Finals Week 2 – Sal’s Preview, and tips for Flemington

Greetings All,

 

Early in the year we there was plenty of whining coming from the
non-Victorian clubs and the disadvantages they have. The biggest of course
being the Grand Final at the MCG, Chris Fagan raised a few valid concerns
regarding specific challenges of playing it at the MCG as an interstate
club. But it is all a matter of balance, this year we have four
non-Victorian clubs still in the race for the flag. Geelong and Hawthorn
also hold similar advantages to the other Victorian clubs with a
disproportionate number of ‘genuine’ home games compared to the rest. The
following table shows how many genuine home games each team played and what
the contribution of the points won in those games was to their totals.

 

 

Season			Home Games
Team	Position	Points	Played	W	D	L	Points	Contribution
Syd	1	68	11	9	0	2	36	53%
Port	2	64	11	8	0	3	32	50%
Geel	3	60	9	6	0	3	24	40%
GWS	4	60	11	9	0	2	36	60%
Bris	5	58	11	7	0	4	28	48%
WB	6	56	6	4	0	2	16	29%
Haw	7	56	8	6	0	2	24	43%
Carl	8	52	5	3	0	2	12	23%
Coll	9	52	6	4	0	2	16	31%
Fre	10	50	10	6	1	3	26	52%
Ess	11	46	6	3	0	3	12	26%
StK	12	44	7	4	0	3	16	36%
GC	13	44	11	9	0	2	36	82%
Melb	14	44	5	2	0	3	8	18%
Adel	15	34	11	3	1	7	14	41%
WCE	16	20	10	3	0	7	12	60%
NM	17	12	6	1	0	5	4	33%
Rich	18	8	5	1	0	4	4	50%

For the purpose of the exercise ‘Genuine Home Games’ are defined as follows:

 

* WA and SA teams any game where an interstate club is hosted.
* Syd, GWS, Bris and GC any home game including against cross city
rivals
* Haw and NM hosted games in Tasmania
* Melbourne based clubs any game hosted against non-Melbourne clubs
(including Geelong)
* Geelong any game at Kardinia Park

 

While playing the Grand Final at the MCG is an advantage to Melbourne based
teams it’s a lot easier to get there with your home ground elsewhere. The
top five teams all had at least nine genuine home games with at least 40% of
the points coming from home game wins or draws. All non-Victorian teams had
contributions above 40% with Gold Coast at 82%. Discounting Richmond who
only had two wins, the best Vic team was Hawthorn with 43% but note they get
four home games in Tassie and their eight home games is more than any other
Melbourne club. Then looking at the Grand Finals since 1990 when it became
the AFL interstate clubs have competed in 23 of 32 Grand Finals (discounting
COVID years) and on three of those occasions we had interstate clubs playing
off against each other. Then in the other 19 Grand Finals 9 were won by the
interstate side, acknowledging only one from eight since 2013.

 

So, while there are difficulties for non-Victorian clubs once they get to
the Grand Final – it is much easier for them to get there. Since 2000
(discounting COVID) interstate clubs have been relatively overrepresented 14
times out of 23 in the top eight four and 16 out of 23 for the top eight.
While the recent record once they get to the Grand Final is poor the numbers
show they are only just under 50% for success. Who knows we could even
finish up with a pair of them playing off this year.

 

 

Buttering Up (35%) v Coming Home to Breust (65%)

 

Many a time we have seen well beaten qualifying finalists come back the
following week be too good for the lower ranked team. Can Port repeat it
this week? If they do it will be on the back of their One Wood – the
midfield. They barely got off the tee last week and were cleaned up.
Despite injury Butters has remained in the side because they need their best
possible out there, missing Dan Houston really presents a problem. Up
forward they do not look sharp enough and the backline is treacherous if the
midfield can’t stop supply. On the other side Hawthorn have much to
celebrate and have nothing to lose as they have played most of the season.
In addition, the motivation for finals they also have Luke Breust playing
his 300th game. Last week the Hawks were connected all around the ground
with players running for each other 2-3 kicks ahead of play, expect Port to
have a bit more accountability than the Dogs did but will they have the
pace? Much has been made of the small Hawthorn forwards; their big forwards
play an equally important role. Calsher Dear has enormous presence for a
19-year-old and will jump for everything and while Chol battled last week he
played his role. Down back Frost might be missed, more importantly Port
needs to stop the drive generated by Sicily, Impey and Scrimshaw. Surprised
McEntee didn’t get a role there, but certain Byrne-Jones will. With the
rucks being Sweet and Meek it will come down to midfield and Hawthorn
disposed of one the best last week, they just might do it again this week
and win by 17 points.

