax-free status.  With that comes a social license and surely that must come into question with the new broadcast agreement that blocks free to air TV coverage on Saturdays.  I am fortunate enough to be a subscriber but with the current economic climate not everyone can afford that.  Sure, they will tout that Thursday nights fill the gap, but footy has always been on a Saturday and the fans deserve it.  My views on Thursday Night footy have been well documented here, but this is a game that depends on the grass roots and kids playing not as many can watch Thursday nights being a school night and they can’t nip down to the local to watch on a Saturday night.  If the AFL aren’t required to pay taxes surely it can give the fans one game on FTA on a Saturday.

But we do have another Thursday Night game to kick off the round and few more to preview.

 

Not so Saad (35%) vs Tic, Tic, Tic (65%)

 

A couple if interesting debuts here with the Bombers unveiling mature age recruit Saad El-Hawli while Port have Tom Cochrane who will be the first AFL player with Tourette Syndrome.  A mighty effort from both of them.  The Bombers are trusting last week’s participants to respond with just the two forced changes due to injury, handy that Ridley is the other inclusion.  While they might respond they have also made it clear they are rebuilding the list, it will be too tough against Port who have only lost one game in the Loungeroom from their last 12.

 

A Case for the Defence (44%) vs I am Sam (56%)

 

Initially had hopes for the Blues in this with the Bulldogs significant injury list, however it is clear the Carlton defence is jittery at best with experienced players like Haynes, McGovern and Young in a state of panic, making basic errors and too easily beaten in the contest.  They can ill afford that up against Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton.  The Blues may get an ascendency in the middle where Bontempelli and Treloar are still missing, but there a plenty of dogs to step up plus an ex-Blue in Matthew Kennedy.  Curnow and McKay have both looked short of a gallop in their respective outings, they will need to be up to the mark against Jones and Lobb.  Just think the Bulldogs are more settled and less prone to panic.

 

Gawn? (41%) vs Mac Attack (59%)

 

Are the Demons Gawn?  We can be too quick to write teams off – Brisbane was 0-3 last year.  Perhaps looking at the question with respect to the protagonist might be more important.  Max had a tough day last week and his team didn’t fire, the week before he dominated the rucks and almost got his team over the line.  How does the midfield operate when he is not giving them silver service?  Will be a great test for him this week up against Jarrod Witts.  The Suns will also get Mac Andrew back into the line-up, but the loss of Charlie Ballard will hurt their stability down back.  The Suns demolished the Eagles, but we don’t really know what that form will be, they are not frequent visitors to the G so Melbourne have everything in their favour to open their account.  If they don’t – do we have the answer to the question?

 

Felinacide (94%) vs Reality Checked (6%)

 

The Saints continued their impressive run against the Cats but just as pleasing will be the response after their inadequate performance against Adelaide.  They take on the Tigers who were smacked by Port making amends for their loss to Collingwood giving them the standard Adelaide Oval Flat Track Bully Boy thumping.  Lynch returning will help but expect the Saints to almost repeat the dose Port delivered.

 

Wizardry (68%) vs Highly Strung (33%)

 

Is this a Grand Final Preview in Tassie?  What a treat for Launceston to have the Hawks and Giants clashing on Saturday Night.  Hawthorn with their small forwards and Watson in particular were too quick for Blues, their speed might be matched by the Giants.  GWS were missing a few key players but were good enough to get over Melbourne two weeks ago.  They get Briggs back and probably Hogan to make them better, we could even see The Package unwrapped – Stringer still subject to a fitness test.  Should be a ripper with two of the best teams to watch in the competition but going with the Hawks at their “home” ground.

 

KoTJ (75%) vs Any Danger (25%)

 

Brisbane got a fright at the Gabbatoir from the Eagles last week while the Cats struggled against St Kilda, to no-one’s surprised Patrick Dangerfield escaped suspension for an incident not dissimilar to the one Tom Lynch copped a week for – the Sgt Wiggum response again.  This is one of the games postponed due to Alfred, lo an behold Brisbane is predicted to get as much as 120mm of rain leading into this one.  Both teams have the body size and maturity to handle poor conditions, for the Cats chances much will depend on the availability of Smith and Stewart.  Geelong are usually conservative in their approach with that in mind suspect Brisbane will maintain their home record.

Shame both games will be behind the paywall!

 

Shut the Back Door (98%) vs Deestroyers (2%)

 

Adelaide’s form has been as good as any so far easily averaging the highest scores so far, they host the Roos who have also scored heavily despite suffering a defeat.  They blitzed the Demons last week.  The slight concern for the Crows being that they still conceded 100 points to the Bombers.  Overall they look to have most things in order and while the Kangas will be feisty Adelaide should prevail at home.

 

18 (7%) vs 17 (93%)

 

Not often the derby is between the bottom two on the table!  West Coast eventually ran out of puff against the premiers while Freo were sunk by some late heroics from Joel Amartey, rated the Eagles effort better than Freo.  The Dockers should have the flair to not get forced into a grind but maybe Longmuir is still trying to coach Lyon out of them?  A similar performance from the Eagles could win this, surely though Fremantle will let themselves go and be good enough to win this.

 

Track Time

 

We are back at Flemington for The Australian Cup the final top level event in Victoria for the season while at Rosehill we have a couple at the top level including one to treasure.

 

Flemington

 

Race 8 – The Australian Cup (G1, 2000m, WFA)

 

What a great renewal this is!  Pride of Jenni (6) completed a magnificent return with an all the way win in the Peter Young, can she repeat the dose here.  She was able to control the race as she pleased, this will not be as simple with the presence of Deny Knowledge (9) who also likes to lead and control the race.  Reckon Jenni can do it but they might undo each other.  Middle Earth (4) gets Zahra won his first start in Australia over this journey, Atishu (7) has outstanding form at Flemington and gets to her best distance, Zardozi (8) chased Jenni home at Caulfield has a couple of lengths to make up but the extra 200m might be enough.  Feroce (10), Light Infantry Man (1), Attrition (2) could all salute – great race!

Selections – 6-4-7-8-1

 

Rosehill

 

Race 6 – Vinery Stud Stakes (G1, 2000m, 3YO Fillies SW)

 

The short odds for Treasurethe Moment (1) makes this a race to watch, she has been the dominant filly in Melbourne and can see no reason she will not continue her run in Sydney provided she handles the opposite direction.  Trainers usually get all that covered.  Waller will always have presence Movin Out (2), Declichy Boulevard (5) and Real Class (4) makes up his team.  Jmac steering Movin Out (2) makes her the best of them.  Benagil (6) ran brilliantly last start to win, takes a step up but might have improved from the spring and Powers of Opal (3) is a close watch with the ATC Derby and Oaks coming up.

Selections – 1-2-6-5

 

Race 8 – Tancred Stakes (G1, 2400m, WFA)

 

CJW has a handy record with imported mares, brings River of Stars (14) here and puts JMac on.  In the money 12 from 15 and 2 wins and a 2^nd over the distance, looks a better value bet than Dubai Honour (1) although he is the known article on these shores.  Had to be impressed with the former Melbourne Cup favourite Vauban (2) who won his first race in Australia last start and Duke de Sessa (4) will appreciate getting out this distance.

Selections – 14-1-2-4

 

Quaddie

 

Flemington

Leg 1 – 1, 3, 6, 7, 15

Leg 2 – 1, 4, 6, 7, 8

Leg 3 – 1, 3, 4, 9

Leg 4 – 1, 9, 13

 

300 Combinations, $30 investment will return 10% of the dividend.

Go Blues,

Cheers, Sal

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