Round 13 – Sal’s Preview: Duck, duck big goose!

Greetings All,

We are back to Thursday Night Footy so the predictions are tough and timelines tight. Just not enough time to cover some of the hot topics of the week.

Ginnivan Ducking – pay the frees if they are there, but umpires are only human and do not like being made to look like a fool. He makes his bed and needs to lie in it.

The Premiership Defence – is it on the brink.? Will one incident destroy the culture – or more importantly – does the Demon defence all revolve around Steven May? Monday will tell us a lot.

Not so Dim ($1.58) vs Too Clever Kenny ($2.70)

The form guide for both of these reads pretty well winning four of their last five, they have taken the scalps they needed to. Richmond go into this with two ruckmen, while Port do not have a recognised ruckman in the 22. Probably a Kenny tactic not wanting to be too top heavy in the cold and wet conditions, the issue is you still need to have size. Nank and Soldo have that size and can forge a path for their fleet footed midfielder. Where they may be vulnerable is down back where they could be top heavy, but Dimma has enough magnets to move around if required. They will enjoy being back on the MCG and should hold sway.

Hanging by a String ($3.50) vs Another one Bites the Dust ($1.38)

Can the Blues cover another key loss and not many more key than Weitering? If the replacement is not up to it then ‘Two Metre Peter ‘could create havoc. The Bombers also get Stringer back who is always a handful whether playing back or forward, but have they rushed him back prematurely? The Draper – de Koning matchup could be one we are watching for years. This should come down to supply and the Blues midfield should have the physical edge in what could be tough conditions. With that expect them to get back on the winners list.

Dare to Dream ($1.17) vs The Jai Curve ($6.00)

Freo fans are pretty bullish and for pretty good reason. Nat Fyfe will return but can’t get a spot in the midfield – he takes the place of Michael Frederick up forward after an ill-advised beer or two. Handy swap. They host the Hawks who are developing one of the better midfielders in the competition in Jai Newcombe. They will run and run to try and penetrate a very well-organised Docker defence. Not sure they will get through enough.

Back to the Jungle ($1.39) vs Take it to the Max ($3.30)

What a great test for the Saints! No better audit than a visit to the Gabba, especially when the Lions are coming off a loss. The Lions get Joe back and with McStay and Hipwood should stretch the St Kilda defence. The match up at the other end is a beauty, not many with the reach of Max King. Harris Andrews had a bit of a ‘mare last week and will be keen to atone, losing Darcy Garder stretches their defence. Overall though Brisbane at the Gabba is a pretty safe selection and it’s the one for this week.

Sunburnt ($5.30) vs Spiked Up ($1.18)

How many will turn up? The Roos were put away by the Suns after a promising start, they take on the Giants whose 14 point loss at the Gabba is pretty good form for this. They have made a fair start under Mark McVeigh.

Taking Fly-te ($2.92) vs Hangover ($1.51)

The Queen’s Birthday fixture looks a lot different to what it was four weeks ago. The form guide has been flipped with Collingwood winning their last three and the Demons losing a couple. The losses should be kept in perspective, they were to well-credentialled opposition and missing key personnel. That personnel will not be back though after some extraordinary behaviour. Is it the first outward sign of the Dees getting ahead of themselves? The reality is that they have been masking issues up forward all season – and losing Tom McDonald doesn’t help. Suspect though that their rucks and midfield should be up for this and they get back on track, if the Pies get up it could be a slippery slope for the premiers.

Go Blues,

Cheers, Sal

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