Finals Week 3 – Sal’s Preview: The Penultimate Week Preview – A Knee Jerk Reaction ( and racing tips as well)

Greetings All,

 

Apart from the rumour mill swirling this week has mostly been about Bont’s knee, Stewart’s foot and Mitch’s hammy.  Great that Luke Parker has recommitted to the Swans, he has embodied the club for years it would not have been right to see him in other colours.  Also that Lachie Neale has recommitted to the Lions.  The current restrictions have made times difficult for some families so the desire to head home made sense, breaking a front-end loaded would have present the league which a few other challenges.  Onto the footy!

 

Beating True ($1.53) vs As it Should be Played? ($2.86)

 

One changed forced on both the Demons and Cats – the loss of Parfitt possibly the more consequential.  Of note replaced with Zach Guthrie as opposed to either Dalhaus or Higgins.  Melbourne have won both encounters this year but Geelong showed they can match them if everything goes right.  This match shapes up that way, everything has to go right for Geelong.  They both set up similarly looking for a spare defender to mop up, we have seen this year the between May and Lever the Demons have the best janitors in the game.  On the other hand Geelong will be without Tom Stewart who leads the cleanup for the Cats.  Would the Dees have been able to storm home in Round 23 if he was playing?.  Geelong have added an extra head to the monster with Ratugolea which could stretch the Demons defense, just doubt that Geelong will play six forwards to make them all accountable.  As always ascendency in the middle will be critical.  The Demon midfield looks better balanced with Viney and Brayshaw who bring a tough defensive edge to their game while the Cats will be looking Cam Guthrie for that role.  By the same token Dangerfield and Selwood have been at this game for a long time and can’t be discounted.  Melbourne’s big advantage will be in the ruck with Gawn and Jackson up against Stanley and whoever.  The two teams play a similar game plan, just think that Melbourne are better and so much more has to go right for the Cats.  The Demons will be dreaming of 64 with a 29 point victory.

 

We have a Problem ($1.44) vs What’s the Point? ($3.25)

 

Well port don’t have a problem cause Dan Houston is usually there to fix it as he notches up game 100.  Their other problem being that Mitch Georgiades has not recover from a hamstring injury, apart from that they are healthy and at home.  The Bulldogs are not quite in the same shape, but they get their chance thanks to the mighty effort of Duryea in denying Charlie Cameron access to the ball in that vital contest.  Their talismanic skipper has been selected but must still be doubtful.  The Bont is a differentiator for the Dogs but not sure having him at 70-80% right helps them.  The return of Stefan Martin does help, how well he can go after such a long layoff will be critical.  Ultimately Port have all the favours including the home ground so Bevo will need a plan as to how to not allow Port to play their style.  He has the midfield weapons to execute even without the Bont, while Port would be pretty happy to match motors with Boak, Wines and co.  As for the other game – plenty has to go for the Dogs and this one might be out of their reach.  Port to progress by 21 points.

 

Track Time

 

It’s back to Flemington for a fantastic card as serious players make their appearances, the boost of the Makybe Diva Stakes to a seven figure has attracted an outstanding line up.  Fine weather all week should provide a fair surface that might get quicker as the day progresses.  Another day to learn a lot with a few on the support card of interest.  In the opener I have been waiting for Coolth (R1, #6) to get back to HQ and the longer trip.  Artorius (R2, #1) and Ingratiating (R3, #2) are both at justifiable short quotes, wary of the two scratched from Sydney that make their way here in Hilal (R2, #7) and Shaquero (R3, #1).   Ayrton (R5, #2)  is another shorty, can we get it beaten?  King Magnus (R5, #8) is in great form as is the pilot B Prebble and looks the best chance.  atched from Sydney for this.

 

Tough for the rest of the program, Bonvicini (R6, #13) has been off the scene for a while but is 2 from 3 fresh and a winner over this journey, worth the speculation.  Zoutori (R7, #1) is going for the hat-trick of Bobbie Lewis’, would be a grand achievement with the weight in a wide open affair.

 

Race 8 – Makybe Diva Stakes (G1, 1600m, WFA)

 

A great renewal of the race to honour the great mare.  Finding the winner a tricky affair in a race loaded with backmarkers, with that the Melbourne Cup favourite Incentivise (6) could get left out in front with a soft lead and sprint away to win.  After that a case can be made for many.  A win over Verry Elleegant is great form so see Mo’unga (10) as next pick.  Then the chasers from the Memsie in Tofane (12), Aegon (9) and Inspirational Girl (13) – they all rattled home well in that event.  Not sure it ends there

 

Selections – 6-10-12-9

 

The last sees a few of stayers progressing reckon Young Werther (6) has more upside than most.  A nasty last leg!

 

Quaddie

 

No choice but to go wide and pray!  Will skinny up the last and hope we are alive to lay off.

 

Leg 1 – 1, 5, 8, 13, 14, 17

Leg 2 – 1, 2, 5, 9, 11

Leg 3 – 3, 6, 9, 10, 12,13

Leg 4 – 2, 4, 6

 

540 Combinations, $30 investment could return 5.55% of the dividend!

 

For the Bride and the Princess – Go Dees

 

Cheers Sal

 

 

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