Round 13 Preview – It’s a Pie Sore

Greetings All,

 

They don’t get to play this week but there is something smelly at the bakery.  The Malthouse-Buckley agreement sort of made sense but was never going to work, Mick is far too selfish to act in the interests of the club. Instead of a guiding hand Bucks has an army of assistants who he would consider all beneath him – none have coached an AFL team in their own right. It is not a criticism of Buckley just his set up – he needs a sage. Maybe it’s there in the form of Balme and others but it does not seem evident. Many will put it down to personality and maybe it is, but the players do not appear to be revolting and you don’t recruit Adams and Treloar without a good pitch.

 

So are the ingredients the baker is using not quite right? Undoubtedly there are a few choice cuts not available to him, but the ones that are leftover do not seem to go well together. No doubt they are well away from the best 22, but there are some basics that are just not happening. The other part that is missing is resilience – the Pies under Bucks have always been a good backs to the wall team but that trait is not evident this year. Not sure how they thought they could beat Gawn by loading up with four inferior ruckmen, big Max has had a handy support crew that also needed to be constrained.

 

Then there is Travis Cloke – no doubt he is out of touch – there is also no doubt he is the most feared Pie. Dropping him after one game sends all sorts of messages and none of them complimentary, he was not worst performer in the Port Adelaide game. Have heard talk that the game has passed him and that forwards need to “hit the logos”, he was one of the first forwards that lead hard up to the wings. His cards would seem to have been marked and the question is where will he finish up?

 

But enough of that schadenfreude we have half a dozen games for decision this week and this tipster needs to get back on the game after a shocker last week!

 

It’s Majak ($3.85) vs Still the Benchmark ($1.30)

What a great start for the weekend! The Roos have failed their two toughest tests so far and maybe shy on personnel, but the Hawks have been shy on personnel all year and getting the job done. Both clubs have had the favour of a pretty soft draw. Goldstein’s presence looms large again, but he seems off his game at the moment.  McEvoy and Ceglar should provide worthy opposition. At their feet the Roos could be in trouble with missing Swallow and Cunnington, Dal Santo and Atley. For one Daniel Wells the Hawks raise one Cyril Rioli – both are worth the admission ticket. The forwards at both ends make the difference for mine. Those North talls are off their best – Waite is out with Daw to slot into his role and assist in the ruck. The small Hawk forwards could be too nimble for the North defence and that is why they are my selection in a tough one.

 

Cut from Rock ($9.40) vs Lie Set ($1.10)

Not sure what the crime was but Scott Lycett could not have picked a worse time to cross the leadership group. Which provides a great question with respect the Eagles as there was very little evidence of any leadership in the final quarter last week. But with no Nic Nat the rucks are exposed. But not as exposed as the Lions who were bereft of effort and energy last week – can the full blowtorch be applied in Brisbane. Cutler and Rockliff need a few more drivers not passengers. Just can’t select Brisbane till we see something better, but they have been known to upset the Eagles at the Gabba so $8.00 could attract a speculative shekel.

 

Threepeaters? ($2.40) vs This Year’s Tigers? ($1.70)

Unless there is a great fall Port look destined for ninth and again be the best team outside. They have played some good footy of late and adapted to the lack of a genuine ruckman. However, Freo have also struck a vein of form and dealt with both Essendon and Brisbane decisively – can they get three on the trot? Hard to have given who they beaten but at home with a bit of confidence has me thinking they are up for it and can produce an upset.

 

Beverages? ($2.28) vs Dynamic Duo ($1.74)

Cats and Dogs in the loungeroom makes for a Saturday Night feast. The Cats beat North with huge performances from Dangerfield and Selwood, but they have spent all week talking up the efforts also of Smith, Guthrie and others. Are they too reliant on the Dynamic Duo? The Dogs in the meantime keep on replacing injured warriors with good ones and appear to spread the load more evenly, mind you a couple of Jake Stringer or Bontempelli moments can set the game up. That evenness has me selecting the Dogs expecting that they will have strategy to counter Dangerfield and Selwood, but certainly concede the Cats a mighty chance.

 

Tipped Out ($1.28) vs Gawn Skiiing? ($4.00)

Losing Tippett presents a huge challenge for Sydney facing Max Gawn and the Dees, but the game will be played in their backyard which has been impregnable this year. Melbourne are certainly better, however apart from their Round 1 win over GWS who were not quite ready they have pretty much played to the form guide. No reason to think that will change and expect Sydney to prevail.

 

Stanking ($21) vs Orphans ($1.04)

Whether Essendon are tanking or not, they are certainly stinking the competition with sides scheduled to play them twice getting a percentage free-kick! This week it is the Giants who go in without their Mummy – which for a change will not make a skerrick of difference.

 

Friar Time

 

Friars have also pretty much played to form and this week head to Therry Penola with the opportunity to cause an upset. The Under 19s are at Friar Park and take on the rampaging Parkdale and will be looking for a big effort.

 

Go Friars,

Cheers, Sal

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Comments

  1. Peter_B says:

    ABBB. Anyone but Brisbane; Bye; Bombers. My Eagles lack talent pushing up from below, so a lot of out of form players are still getting a gig.
    The fixture has been kind, and we will still beat Brisbane by 4 or 5 goals but punters will get some nice value backing them at the line. I don’t see a blowout.
    I see 18 holes of golf while checking the AFL app on each tee box and muttering “bloody Eagles”.
    I enjoy your weekly previews Sal. Keep up the good work.

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