 

 

All the Kingsley’s Men (61%) v Big Mac (39%)

 

Adam Kingsley would have loved Toby Bedford last week to shut down Warner in
that last quarter, he is back this week and sure to pester Lachie Neale.
The Lions demolished the Blues early due to the dominance in of Oscar
McInerney in the ruck, he plays his 150th game and has become such an
important player for the Lions. Kieren Briggs has done the same for the
Giants, that contest will be critical. How much does the Giants victory at
the Gabba a few weeks ago mean? It makes this game on GWS home turf is one
thing as it cost Brisbane a top four finish. It will also give them the
confidence that they match up well against the Lions. Critically the
backline does. Up forward they need to stop Harris Andrews from
intercepting and not give Dayne Zorko free reign. Expect skipper and agent
provocateur Toby Greens to try and disrupt his focus. It is an even match
up with the winner hard to choose, but as the stats say home ground is an
advantage and picking GWS by 25 points.

 

 

Track Time

 

What a great meeting we have for the first Group One at Flemington for the
season. Very tough to find winners, but important to watch as I am sure
there will be winners from this meeting in the weeks to follow. Always a
question at this time as to whether the topliners can fire fresh or those a
rung below with fitness on their side prevail.

 

Flemington

 

The opener is such a race Sparkling (R1, #16) is fit and in form, keen to
see how Nadal (R1, #4) and Wolfy (R1, #11) go off good trials. The Exford
is a real watch and learn for the 3YOs especially with Sydney form joining
in, perhaps one of those in Dawn Service (R2, #5) might represent good
value. The sprinting fillies contest the Cap d’Antibes and Bold Bastille
(R3, #4) was not too far away from Mornington Glory last start and is a
winner here. It’s the boys turn in the Poseidon but no need to be
adventurous. Growing Empire (R4, #1) was a strong winner of the Macneil will
take something special to beat him.

 

 

Race 5 – The Archer (G3, 2500m, HCP)

 

The old Hotham Hcp has been shifted here from Derby Day and provides a
ticket into the Melbourne Cup for the winner, as a result a more than
interesting field lines up. Vow and Declare (1) made a handy return after a
successful trip to Queensland, more than capable especially if it stays dry.
Berkshire Breeze (6) just went under to Horrifying (3) in a shocking result
for punters last start, meets him on better terms and has a very good record
here, his conqueror seems to have found a new lease of life under Lindsay
Smith going for a hattrick. As is Dashing Duchess (7).

 

Selections – 3-6-7-1

 

We celebrate the life of Black Caviar in the sixth over 1400m, which she
only did once in her fabled career. Unlike the races she competed in this
is wide open, Holymanz (R6, #5) is a winner here and is well drawn so might
be worth a shekel. The mares kick off the Quaddie in a tough race but like
the 4YO entering this grade and Legacies (R7, #14) has a good record here
and over the trip.

 

 

Race 8 – Makybe Diva Stakes (G1, 1600m, WFA)

 

What a ripping field we have for this race. The punters got it right
shunning Pride of Jenni (6) last start, she has never won first up, her
second up record is very good. She will undoubtedly lead the field up; can
she break them like she did in the Queen Elizabeth? Doubt the two chasers
Mr Brightside (1) and Via Sistina (8) that day will allow her to get away
that far but that could also break them. Willo and JMac will need to get
their tactics right. Can’t discount the Memsie winner Pinstriped (2) who
get around here well as does the other Waller mare Atishu (7). The
Queenslander Antino (4) has a great second up record but might be just short
of this lot. Sticking with Jenni!

 

Selections – 6-8-1-2

 

Spacewalk (R9, #5) is a straight track specialist as are a few others in
this but like the wide draw also. A tough close to the day with no
standout, giving the plus sign to Positivity (R10, #11) after a sound return
in the Heatherlie

 

 

Quaddie

Leg 1 – 1, 3, 7, 10, 14

Leg 2 – 1, 2, 6, 8

Leg 3 – 2, 4, 5, 9, 11

Leg 4 – 4, 11, 12

300 Combinations, Investment $30, Return of Dividend 10%

Go Jenni!

Cheers, Sal

—

Sal Ciardulli

 

 

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