Round 15 – Sal’s Preview: Back in the USSR

 

Greetings All,

 

Laura Kane and the AFL have gone straight to the soviet playbook with their weekly ‘showpiece’ to explain umpiring decisions.  Not sure Tass could have come up with the drivel ‘Nova’ came out with in explaining the non-fifty metre penalty that should have been paid to Bailey Scott.  Treating the fans as fools fools no-one!  This weekly fluff piece will become a further source of derision and comedy if this kind of stuff continues.  It’s OK to say the umpires made an error, they would have plenty more during the game as well as the players.  Umpiring is a tough job and even tougher in the cauldron of 40,000 fans.  North fans won’t like it, but they didn’t like the non-call anyway.  If the League want to explain decisions in this manner at least put some independence in the room so this drivel so this drivel can be challenged.

 

As for the number of games ‘affected’ by decisions late in games.  Are we really seeing more of that – or are we just seeing more close games!  Haven’t done the analysis – yet, however it seems we are having more close games this season compared to most.  The state of the ladder would seem to reflect that also considering Geelong could finish the round anywhere from 2^nd to 9^th on the table dependent on results.

 

Only six games this week all potentially having a significant impact on the fortunes of the combatants.

 

 

With all Due Respect (68%) vs Danger Time (32%)

 

The Carlton Respects campaign is a worthy cause with an important message around gender equality and inclusion.  They may not have respected the opposition in enough of these games as they have lost most if not all of the games where this message has been highlighted.  They certainly need to respect Jeremy Cameron who has starred in their last two encounters, the match up will be critical.  Lewis Young had the job last time, since that game the opposition have been more successful with a running player going with him.  Does Scott flip and have him playing more forward to exploit that?  Then there is Dangerfield who returns from injury incurred while setting up the previous victory over the Blues a mere 6 matches ago, one of the vagaries stupidities of the fixture.  However, for all that Cartlon have found form, consistency, and a couple of players.  Kemp, Cowan and Cincotta have stepped up into the best 22, while the move of Williams up forward has filled the hole left by Jack Martin’s absence.  De Koning’s form has seen the Cats looking to match his athleticism with Blicavs in the ruck – although some ducks and drakes going on there with Pittonet and Stanley both listed as emergencies.  The Blues are favoured based on recent form but the Cats have been a nemesis for a long time so it really should be line ball.  And if it’s line ball then I am with the Blues in what should be a great contest.

 

 

Sugar Hit (47%) vs Revillery (53%)

 

The stakes could not be much higher for Port and Brisbane at the Adelaide Oval.  Port have gone with Sweet in the ruck and the usual whipping boys of Evans and Williams pay the price for last week’s loss. For the Lions they have a little extra incentive as their pillar in defence Harris Andrews plays his 200^th game.  Like the Blues injuries to players has opened opportunity for others with the emergence of Bruce Reville, Kai Lohman and Logan Morris all showing they are up to the level and adding depth to the squad.  The consequences of a loss for both teams is significant, Port fall further back into the pack of contenders while for Brisbane they drop behind 50% win-loss and potentially out of the contenders pack.  The Lions appear to have a better-balanced line up that can win this but very wary that Port are so much better at home.  For Port to win the trinity of Rozee, Butters and the Hornet will have to get off the chain.

 

 

Sam Slammed (17%) vs Party On! (83%)

 

Another game with consequences – at least for the Giants.  A win puts them back in the top 4 a loss puts them back in the pack.  Men around Australia cringed collectively with the news of Sam Taylor’s injury, he would have been the likely match up for Joel Amartey who partied on the Crows with nine goals last week.  The return of Ash will release some of the pressure off Whitfield with both threats running off half back, while Cadman has made way for debutante Max Gruzewski.  Sydney also has a first gamer in Caiden Cleary.  The Swans have an air of invincibility conceding starts to the opposition in recent matches before overpowering them comprehensively, they can ill afford to do that each week and especially here as the Giants are very good front runners.  Reckon the Giants can cover the loss of Taylor and are a real chance however they need their forwards to win more contests especially Toby Greene to win this.  Everything would need to go right, while for the Swans everything is already which makes them the choice.

 

 

Deespondent () vs What’s the Point ()

 

A few weeks ago, this fixture looked like a simple task for Melbourne in their pursuit of a top four finish.  The game is also Melbourne’s game to support another key charity in BCNA, the Pink Lady might not be out there but grab the pink beanie and support a great cause.  It is now a critical game for them not just with respect to the ladder position.  The injury to Petracca has not only taken out one of their key players but caused a furore that the club an ill afford.  We do wish Christian a speedy recovery.  We expected a bold showing from them against the Pies and got nothing, they just have to turn up this week or the spiral will continue.  North got so many plaudits for their effort last week, do they back it up or rejoice in the effort?  Such a fuss has been made on the umpiring in that game, a bit more focus should be on the coach and player errors made that may have contributed.  In what universe has Liam Sheils ever had the legs to go with Nick Daicos?  The umpiring probably would not have come into question if not for Zac Fisher’s poor kickout resulting in the go-ahead goal.  Did they learn?  We have seen the Hawks learn from a heart-breaking defeat and turn their season around, the Roos might not quite be there.  With much trepidation giving this to the Demons otherwise there will be even more of them within the club next week.

 

 

The X Factor () vs The O Factor ()

 

Essendon get Xavier Duursma back in the team to provide extra running power off the wing, while for the Eagles Oscar Allen returns after a long layoff.  Suspect the return of Allen will have most significance giving the Eagles a three headed monster up forward with Darling and Waterman.  Just not sure it will get there enough without Reid, Kelly and Sheed.  The Bombers should get themselves back on the winner list here.

 

 

Dog Day Afternoon () vs This Land is my Land, This Land is Uwland ()

 

An incredible lack of performance from Freo last week exposing a real issue of consistency – their best is superb and then there was last week.  They get back home to the adoration of their fans which should be too good for the Suns who have their travelling challenges well documented.  Gold Coast have certainly found a beauty in Bodhi Uwland but they will have challenges at the other end without the services of Ben King.

 

 

Friar Time

 

After being challenged early the Friars kicked away for a strong win over Aquinas in the seniors while the Reserves were in control for most of the game to also win comfortably.  The thirds came up a against a strong, mature outfit in West Brunswick who just kicked away late to win.  While the Women had a convincing win over Hawthorn.  This week the girls go to Trinity where the winner will stay in touch with the top four, to do the same the threes need to beat UHS-VU at Royal Park.  The Seniors and Reserves host Bulleen-Templestowe.  The Bullants beat the Animals last week to help the Friars into the four a win here would consolidate that spot, with the reserves in a similar position.

 

A quick note to indicate this is likely to the penultimate edition before the finals as the Olympics are calling.

 

Go Blues, Go Friars,

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

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