Greetings All,
Has sense prevailed with the AFL not scheduling Thursday Night games for the remainder of the season – as much as I’d like to think so, probably not. The sound of the fans dulled by the self-serving media who tell us it’s what the fans want, it’s actually what they want. As lovely as it to watch on Thursday nights, there is so much more at play about the overall health of the game that the “custodians” need to consider with grass roots footy the main consideration. It makes their Thursday Selection/Club nights difficult. It is also unfair on the home team, particularly in Melbourne. The Carlton v Melbourne game last week drew only 51,000 to the game, in any other timeslot it would have been at least 60,000. I’m sure the TV ratings did well but how did that affect the return for the Blues?
We must discuss Jeremy again and the concussion issue. Everything was tickety-boo with the league from what happened on the night after he landed on his head. It is the resultant week off that he is having now that has bigger ramifications. This will occur in a preliminary final, the players have indicated that the end of season bye should be moved to the week between he preliminary finals and grand final to avoid the possibility of a player missing due to concussion. Some might be severe enough two warrant a longer rest but the majority only miss a single match. This is a change that can be instigated immediately and ensure the first instance does not occur in 2024.
Darwinning (43%) vs Gee It’s a Long Way (57%)
The Cats travel to Darwin to take on the Suns who have made themselves a bit of a fortress up there. Not just by winning but winning big with an average margin of 45.8 points. The Cats have rested a couple of the elder statesmen in Hawkins, Duncan and Stanley for the Suns they have done it at both ends of the scale with Witts and Holman at the older end while rookies Rogers and Walter also sit it out. It makes the Moyle-Conway clash interesting as they are likely to be opponents for many years, however I think this is what swings the game Geelong’s way. The presence of Witts is so important to Gold Coast. The key factor against the Cats is that this is their first venture to the tropics.
Parked Outside (80%) vs Jacked Off (20%)
It’s not that Sydney don’t have injuries but as an indication of how well they are going it seems there is no room to Luke Parker into the team, the Blues on the other hand are losing cattle at a rate of knots with Cerra, Martin and Cotrell all added to the list from last week’s line up. Add to the potential of also losing Pittonet who is battling against time to recover from finger surgery this week. The Blues chances don’t hinge exclusively around that, however his ability to control stoppages could be a huge factor. Sydney wins this if they can get it outside their run and precision kicking will make it very hard to defend. The Blues will want it in close but that also detracts from getting the ball to their key weapons in attack quickly, the Sydney defence thrives on slow play. Carlton has enough guns to be able to win, but it is more likely to come down to the support cast and Sydney’s is as good as any in the competition – just ask Luke Parker.
Getting Gooey (87%) vs Pulling Rank (13%)
Jordy gets back for Collingwood who take on the Crows in the almost traditional timeslot at the G. Adelaide will have been looking forward to testing themselves against the premiers after losing both games last year by a cumulative 3 points. They are both playing good football, the Pies impressive with plenty of their best missing. The Crows improvement has coincided with the move of Izak Rankine into the midfield, not only is he clean and efficient with the footy he sees options that only the superbly gifted can. He will up against two of those this week in Pendlebury and Nick Daicos and reckon that will see the Pies prevail in a close one.
The Ripple Effect (79%) vs More Drinks (21%)
The last few weeks has seen the Tsunami reduced to a ripple and will not be helped by the loss of Kelly and Ash. They host the Bulldogs who showed what they and the coach can muster when they are under the pump by destroying the Tigers. This will be a different encounter with the Giants having the defensive personnel to match the Bulldog forwards, do they have the same at the other end to stop Liam Jones? Callum Brown will be missed, but Jesse Hogan is a threat. GWS need to Toby to become a threat again to be the difference and reckon he just might, playing back at home and expect him to react to some of the criticism that has been coming his way.
He’s Not Lyon (64%) vs One for Cam (36%)
What a tough night it was for Freo up against the Swans after learning of the death of former teammate Cam McCarthy. They can give themselves a mulligan for that but will want to make it up against the Saints. They have plenty of making up to do and no mulligan sought or given by the coach. Expect them to play with a bit more dare and enthusiasm, but is it in the coaches DNA to keep that going if it doesn’t come off? While expect St Kilda to be better, the best of the Dockers wins this.
The Grey Matter (99%) vs Dog Food (1%)
Brisbane gets a bit better last when they added a Brain and were able to get a couple of points in Adelaide, they should get the four this week against the Tigers who were simply eaten up by the Bulldogs last week.
