Grand Final: Sal’s Preview (and some racing tips)

 

 

 

 

Greetings All,

 

It is hard to pick the lens through which to view the horrendous claims being made by young indigenous players and their partners at Hawthorn.  We live in a world where systematic and endemic racism is being exposed regularly.  Huge errors of society around the Stolen Generation have alerted us to some of the bigger issues, but the workings of governments and society have built in challenges for indigenous people and communities that change the playing field by which we all live.  We have marveled for years at the skill and joy indigenous players have brought to the game, but many people are unwilling to accept their expressed opinions.  The backlash on Adam Goodes was extraordinary, Eddie Betts was brilliant on the ground but some bemoan him commentating on his experiences.  They appear to be the lucky ones after reading the story from the ABC, confirmation of any of the allegations would make the positions of Alistair Clarkson and Chris Fagan impossible to hold.

 

As important an issue as it is, the season reaches its crescendo on Saturday.

 

Holmes Coming ($1.53) v Reid About It ($2.86)

 

Just over 10 years ago the Sage from the South and I discussed the plight of the Swans just before that finals series.  He wanted Sydney to introduce the 4th banana on to the Sydney forward line.  Mitch Morton was on the fringe of the team but performing well at the lower level, he finished up being a vital piece of the premiership puzzle kicking two goals in the 2012 Grand Final victory.  The Swans need to find that banana while Geelong have a bunch of them with the likes of Hawkins, Cameron and Rohan being the big bananas with Close and Stengle the “lady fingers”.

 

Sydney have the Franklin, Reid and Heeney as 1, 2, 3 – Papley is the “lady finger” – do they just need one more to be the differentiator.  Or do they rely on the goal scoring prowess of the like of Hayward, Mills and Parker.  The one move we can expect them to make is a tag on Tom Stewart, does Ryan Clarke have the size to cut him down?  They certainly need a lift from Heeney who has been quiet in the series so far.  The Geelong defense does some to have the right coverage with de Koning, Henry and Stewart – but then there are days when Franklin and/or Papley get off the chain.

 

At the other end the match-ups are similar apart from Roaming Jeremy – his forays up the ground to open the forward line and use his kicking prowess and athleticism to create opportunities needs to be cut down.  Dane Rampe might have the legs to go with him but is he more valuable to Sydney as the desperado on the last line of defense?  The Cats will need a greater contribution from Gryan.

 

Each forward line will get their chance dependent on the outcome in the middle.  Dangerfield broke the Lions last week and if he gets off the chain then it will present the Swans a few challenge.  We can be certain Sydney will not allow that, they play tough one-on-one in the middle so this will be a battle.  Built for the likes of Atkins, Selwood, Parker and Rowbottom!  A pair of ex-Saints in Hickey and Stanley will contest the ruck in pure ruck contests Hickey should have an edge, the issue will be what support he has.  Especially if Reid’s contribution is either restricted or non-existent.  While Blicavs gives extra coverage as well a variety of roles.

 

What of the coaches?  Both teams have maintained enough quality on their lists to use their home ground advantage and play in finals regularly but their most recent flags are 2011 and 2012.  Does Chris Scott need this flag to validate his record?  2011 was a gift with both the team he inherited and Malthouse’s ego trip, he has rebuilt the Cats game this year and it looks like a premiers style.  The same question has not been asked of John Longmire but should it.  What is outstanding is what he has done with this young list in two years after finishing 16th in 2020.  The Swans always bring a contest and pressure to the game and capable of delivering premierships.

 

Geelong have rebuilt their game just for this and the Jeremy Cameron factor gives them the edge in this one and expect them to get up by 26 points.  My wish is that Buddy puts on a show, the Bloods get up and I enjoy the victory over a convivial with the sage in his home town on Sunday.

 

Track Time

 

Just to go with the Grand Final we have Group One races over three days.  It all starts with the opening of the night racing season at Moonee Valley on Friday, the Melbourne metro meeting on Saturday goes to Mornington while Rosehill hosts the Golden Rose and then the Underwood Stakes meeting at Sandown on Sunday.

 

Friday – Moonee Valley

 

Race 7 – Moir Stakes (G1, 1000m, WFA)

 

Ciaran Maher has the formula for winning the big MV sprints with a filly in Loving Gaby and sets Coolangatta (12) for this.  Was a bit disappointing last start and is up against both of her conquerors in Rothfire (4) and Zoustyle (5), but happy to take her again looking for improvement 2nd up.  Biggest threat will be GSOB’s Paulele (2) a gun first up, has a win at the Valley and JMac comes down for the steer.  Rothfire (3) must be right in this and The Inferno (1) will be burning up the track if the back markers can run on.

 

Selections – 10-2-3-1

 

Saturday – Rosehill

 

Race 8 – Golden Rose Stakes (G1, 1400m, 3YO SW)

 

The typical challenge when doing Sydney form is predicting how the track will play, currently a Soft (5) but rain to come before the race.  Not sure it matters for a top selection In Secret (16) was terrific last start and the heavy track should not present an issue.  Reckon she has Sydney covered so the main danger is Fast Witness (11) track conditions will not be an issue and looks promising as the new kid on the block.  Godolphin’s other seed Golden Mile (7) is going well and should be in the finish and if the rain really hits then Slipper winner Fireburn (14) come right into calculations.

 

Selections – 16-11-7-14

 

Sunday – Sandown

 

Race 7 – Underwood Stakes (G1, 1800m, WFA)

 

What a field we have for this renewal!  4 of the top 6 in the Cox Plate market contesting this lead up makes it a genuine Group 1 contest even though we only have a field of six.  There is not much between Zaaki (1) and I’m Thunderstruck (2) and leaning to latter for this race – a bit to do with the better value but think he appreciates the big track and this will suit him.  They will need to chase down Mr Brightside (4) who is doing just fine and not beyond an upset.  The 9 furlongs is a test for Alligator Blood (3) and sure he has it do putting Mo’unga (5) to go past him.

 

Selections – 2-1-4-5

 

Quaddie Time

 

We will try and wait till Sunday!

 

Leg 1 – 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 12

Leg 2 – 1, 2, 4

Leg 3 – 5, 8, 9, 11, 12

Leg 4 – 1, 4

 

180 Combinations, $30 Investment returns 16.7% of the dividend.

 

Go the Bloods and Shake Down the Thunder!

 

Cheers, Sal