Finals Week 2: Sal’s preview
Greetings All,
Any momentum lost because of the bye was quickly put to rest with a rollicking encounter to open the finals in Brisbane and then followed up three more enthralling encounters.
Gil has delivered his legacy with a monstrous broadcast rights deal awarded to the incumbents, the money will anchor the League for many years. As with any of these deals the devil is in the detail. Il Supremo proudly stated that the same number of matches will be on free-to-air. The issue is that we now will have at least 15 Thursday night matches – sure the networks love them. The diehard fans don’t and struggle to attend with school and work the following day restricting the ability to attend. The other gripe with Thursday nights is the effect it will have at grass roots level. Thursday are the major nights for grassroots clubs to have team selection night and gathering of players to bond and enjoy each other’s company. The dynamics of those nights completely change with an AFL game on at that time. So much for looking after the grass roots game.
On that matter it was good to hear that 10% of funds will be allocated to grassroots, the question is how is that going to work and how will clubs and competitions be able to access those funds? Most importantly what is being done to recruit, retain and compensate umpires – while the campaign to stop abuse is worthy, the number of umpires in the game is falling and without them we just don’t have a game.
As for giving Foxtel their “Super Saturday”, at least it is for only eight rounds but expect it to be the thin edge of the wedge. Saturday night footy has been part of Melbourne for as long as I can remember with Mike Williamson hosting the replay and Football Inquest on Seven and Tim and Drew with The Winners on ABC before we had live coverage. Now that will purely be the domain for those fortunate enough to afford a subscription. Great that government have voiced their concerns about anti-siphoning not being adequate, but they could have stepped in months ago – it was no secret that these negotiations were taking place.
Now for the games:
Broken Leg ($1.32) vs Holding the Fort ($4.00)
Brisbane covered the loss of McInerney brilliantly last week, this week they bring Darcy Fort to carry most of the ruck duties up against Gawn and Jackson. As is the general ask of Brisbane against Melbourne who have beaten them convincingly twice in the last 10 weeks. The one certainty is that Melbourne will do the same if Brisbane turn up with the same faux bravado as last time. Suspect they will have learnt. They have the defense to hold the Demons forwards the key will be getting enough footy to put pressure on at the other end. Melbourne set up their intercept game last week early but Sydney changed their entries bringing the ball in low, fast and ugly and making a scrap on the ground for small forwards to go to work. The Lions have the craft up forward to do the same in Cameron, Bailey and Rayner but they will need Hipwood and Daniher to apply more intensity on May and Lever than they have recently. It is all dependent on getting the ball forward though Lachie Neale can’t do it alone against the trio of Oliver, Petracca and Viney. While I can see the Lions with some hope, the more likely scenario for the Demons to win by 43 points.
Winners ($1.61) vs Something’s Amiss ($2.56)
The Pies gave their all against the Cats last week, reckon a couple deserved a bit of a lie down at the end. The coach was certainly right though in thinking they had done enough to deserver to be in a preliminary final. Alas they are not and need to deal with the Dockers who got off the canvas to overcome the Bulldogs. Fremantle cannot afford to give up a start like that against Collingwood, they will not lie down in a scrap and fight all the way. That is really what this game comes down to – like Brisbane if Freo does everything right they can win – however they just beat the eighth team last week while the Pies just lost to the top team. That form has me with the Pies by 37 points.
Track Time
It’s Makybe Diva Stakes Day at Flemington with a strong card and big fields. A bit of weather about to we can expect a soft track to play on, probably something we need get used with La Nina set to hang around for a few months.
The opener is a beauty with the return of Doull (R1, #6) who won well at his only start, clearly talented but so is the rest of the field. Plenty to learn from this one. As is the next with a couple of cup prospects kicking off their campaign, Adelaide Ace (R2, #14) might represent some value here after closing well last start but it has been a long time since a win. A big field of fillies head down the straight in the 3rd and there might be some value in the undefeated Hellhound (R3, #8). Big step up in grade but draws the outside barrier which might be an advantage. Bermadez (R4, #8) is undefeated fresh and 5 from 7 on soft going.
Race 5 – Makybe Diva Stakes (G1, 1600m, WFA)
A small but quality field greets the judge in this renewal. I’m Thunderstruck (1) was fantastic in the Memsie chasing home Snapdancer, gets to the more favourable Flemington track and out to the mile. Runs to his best he wins. If he doesn’t then it is tough to sort out. The engagement of T Clark on Alligator Blood (4) is no surprise given his regular work with Waterhouse-Bott, suspect it might also have something to do with his ability to control a race from the front. If he gets an easy time up front he will be hard to go past. Cascadian (2) is super consistent and was not far off I’m Thunderstruck (1) last start and Mo’unga (5) was very good in this race last year.
Selections – 1-4-2-5
We get onto the all important quaddie legs where we open up with a staying event and capacity field of 16. Wary of the Maher-Eustace import Interpretation (R6, #4) having his second start in Australia, but there will be plenty more in the quaddie. As there will be in the Let’s Elope which has attracted a ripping field, hoping Flying Mascot (R7, #6) can repeat her last Flemington start. The Bobbie Lewis is a beauty also like the appointment of Blake Shinn on Roheryn (R8, #9), great fresh record but has not been up the straight worth a crack at $20+. We close out with another big field, Foujita San (R9, #11) was a short priced favourite last start but missed the jump and it was all over, happy to follow the spruik from last time.
Quaddie Time
We kicked off the season with a tripod, lets hope that changes for the better. This week is a typical Flemington spring quaddie, big fields and open affairs. We will trim up in the last leg to hold some value – but will be hanging on for dear life in the first three.
Leg 1 – 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11
Leg 2 – 5, 6, 10, 11, 14
Leg 3 – 8, 9, 12, 13, 17
Leg 4 – 6, 11
300 Combinations, $30 Investment returns 10% of the dividend.
Bring on the Thunder!
Cheers, Sal
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About Sal Ciardulli

Love your work Sal. More later.