The remaining 3 games to come later, along with a few suggestions.
Go Blues,
Cheers, Sal
Greetings Again,
What a performance from the Suns putting paid to the criticism of the footy at the venue. Yes, it’s slippery but if you adapt and play territory you can score. Geelong still managed to kick 15 goals and being only the 3rd game this season where both sides scored a century. The aggregate score of 264 comfortably eclipsing the previous mark of 232.
What about the Cats? Were they arrogant in resting Hawkins, Duncan and Stanley? Maybe it sent the wrong message but doubt any of those three would have made the difference and it is not as if Geelong are not used to giving players a break. It could be just an outlier with the vagaries of the conditions. However they have lost their last three which all coincide with Patrick Dangerfield’s absence.
Now for the rest of this week’s games.
Golden Years (99%) vs Tough Years (1%)
Kanga fans will vent as their team go up against a couple past players in McKay and Goldstein. How important has Goldy been for the Bombers with Draper’s injury challenges? While Ben McKay has won 6 from 9 as a Bomber after 8 from 71 with the Roos. About to be 7 from 10.
Butters Up (98%) vs Weddling Day (2%)
Rozee might have been missing, no issue for Port and Butters and Horne-Francis picked up the slack and took it to the Cats. They get to host the Hawks who have won their last couple and seeing improvement in the younger brigade including Weddle and Watson. The bridge over Port might be a bit too far.
H2O (3%) vs Going Nuts (97%)
Jake Waterman is an important inclusion for the Eagles as they host the Demons. Melbourne welcomes the inclusion of McAdam to the line up to try and provide an extra dimension and option up forward. At home the Eagles will be feisty but he Demons should be too good.
Track Time
Back to HQ this week with a ticket into the Cup part of the prize for the winner of the Andrew Ramsden Stakes. The Group 1 caravan heads north to Brisbane for the running of the Doomben 10,000.
We will leave the babies alone in the opener, but open proceedings with Moveforlex (R2, #12) failed last start but won here prior to that and get a big weight drop. Moor Mumm (R3, #9) was also a winner here last start and get weight relief from the favourite that she beat that day. Elphinstone is not here so Modown (R4, #2) looks a very good chance as does White Bear (R5, #13) after not quite hanging on at Caulfield. Since we like Moveforlex then Heed the Omens (R6, #4) must come into calculations after just going under to him last start. In the same race at longer odds a bit of interest in Yototsu (R6, #15) 3rd up with the breeding to suggest the trip will suit.
The Straight Six is a ripper with great depth, happy to take a throw at the stumps with Joyful Fortune (R7, #1). Been off the scene for 80 weeks but a two-time winner down the straight and now in hands of C Maher. A few more to go in the quaddie. The Adelaide Cup quinella meet again with the Melbourne Cup in mind, reckon the weight swing gives and edge to The Map (R8, #12) but not sure $3 is good betting value. El Soleado (R9, #2) just keeps on running well and gets a bit more room to chase down Dashing (R9, #11). Sticking to the Flemington form in the last with Pondalowie (R10, #7) but certainly wary of a couple of newcomers.
Quaddie
Leg 1 – 1, 4, 5, 6, 7
Leg 2 – 3. 5. 12
Leg 3 – 2, 6, 11
Leg 4 – 1, 7, 10, 11, 12
225 Combinations a $30 investment will return 13.33% of the dividend.
Doomben – Race 8 – Doomben 10,000 (G1, 1200m, WFA)
Named for the prize of £10,000 that the race was elevated to in 1946 suggests the monicker requires updates with the $1M on offer today. I Wish I Win (1) has the credentials and record to be a justified favourite here but would be shopping for better value. We might have it in the other Moody/Coleman runner Chain of Lighting (6) provided it does not get to a bottomless track like last start. Bella Nipotina (5) won’t have an issue in the conditions and the some for Espiona (7) she might need luck from the outside gate, but it could be an advantage by Race 8.
Selections – 1-6-5-7
Friar Time
A terrific day for the club last week with four wins! This week the men host Hawthorn in a battle for a spot in the four, while the reserves will look to consolidate. The Women head to KB reserve against Richmond Centrals who are 7thbut only one game in arrears from the Friars. The 3s kick off the dew at Friar Park against MHSOB in what should be a good test.
Go Blues, Go Friars,
Cheers, Sal
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