Round 11 – Sal’s Preview: They Keep on Rolling

 

 

 

Greetings All,

 

Hope those in Melbourne are coping, have some assistance here from the team at Hawkers Beer.  We are still getting some close games and a beauty between the Saints and Suns, however interesting that we are seeing many more blowouts in the last couple of weeks.  Now we have 9 games to cram in through to Wednesday.

 

Gray Zone ($1.95) vs The Gropers ($2.04)

 

A twilight zone encounter between the two form teams of the competition.  Port have been terrific but are 2-2 against teams in the eight so the questions still remain.  This is the game that answers them – a win over Richmond will not only stamp their credentials it probably makes them favourite to win the whole damn thing.  For this week at least.  Richmond have been able to inflict their style in matches over the last few weeks.  They both have good tall forwards and defenders that can intercept and rebound.  Port’s defenders might not quite have the size to match up on Lynch, while Balta will have a real test against Charlie.  Will be interesting to see how aggressive Port are with their kick outs which have been more central than to the boundary, turnovers by the Tigers are returned with interest.  Sam Powell-Pepper has taken responsibility for the opposition bulls, takes are very good matador to tame Dusty.  No Cotchin has some effect on the Tigers.  Still want to see Port beat the best and not sure they show us this week.

 

A Bit Rich ($1.43) vs A Bit Naughty ($3.25)

 

Another Saturday special with a couple of the better teams to watch, unfortunately there are no points in for style.  Both the Lions and Dogs matched it with their opponents last match however their poor conversion rate ruined their chances to win.  Aaron Naughton’s return can’t come too soon to assist Bruce who just cannot be the pea, while Wallis continues to be their most dangerous forward.  The Lions were ultimately overwhelmed by the Tigers but the return of Birchall., Rich and Lester will stiffen the back line.  Will come down to the middle and reckon Brisbane can grab the ascendancy here with enough Neale, Zorko, Berry and their offsiders bouncing back.  The Gabba also sways this one to the Lions.

 

Jeremy ($1.25) vs Mitch ($4.10)

 

Both McGovern’s are uncertain to get to the start line this week, but both their clubs will be keen to perform this week.  The Eagles are getting closer to the end of their honeymoon at home but the trip back has been worthwhile winning every encounter and providing a great launch pad toward the finals.  The Blues on the other hand face a tough time in Perth after surrendering to the Hawks last week, plenty of good work through the season is undone by such a poor performance.  Blue supporters expect so much of Patrick Cripps, he though needs to understand what he is and is not capable of.  The team cannot succeed if he does not trust his teammates as appeared last week.  Pittonet has been mighty against the odds but will be put to the sword this week against the mighty Nic Nat.  The Eagles are on their deck and flying and should have too many weapons in this one.

 

Please Sir Can I have some more ($1.53) vs Culled ($2.50)

 

The Dees certainly want more of Oliver who was supreme in their demolition of the Crows.  A functioning forward line helped along with sound defense led by May.  When the Demons are on they are great to watch.  They take on the Roos who are being decimated with injuries adding Ben Brown to the already long list.  They were valiant against the Cats but 25-12 in scoring shots is a true reflection of the gulf.  North will try hard and that can be enough against Melbourne, just don’t think it will be this time.

 

Track Time

 

The first group race of the season at Fabulous Flemington.  An ordinary week of weather might see the track get into the same range as most of the Sydney meetings so do the form with caution.  Rail being out 10 metres might help the on speed runners around the bend while up the straight their could be a benefit with the wider runner on better ground.

 

Happy to be on the Payne-Egan combination with Double You Tee (R1, #3) in the opener gets weight relief and looks better value than the favourite.  No real opinion on the next so at odds I’d be happy to go with The Blue Army andFatigues (R2, #3).  Similar challenge in the third where

Royal Filly (R3, #4) has most appeal.  Ripper race follows plenty of chances and the return of Navaisha (R4, #5) to watch, the 3kg claim for Winning Partner (R4, #7) has me stumping up again.  The Oaks winner Miami Bound (R5, #3) returns and has plenty going for her, won here, won over the distance and undefeated in slow.  Not sure the 61kg will help so will favour GSOB’s charge Laburnum (R5, #11).

 

Race 6 – Aurie’s Star Handicap (G3, 1200m, HCP)

 

Only eight left in the field but a pretty handy lot.  We get a soft track and we get Great Again (5) has won down the straight and reckon the outside barrier will help.  Widgee Turf (4)  is a ripper and we get the Payne-Egan pairing.  Plenty of support for Home of the Brave (2) and is a consistent performer but no wins since September 2018 probably make him a good place chance, as is another ex non-winner in So Si Bon (1) who did in fact win this race last year.  All of the others have claims.

 

Selections 5-4-1-2

 

Looking away from the favourite in the next despite the impressive win last start Skyman (R7, #5) has only won on good ground.  Makes it pretty tough but happy to be on the other Waller runner in Kentucky Tornado (R7, #8).  Octane (R8, #6) hits Melbourne in great form and with a great soft track record, P Stokes knows when to bring them over.  $5 the field is not how we like to close out the quaddie, a speculative gamble on Antagoniser (R9, #16) ok in the going and running second to Rubisaki is pretty handy.

 

Quaddie

 

Typically tough Flemington quaddie leaving a few out to make it affordable – but be nicer to win it!

 

Leg 1 – 1, 2, 4, 5

Leg 2 – 2, 5, 8, 9, 10

Leg 3 – 2, 6, 11, 12

Leg 4 – 7, 9, 16

 

Go Blues,

 

Cheers, Sal

 

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Comments

  1. Torrential rain and wind in Perth on Sunday and Monday. Not my Eagles go. Your Blues are a silly chance in the slop. I’m not turning up for this game and fear the Eagles could do the same.
    Stay safe.

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