Round 10 – Sal’s Preview (Part 2): In Danger!

 

Greetings Again,

 

What a performance from the Suns putting paid to the criticism of the footy at the venue.  Yes, it’s slippery but if you adapt and play territory you can score.  Geelong still managed to kick 15 goals and being only the 3^rd game this season where both sides scored a century.  The aggregate score of 264 comfortably eclipsing the previous mark of 232.

 

What about the Cats?  Were they arrogant in resting Hawkins, Duncan and Stanley?  Maybe it sent the wrong message but doubt any of those three would have made the difference and it is not as if Geelong are not used to giving players a break.  It could be just an outlier with the vagaries of the conditions.  However they have lost their last three which all coincide with Patrick Dangerfield’s absence.

 

Now for the rest of this week’s games.

 

 

Golden Years (99%) vs Tough Years (1%)

 

Kanga fans will vent as their team go up against a couple past players in McKay and Goldstein.  How important has Goldy been for the Bombers with Draper’s injury challenges?  While Ben McKay has won 6 from 9 as a Bomber after 8 from 71 with the Roos.  About to be 7 from 10.

 

Butters Up (98%) vs Weddling Day (2%)

 

Rozee might have been missing, no issue for Port and Butters and Horne-Francis picked up the slack and took it to the Cats.  They get to host the Hawks who have won their last couple and seeing improvement in the younger brigade including Weddle and Watson.  The bridge over Port might be a bit too far.

 

H2O (3%) vs Going Nuts (97%)

 

Jake Waterman is an important inclusion for the Eagles as they host the Demons.  Melbourne welcomes the inclusion of McAdam to the line up to try and provide an extra dimension and option up forward.  At home the Eagles will be feisty but he Demons should be too good.

 

 

Track Time

 

Back to HQ this week with a ticket into the Cup part of the prize for the winner of the Andrew Ramsden Stakes.  The Group 1 caravan heads north to Brisbane for the running of the Doomben 10,000.

 

We will leave the babies alone in the opener, but open proceedings with Moveforlex (R2, #12) failed last start but won here prior to that and get a big weight drop.  Moor Mumm (R3, #9) was also a winner here last start and get weight relief from the favourite that she beat that day.  Elphinstone is not here so Modown (R4, #2) looks a very good chance as does White Bear (R5, #13) after not quite hanging on at Caulfield.  Since we like Moveforlex then Heed the Omens (R6, #4) must come into calculations after just going under to him last start.  In the same race at longer odds a bit of interest in Yototsu (R6, #15) 3^rd up with the breeding to suggest the trip will suit.

 

The Straight Six is a ripper with great depth, happy to take a throw at the stumps with Joyful Fortune (R7, #1).  Been off the scene for 80 weeks but a two-time winner down the straight and now in hands of C Maher.  A few more to go in the quaddie.  The Adelaide Cup quinella meet again with the Melbourne Cup in mind, reckon the weight swing gives and edge to The Map (R8, #12) but not sure $3 is good betting value.  El Soleado (R9, #2) just keeps on running well and gets a bit more room to chase down Dashing (R9, #11).  Sticking to the Flemington form in the last with Pondalowie (R10, #7) but certainly wary of a couple of newcomers.

 

Quaddie

 

Leg 1 – 1, 4, 5, 6, 7

Leg 2 – 3. 5. 12

Leg 3 – 2, 6, 11

Leg 4 – 1, 7, 10, 11, 12

225 Combinations a $30 investment will return 13.33% of the dividend.

 

Doomben – Race 8 – Doomben 10,000 (G1, 1200m, WFA)

 

Named for the prize of £10,000 that the race was elevated to in 1946 suggests the monicker requires updates with the $1M on offer today.  I Wish I Win (1) has the credentials and record to be a justified favourite here but would be shopping for better value.  We might have it in the other Moody/Coleman runner Chain of Lighting (6) provided it does not get to a bottomless track like last start.  Bella Nipotina (5) won’t have an issue in the conditions and the some for Espiona (7) she might need luck from the outside gate, but it could be an advantage by Race 8.

 

Selections – 1-6-5-7

 

Friar Time

 

A terrific day for the club last week with four wins!  This week the men host Hawthorn in a battle for a spot in the four, while the reserves will look to consolidate.  The Women head to KB reserve against Richmond Centrals who are 7^thbut only one game in arrears from the Friars.  The 3s kick off the dew at Friar Park against MHSOB in what should be a good test.

 

Go Blues, Go Friars,

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

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