Finals Week 3 – Sal’s Preview: Expectations becoming Great

 

Greetings All,

 

First of a shameless plug!  The Prince’s bride has become the proprietor of a fantastic homewares store in Malvern, Crate Expectations just off Glenferrie Road, not just bricks and mortar the virtual store at www.crateexpectations.com.au has plenty to offer.  Definitely a girlie store it is also very handy for those who need help with Mother’s Day, Birthday, Anniversary, in fact any gifts where Alice has proven very helpful to this scribe.

 

Have spent the penultimate week of the season in the warmer climes of the Sunshine Coast and quite fitting too with both teams from the area featuring in the finals.  While the season is over for most of the leagues in the country and ‘burbs it has been obvious how AFL is growing in these parts.  From the sports grounds where goal and behind posts are more prevalent than other codes, the welcome signs for the local AFL club on the edge of towns and unfortunately the trucks on the road advertising Collingwood memberships.

 

Then there is the competing focus of the TV stations between the Lions and the Broncos. As expected more focus on the Broncos on nine while seven concentrates more on the Lions.  It has been 6 years since we have had two preliminary finals played at the MCG in what really are the ‘People’s’ finals where club members get greater access than to the Grand Final where so many are allocated to corporate largesse, or more appropriately AFL sanctioned scalping.

 

Let’s take a look at the games this week between the four dominant clubs this century?

 

 

Scott No Problems (75%) vs A Cursory Warning (25%)

 

A great test of the finals bye this one.  Are the well rested and pampered Cats ready for the match hardened Hawks?  Hawthorn have been terrific in their two finals setting the tone early last week through Jai Newcombe who is right up there in the contest for Mr September.  Who goes to quell him for the Cats given they are virtually conceding the ruck contests with Blicavs named as first ruck.  Not really an issue for them as they have relied heavily on the ground to win the footy anyway and Blicavs is effective at ground level.  Meanwhile the Hawks need to look after Smith, Atkins and Holmes.

 

The Cat forwards had their way with an undermanned Brisbane defence two weeks ago, the Hawthorn defence looks much more capable of matching up on the likes of Cameron, Neale and the other Cat forwards.  The Geelong forwards challenge will be to curtail the influence of Amon and Impey driving Hawthorn forward.  At the other end it’s a similar story Geelong have the defenders to cover the Hawk forwards, the nous of Gunston has been a key factor but suspect he will be a focus for Scott with plans in place.  There is always the spectre of Watson or Ginnivan getting off the chain while McDonald has also been dangerous in the finals.

 

Weddle might be the weapon that could be hard to match up on and can be used in many positions.  By the same token Jack Martin might be the same for the Cats, they have had the luxury to get him cherry ripe for finals and is very capable.  It’s a mighty tough one to call but just giving it to Geelong by 3 points – suspect it will be to their advantage if the rain arrives.

 

 

Over the Hill (67%) vs The Defence Rests (33%)

 

The Pies unsurprisingly ruled out Bobby Hill but have released what might be their version of The Lawn Mower.  Ensuring Jordan De Goey was ripe and ready for finals looks to have brought the edge to the Pies they were lacking late in the season.  The Cat attack was too much for the Lion’s defence to handle in the QF, the Pies should be an easier prospect for them to deal with although with Howe returning it probably releases Frampton to lock down Andrews.  Then there is Cox to deal with, might not take a mark but has very few taken against him.

 

At the other end I doubt Moore will be given the freedom or latitude presented by the Crows but still there is an Eric Hipwood sized hole in the Lions forward set up.  They will all need to make the Pie defenders accountable and for Lions to win at least one of Rayner, Cameron or Bailey needs to get off the chain.

