NRL Round 15: Up over the halfway mark

 

 

 

I’ve written in recent weeks about the hazards of tipping during the Origin period of the NRL season. It’s been more like a nightmare, to be honest! Even when clubs get their Origin reps back on deck for a week or so, the uncertainty persists. Here’s an example: Mark Courtney emailed me about two weeks ago to say that he expected my Broncos to rip his Rabbitohs by about 50 when they meet in Round 15. At the time, it seemed a fair comment given their form. Those teams meet this Friday night but the situation is vastly changed. Suddenly, Souths have won their last two games while the Broncos have lost both of theirs. Now it’s anyone’s game. In just two weeks! September is still three months away. How many more convolutions can we expect in that time? What do we think we know now in mid-June?

 

The one apparent certainty is that Penrith will be there in the last couple weeks of the finals. They, more than any other club, appear to have the player depth, the skills and the mental set to meet whatever challenges come their way. Their win over Manly at the weekend reinforced this point. Most of us would put our money on the Roosters being there or thereabouts come September too. Good list, good spine, a few genuine game breakers, experience and a top coach. Pencil them in. Melbourne Storm can never be discounted. They keep winning even when they’re playing some ordinary footy – culture, coach, capability and a wizard named Coates. Cronulla? They’ve bounced back after a few poor weeks, even winning without Hynes. But are you convinced about them yet? But they’re as likely as the next group.

 

On the next line come Brisbane, who suddenly look vulnerable; Manly have character and creativity but no Turbo, probably a fatal blow to genuine premiership hopes; Canberra might be the surprise packet but don’t convince you that they can win several finals matches in a row. The Warriors can turn it on but aren’t consistent; Souths may be about to finally find their mojo but a loss or two in the next 6 weeks will see them too far back to mount a credible charge to September. Newcastle have the talent to feature in the finals but are a bit flaky; the Dolphins have surprised but you’d expect them to run out of legs with their aging pack. The Bulldogs? The dark horse of the comp. Their come-from-behind win over the Eels on Monday was meritorious given the injuries (and sin bin) they had to overcome.

 

The Cowboys, Dragons,Tigers, Eels and Titans (not in that order) – I just cannot see them featuring in the finals. Hunt, Lomax and Sloan aren’t enough to get the Red V there. The Cowboys flatter to deceive. The Eels are too far behind, I think, to make the eight, especially after their loss to the Doggies on Monday. The Titans will be spoilers more than anything. The Tigers look like taking the spoon.

 

The wild card in all of it is that there is only one win separating 6th and 13th places on the ladder.

 

My final four at this stage? Penrith, Melbourne, Cronulla and the Roosters – but hold fire of their finishing order.

 

Round 14 continued to provide us with the uncertainty that makes footy so engrossing. The Dragons looked great – but it was against Wests Tigers, so don’t read too much into it. The Rabbitohs found some form that better befits their roster – but they only beat the Titans. The Warriors were impressive – but they played a side that looked like they’d only met the day before. The Sharks were a tad undermanned but they hog-tied a disappointing Broncos outfit (if you’ll excuse the mangled metaphor). The Storm were well below their best but still racked up 30+ points to hold off a determined Newcastle who lack the knockout punch. The Panthers probably deserved to win by more than they did but showed that their second tier is as good as several clubs’ top list. (Commiserations to Tommy Talau – how many players have scored 4 tries in a match and still ended up on the losing side?)

 

On to Round 15. We start with the Sharks hosting the Dolphins tonight. The Sharks deserve strong favouritism but this is exactly the type of game that they have to win to keep the nay-sayers at bay. Lose this and the question marks will be all over the place again. I can’t see the Dolphins getting away with this one – too much pressure, away from home, the mid-season grind getting to them. Put your hard earned on the Sharks.

 

Tomorrow’s early game has the Raiders up against the Cowboys. I can’t see the Cowboys improving enough to be competitive in Canberra and I think they’ll be frozen out on the scoreboard. Canberra to blitz this one. I’ll be at Accor Stadium with Mark Courtney to see the Rabbitohs host the Broncos. As mentioned above, the dynamic of this game has shifted so much so quickly. The result will depend on C Walker and L Mitchell. With Blues jumpers up for grabs, they’ll be keen to flaunt their talents. If they do, Souths win; if the Broncos can contain those two, then Brisbane wins. Something tells me the home town crowd will be happy come full time. The Rabbitohs to shade the Broncos.

 

Saturday afternoon footy has the Wests Tigers at home to the Titans. There’s little to enthuse about this one! You’d have to say that the Titans are more of a chance, after all they beat Brisbane a fortnight ago. Wests Tigers haven’t beaten anyone for quite a while and don’t look as if they know how to. Nevertheless, this could be the upset of the round but I’ll stick with the Titans. The Warriors are at home to the Storm in the early evening game and this could be a beauty. The Warriors have been going well of late but the Storm keep managing to win somehow. The latter must catch up with them sooner or later. I’ll stick my neck out and go with the Warriors. The Eels v Roosters has the potential to be the match of the round but it’s hard to see Parra making much of an impact after their inability to put the Bulldogs away on Monday after leading by 8. One senses that the Roosters are running into a bit of form and they have so many attacking avenues. The Roosters, comfortably.

 

On Sunday, the competitive Sea Eagles host a slightly fired-up Dragons – this could be a good one too! Manly are hard to topple at Brookie and they have Jurbo still fuming about his treatment on Origin 1. Watch DCE and Brooks guide them around the field to really stretch the Dragons’ defence. Hunt, Lomax and Sloan will be their usual tireless selves but I don’t think it will be enough. Get on Manly. The final game sees the irresistible force that is the Panthers visiting the close-but-not-close-enough Knights. Newcastle have to get close to show that they do have something to build on. A bad loss will consign them to a supporting cast role in the overall competition. Penrith, easily.

 

Team selection for Origin 2 will follow on from Round 15 with all eyes on the composition of the NSW side. Teddy or Edwards? Moses and Mitchell to return? Luai or Walker at No 6? The Maroons to be basically unchanged apart from Kaufusi coming into the 17, with Hammer to play fullback and Cobbo in the centres? Let’s wait and see.

 

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