Greetings All,
Back on home soil and almost got everything sorted from the trip. Gives little time to follow the footy with the same fervour but the internet is a wonderful although occasionally over there I preferred it wasn’t with the Blues fade away after our departure.
All is Sweet (83%) vs Make it Close (17%)
The Port line up looks a little different to those we were seeing at the end of June and things have worked for them, with their form being very good coming into finals. They have won their last six with the last five being solid opposition. Jordon Sweet appears to have got their ruck situation sorted giving, a good leg up to the already strong midfield. Their opponent Geelong is four from their last five with some confusing results beating Freo in Perth but then losing to the Saints and the final round can be completely discounted. For the Cats to win their points of difference in Close (playing his 100th), Stengle and Miers need to get off the chain and hurt Port on rebound. Just think Port have the more consistent form (and better than 2023) to be the selection by 17 points.
Speaking English (64) vs Light of Day (36%)
Just by the numbers and results the Hawks have become a different team with the inclusion of Will Day, he will not be there against the Dogs although I am sure the collective form will have lifted the rest of the team’s confidence. He will be missed against the depth and strength of the Bulldog midfield, how Meek fares against English being crucial. They have been successful with their relentless attack kicking high scores, by the same token extremely miserly in their last three games against lowly and depleted opponents. Bevo will need strategy to constrain them, especially looking after the small clever Hawk forwards. If they can win in the middle and get the game on their own terms the big forwards should get enough supply to win. Having Bontempelli among those midfielders is handy and should consume Nash. While going for the Dogs, I don’t expect a close game either way and margin being 38 points.
East (67%) vs West (33%)
While the venue is right it is a shame that Sydney does not have a venue that can cater for a larger AFL crowd, this will be a bigger issue in the next two weeks when a final will be at the Showgrounds. The Swans have the SCG in their favour and have won their last three over the Giants since a Toby special beat them early in 2023, however their form is a concern. Won their last two as they should have, losing easily to co-finalists and scraping in over the Pies is a worry. The returns of Papley, McInerney, McCartin and Heeney will be important, but their big forwards in McDonald and Amartey will need to step up in a big game. The Giants don’t quite a mulligan for the last game as it was important for position, but it was played in tough conditions in Ballarat. Prior to that they were humming, the win at the Gabba giving them confidence that they can win in a hostile environment. They will be sweating on whether Bedford can come up as some will need to look after Warner, but they will get Daniels back who is so clever up forward. Rating their form better and have doubts about Sydney’s tall forward so predicting the Giants by 14 points.
Will it be Payne (89%) vs Going the Dochta (11%)
Payne and Reville got through the VFL last week do they come into the Brisbane line up and if so, who goes out? Suspect Payne’s inclusion could be influenced by the Blues selections. While the Lions are the best performed team since the bye, two losses in the last three games have cost them a top four finish. Otherwise they look to have good balance across the team and look hard to beat at home. Some call this a free hit for the Blues after the injuries they have accumulated at the back end of the season, free hit usually means a smashing so hoping the attitude is more Bulldogs 2016. They stumbled into the finals on the back of injuries and poor form, but the pre-finals bye served them well and some of their best returned and four weeks later they held the cup aloft. The Blues will get few players back but certainly hope they persist with a few of the younger players used in the last two rounds, the coaching group should have learnt a lot. Especially around players carrying injuries, Charlie Curnow’s was bad well before the Hawthorn game. The big one back is Sam Docherty from a knee reconstruction in Round One, I suspect there might be more than desperation in this one. McKay, McGovern and Williams will certainly shore things up. De Koning in would be a bonus and reckon they could cause an upset, but doubt there will be two on the day and the Lions to eventually run out winners by 31 points.
Track Time
It’s not easy to follow footy in Europe, even tougher on the horses but have only missed a couple of main lead up meetings. Those meetings continue this week with Moonee Valley holding the only Group One for the weekend.
Race 9 – Moir Stakes (G1, 1000m WFA)
The chute at the Valley usually gives everyone a chance so happy to be on Estriella (6). She was outstanding earlier in the year and could be a bit special. The concern being that M Zahra has divorced here and gone on to Johnny Rocker (3) and would love to know why. They are all fresh bar one and he is undefeated here in Mornington Glory (2) so thinking a bit of extra fitness might help. Then we have the new girls on the block with the winners of the Golden Slipper and Blue Diamond in Lady of Camelot (8) and Hayasugi (9), putting the latter just ahead mainly due to the left-handed track. Also wary of I Wish I Win (1) yet to win over this distance.
Selections – 6-3-9-8
Quaddie
Not quite up to looking at the full card but always keen to get that elusive beast!
Leg 1 – 2, 3, 5, 6
Leg 2 – 1, 2, 4
Leg 3 – 1, 3, 6, 8, 9
Leg 4 – 6, 10
120 Combinations, Investment $30, Return of Dividend 25%
Go Blues,
Cheers, Sal
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Welcome home, Sal, and thanks for the tour guide of Europe – fascinating in content and excellent in the detail! Let’s see if being closer to the event makes any difference to your tipping accuracy.