NRL Round 27 – Permutations and Combinations (aka Snakes and Ladders)

 

I’ve been plugging the Tom Brock Lecture for the last month. I attended on Tuesday night and it was, undoubtedly, the highlight of the rugby league week! Patrick Skene gave a wonderful presentation on the history of the code in PNG and the path to their 2028 entry into the NRL. It was engaging, entertaining stuff presented in Patrick’s inimitable style. You should be able to watch it on YouTube within a day or two. Do yourself a favour! I’ve written a review of the lecture elsewhere on the site today.

 

Meanwhile, there are still 10 teams who, mathematically, could make the NRL finals which begin next week. Realistically, we can discount the Sea Eagles who need to win by about 80 points and hope that two other results go their way. The Dolphins need to win by about 15 and hope the Roosters to lose to Souths. On current form, neither seems likely, so unless something unforeseen (on a major scale) happens this weekend, we have the final eight teams. But within that eight there could be a bit of snakes and ladders going on.

 

The Raiders are the minor premiers, the Storm will finish second and the Bulldogs will end the minor round in third place. Those positions won’t change but the next five could be anything! Fourth spot, and the double chance, is up for grabs between the Broncos, Sharks and Warriors. The other two will finish fifth and sixth. One way or the other, Penrith and the Roosters will finish seventh and eighth. History suggests that one of the top three will win because, in the present and based on current form, whoever finishes fourth won’t get far. Again, based on history and current form, you can’t totally discount either the Panthers or the Roosters, but winning four finals in consecutive weeks hardly ever happens.

 

Whatever you or I think might happen, the bookies seem pretty set on the idea that the Grand Final will be fought out between the Raiders and the Storm.

 

NRL

Round 26 was a bit all over the shop and yet, when the weekly tipping results appeared in my Inbox on Monday morning, it said that I picked all 8 – and, in fact, I did! I’m now inside the top 50,000 (out of about 470,000). But it didn’t happen without the odd bit of drama. The Bulldogs struggled to beat Penrith’s Reserves, not a good sign with only a fortnight to the finals. I said the Wahs were not worth trusting and they were just that, while the Eels maintained their surge. Another late Bunker call sealed the result and the locals might have felt a bit miffed. Then the Roosters did what I expected (well, what I tipped) but by a much larger margin than I could have imagined. ‘Bellyache’ lived up to his nickname but I think it was probably all a bit tongue in cheek. The Raiders celebrated the presentation of the JJ Giltinan Shield – a great achievement given that many pundits wrote them off badly before the season got underway. The Sea Eagles did what they had to do to theoretically remain in contention, with DCE back to his mesmerising best. The Broncos and Cowboys had one of their old style shootouts with the mercurial Walsh showing why he is just that. But you wouldn’t think Brisbane can go too far with defence like that. The Sharks had a good training run against the Knights, even giving them a head start, but the injury to Trindall will be a worry. Then the Dolphins and Titans played tit for tat before the former held on just long enough to retain a not totally unrealistic chance of playing finals.

 

Round 27 is a tipster’s nightmare and I think I’ll be lucky to get four right this time around. Tonight the Broncos will try to sew up fourth spot on the ladder by doing something they find very difficult – beating the Storm. The latter are close to full strength with the return of Hughes the most important change after resting several players last week. Can the home crowd get the Broncos over the line? I think not because they leak too many points. Go with Melbourne.

 

Tomorrow’s twilight game has the Sea Eagles hosting the Warriors/Wahs/Hyphens. DCE’s last fling and a rollicking Brookvale Oval; the Warriors still hoping for fourth spot (if the Broncos go down tonight). Lots of good ingredients for a great contest. I didn’t trust the Warriors last week, and I don’t think I can this week. Go forth, DCE, one last time to the breaches for a memorable victory on the northern beaches! Manly. Then the grudge match of the round, the old rivals the Roosters and the Rabbitohs in their latest battle for the Book of Feuds. With apologies to my Rabbitohs’ friends Mark and Russel, maybe next year. The Sombrero are in good touch and Sam Walker is back as well. Please save Cameron Murray for next year, don’t risk him in a futile exercise. Get on the Roosters.

 

Saturday afternoon footy starts with the Dragons at home to the Panthers. After a couple losses on the trot, the Panthers will be all aggro as they tune up for a tilt at five in a row. One way traffic, I’m afraid – Panthers. Then the Titans host the Wests Tigers. We all saw some good things from the Titans last weekend while the Tigers couldn’t run with the Raiders. Can Des Hasler go out with a rare win? I think we’d all like to see that. Purely on emotion, I’ll go with the Titans. In the late game, the Sharks should know their fourth place prospects before they run onto the field against the Bulldogs. Regardless, I think the Dogs will be all snarl and growl after their unconvincing win over the Panthers Reserves last time out. That should be enough to get the Bulldogs home over a ‘not enough bite’ Sharks.

 

On Sunday the Dolphins host the below strength Raiders. The Phins will have either everything to play for or just pride at stake. I think they’ll be good enough to win given the undermanned opposition but I’d love to see the situation where they still have a chance to make the eight and simply have to win. Go Dolphins! Finally the Eels play the Knights to whom we said ‘good night’ ages ago. They look so good on paper; what happened this year? By comparison, the Eels are ending the season on a high with great expectations for 2026. It’s good to see Dylan Brown being given a final farewell game before he leaves to join – the Knights! It’ll be Eels all the way.

 

The Cowboys have the bye.

 

NRLW

Round 9 again highlighted the dominance of the Roosters and the Broncos but the injury to Kelly might unbalance the Roosters if she’s out for a while. And, I hate to repeat it, the rest were simply that – the rest. Highlight of the round was the sensational form of Tamika Upton who bagged four tries.

 

Round 10, the penultimate round of the 2025 season starts tomorrow evening with the rampant Roosters playing the rising Raiders in what is the match of the round. Even without the injured Isabelle Kelly, it’s hard to see anything but another Roosters win. But credit to the Raiders who have been among the big improvers this season.

 

Saturday afternoon footy has the Dragons at home to the other big improvers, the Cowboys. The Dragons have been a bit of a disappointment, to be honest, and I can’t see them winning this one. Go with the  Cowboys. Later, the Bulldogs, who got trampled by the Broncos last weekend, play the Sharks who are lumbering towards the finals but are merely making up the numbers. Nevertheless, I’ll go with them again – Sharks.

 

Sunday’s triple header begins with the Warriors taking on those bustling Broncos who carved up the Bulldogs last week. The Horses are finding their best form of the season at the right time and should go on to win this one too. Brisbane comfortably. The second game has the Knights against the Titans, another second tier clash, where I think the Knights will prevail. Finally, the Eels play the Wests Tigers in a lower ladder game where there’s not really a lot at stake. I’ll go with the Eels.

 

 

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