 

Ultimately for the Lions to prevail it needs to be through the middle, where they are missing Neale.  It was an issue last week and they accounted for another very strong midfield in the Suns.  The Collingwood midfield has stars and is more balanced.  Looking after Pendlebury and the Daicos brothers is critical but then there is Crisp, McCreery and of course The Lawn Mower.  The Lions have more than enough depth and talent to cover this and will relying on the Ashcroft brothers, Dunkley and McCluggage to win that inside ball and get them moving.  For the Lions to prevail they must win that battle and be able to control the tempo of the game.  Not sure they have all the cattle to do it and picking a Pies victory by 15 points.

 

 

Track Time

 

It’s time to have serious look at races with Group 1 status and what it means.  While there is room for some of the lead up races to the classics having such status the one we have witnessed so far this season are not worthy.  The Winx Stakes was essentially a pipe opener for most of the field as was the Memsie, while Baraqiel won the Moir first up against a pretty average lot.  The main gripe though is for the farcical Makybe Diva Stakes last week.  Despite only six acceptors it was without doubt a group one quality field.  What transpired in the run as Mr Brightside crawled to victory should have had the trainers and jockeys of the other five hauled before the stewards.  According to connections they all ran well and up to expectations, we simply cannot have group one races run with such a lack of intent.  It’s embarrassing to the sport and rips off the punter.  Onto this week with two group one races for decision at Caulfield with the Sir Rupert Clarke and Underwood Stakes along with a handy support card.  While at Randwick we have the Seven Stakes as the main event.

 

It’s a tricky start at the heath open betting affairs in the early part of the program.  Going with a couple currently at each-way prices looking for some value as the favourites appear too skinny.  Prince Eric (R1, #5) is the first of them hitting this second up.  Deep Pleasure (R2, #6) is lightly raced and never been out of the top two, reckon she can continue in that vein.  The Moody-Coleman mare She’s Got Pizzazz (R3, #3) she certainly did have last campaign and is handy first up.  We get a bit tighter in the next with Nadal (R4, #1), Maher has engaged a claiming apprentice, if he can get the ride right he can win this. Sticking with Planet Red (R5, #6) in the Guineas prelude – ran well last start where the winner might just be a star. A few lightly raced fillies step out in the Jim Moloney with the undefeated Vivid Sun (R6, #6) the top pick but wary of the price.

 

 

Race 7 – The Underwood Stakes (G1, 1800m, WFA)

 

With plenty targeting the classics this has the potential to be another farce.  At least a field of twelve should deliver enough pace.  We get to see Sir Delius (9) in Melbourne, has been nothing but impressive at both Australian starts.  The unlucky Caulfield Cup runner up Buckeroo (2) should get the perfect steer from B Shinn and looks the main threat.  Another import in Middle Earth (7) closed well under a big imposte last start and looks much better suited under the WFA scale and reckon Desert Lightning (4) should be able to follow up well from his impressive win last start.

 

Selections – 9-2-7-4

 

 

Race 8 – Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (G1, 1400m, HCP)

 

With his main rivals drawn to the outside this race sets up nicely for Another Wil (1) who should get the run of the race.  Can’t ignore those on the outside Angel Capital (9) who might just be so much better than them anyway and Sepals (16) should be very competitive on the minimum weight.  Not sure how to view Arkansas Kid (5) certainly capable in the field but yet to win over 1400m, rating his stablemate Here to Shock (2) a better chance at the odds.  He should be into for a long way.

 

Selections – 1-9-16-2

 

The Naturalism has a ticket into the Caulfield Cup on offer.  Half Yours (R9, #17) got the scratching to get into the field and looks a great chance but at a skinny price.  Don’t mind the chances of  Future History (R9, #3) a reasonable each-way selection at good odds.  We close out the day with the king’s horse Gilded Water (R10, #8) who gets weight relief after a sound effort last start.

 

Quaddie Time

Leg 1 – 2, 4, 7, 9

Leg 2 – 1, 2, 5, 9, 16

Leg 3 – 3, 17

Leg 4 – 5, 6, 8

 

Go Wil!

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

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