A few thoughts from Harms on the final round of the AFL.
http://tatts.com/news/2012/8/27/afl-round-23
About John Harms
JTH is a writer, publisher, speaker, historian. He is publisher and contributing editor of The Footy Almanac and footyalmanac.com.au. He has written columns and features for numerous publications. His books include Confessions of a Thirteenth Man, Memoirs of a Mug Punter, Loose Men Everywhere, Play On, The Pearl: Steve Renouf's Story and Life As I Know It (with Michelle Payne). He appears (appeared?) on ABCTV's Offsiders. He can be contacted [email protected] He is married to The Handicapper and has three school-age kids - Theo, Anna, Evie. He might not be the worst putter in the world but he's in the worst four. His ambition was to lunch for Australia but it clashed with his other ambition - to shoot his age.
If I were a betting man (which harsh experience has forced me not to be – so why take my advice anyway?) – the Dockers at the tight margin lines is the bet of the century.
As any jockey or trainer will tell you its much easier to pull a horse than ensure it wins, so a Go Slow last half to keep the margin tight and finish 8th is much more likely than a goal fest to finish 6th.
I doubt the bookies will be taking margin bets after the Swans and Roos games are over. Or the odds will be framed to 200% markets (like the trots).
Only 2 questions will be:
– Are the Demons good enough to score against a team that is not trying?
– Is there a rule requiring Ross Lyon to keep 18 men on the field – I foresee a mass outbreak of halitosis among the players in the 3Q time huddle. Pavlich, Fyfe, Mundy, Ballantyne, Sandilands, McPharlin – all subbed out simultaneously. Ross will claim that he thought the game was under VFA Rules.
Dockers by 4 goals under a strangle. The last quarter will be the best blooper reel of all time – the Demons Flat Out versus the Dockers on Mandrax.
As per English Soccer last round – all AFL matches that could affect finals positions MUST have same Saturday start times in future years.
TIme to FIX the FIXED FIXTURE.