Greetings All,
The pre-finals bye is done and it’s about to get serious! The Dill is comfortable with the bye before finals, but he is really just spouting the company line as he is also comfortable with Mr Dogg. The break has certainly assisted a number of the competing teams in getting a few players rested and recovered for the September campaign. The issue is that ultimately we will see a player concussed in a Preliminary Final and ruled out of the Grand Final, it might not be 2025 but it will happen. They should get on the front foot and move the break to before the Grand Final.
With such an even season among the finalists any of them are capable of going all the way and this week it is easy to see most of the games going either way.
Bigger than Texas (69%) vs McStay McGone (31%)
Picked the Pies for the previous encounter against the Crows citing their success on the road and appetite for a ‘Backs to the Wall’ narrative. They came up just short in that encounter but there are a few changes that have occurred since. Undoubtedly the most significant being Izak Rankine out of the Adelaide line-up. Jordan De Goey did not play in the previous encounter but showed great signs in the game against Melbourne and has another two weeks of training under his belt. He might not quite be ‘Tiger’ Crosswell in finals but he has a very good record.
It is in his area where the Pies have to win this contest. They look shaky at both ends of the ground especially with Howe missing from defence and Mason Cox replacing Dan McStay to try and solve the forward line issues. They locked up the game in the last encounter and kept it tight and probably need to do that again. If the Crows can get the game played on the outside Collingwood will struggle to match their speed. While De Goey is an addition the Pies are ultimately unlocked by Pendlebury and/or Nick Daicos. How the Crows manage that pair will be critical, they were both let loose last encounter but suspect there will be a greater investment in them this time. Neal-Bullen may go to Nick as he has before for the Demons. Does Pendlebury go behind the ball to calm and control the defence, if so a defensive forward will be needed.
For the Crows ‘Tex’ Walker plays game 300, he has thrived this year playing 3rd banana behind Thilthorpe and Fogarty. How will the Pie defence match up? Frampton has to go to the Thriller, with Moore and Maynard likely to take the other two. Maynard looks undersized but a great competitor, Moore prefers to support rather than beat his man – that may become an issue.
Ultimately the previous encounter showed Collingwood can keep it tight, the Crows are missing their key player to unlock the game while Collingwood have gained a potential game breaker. Unless the Crows can get the game played on their terms, I suspect the Pies can do another interstate ‘Smash ‘n Grab’ raid to win by 10 points.
Shannon (68%) vs Lachlan (32%)
The Neales will be important inclusions for both Geelong and Brisbane. Shannon has been a great target for the Cats in recent times and Lachie gives the Brisbane midfield yet another boost. The challenge with this game is assessing the Cats. They have come into the finals playing off Broadway but nevertheless completing the tasks at hand with a minimum of fuss and, as importantly, a minimum of injury. Can they get to finals intensity without any serious challenge for weeks? It’s a picture of calm from the Cattery and they approach with confidence.
By comparison the Lions have been at the other end of the spectrum, playing four finalists in the last five and losing to the Swans in the other. Plus not faring well on the injury front. Jarrod Berry also returns this week however Eric Hipwood remains sidelined. Eric has plenty of detractors but he plays an important role and takes up the best defender allowing Logan Morris more latitude to create havoc. He struggled against Hawthorn getting the best defender and more attention.
Brisbane has the midfield and defensive runners capable of getting control of the game and if they do I suspect they win. Geelong will do everything to not allow that to happen and look to have the defence capable of handling Morris and Cameron. They will also need to keep Rayner and Bailey in check but suspect they can here and get home by 21 points.
The Kingsley’s Gambit (57%) vs First of Four (43%)
Sam Mitchell was quick to quip that his team needed to win four games to win the flag instead of three after the loss to Brisbane, can they actually do it? Getting past the Giants is challenge number one, a bit tougher with the possible returns of Hogan, Stringer, Kelly, Daniel and Coniglio. They do get a hand up with Josh Weddle likely to be an inclusion.
The game itself should be a beauty with both teams keen to move the ball swiftly from end to end. Which team can slow that movement down and shutdown the opposition forwards is the likely winner. The Hawks’ defence looks up to the task especially if Hogan and/or Stringer are not quite right, but there is still Brown, Cadman and Toby Greene to contend with. At the other end GWS would have loved to get Buckley back, but would be happy to have Aleer, Taylor and Himmelberg to control the talls. They would not want to sacrifice the dash and carry they get from Whitfield and Ash just to counter the Hawk talls.
As usual it will all come down to the mids and just think the Giants bat deeper here. Tom Green has been the best contested ball winner in the competition and has so many running mates to help out. If Weddle is up to it he is a counter weapon, but who they really need is Will Day. The Meek-Briggs battle is also critical, the Giants have struggled when Briggs is beaten. Not sure he will be and while it could be close a blow out, would not surprise if one team gets on top early. Suspect it will be the Giants by 38 points.
Fyfe (74%) vs Swallow (26%)
Nat and David are both likely substitutes in this game, for one of them it will be their last! It’s great that Dimma has honoured David Swallow choosing him to play in the Suns first final. He has been through so much with the fledgling club, does it give them their best chance to win? Given the likelihood of wet conditions for the game it is probably reasonable. Suspect the Suns may have achieved their goal for the season while Fremantle has bigger fish to fry.
Gold Coast is certainly capable of winning, their midfield with Rowell, Anderson and Miller are as good as any. Humphrey might not be as prolific but can be explosive and hard to keep quiet. Freo’s middle goes OK also, especially at home. But expect it is at either end where they have the edge. The Suns are not quite the finished product in defense and attack while the Dockers have Pearce, Cox and Ryan at one end plus Treacy, Voss and Amiss at the other. Throw Luke Jackson in the mix and think they will see the Suns season set and win by 42 points.
Track Time
Group One racing has returned to Melbourne as we look to see who might take out the classics later in the spring. It all began at Caulfield last week where Treasure the Moment stole the show with a commanding win in the Memsie. Could she be a challenge to Via Sistina for the Cox Plate? It is the penultimate Saturday meeting at Moonee Valley before it is reconfigured. The Moir is the feature with a handy support card to preview.
Moonee Valley
Still learning about the 3YOs in the first but note that Godfred Kirk (R1,#2) was well supported last start but never got a crack. More of a watch and learn race – as is the next for the mares. Not sure what to make of Dragoon (R3,#5) who failed to fire last start, calling it a mulligan. D Lane engaged and his best is good enough. Good luck in the 4th, an absolute raffle. The Chatauqua sees the return of Angel Capital (R5, #3) a handy field but his best wins this. Planet Red (R6, #6) has me star gazing. Undefeated from two starts, goes up in grade, Zahra stays on. Worth a look!
The filles kick off the Quaddie with Esha (R7, #7) taking her place here in the Atlantic Jewel rather than the Moir where she was an emergency. If they were thinking the Moir, then she should be too good here. The Cup Winner returns in the So You Think – this will be too short for Knight’s Choice (R8, #1) and a tough leg of the quaddie where we will be a bit wider.
Race 9 – Moir Stakes (G1, 1000m, WFA)
It’s a quality and capacity field for the Moir with Esha (16 EM1) not quite in the field – but if she gets in the top pick. Her last start win here was outstanding! Otherwise it’s hard to split Baraqiel (7), Skybird (11) and Niance (14). The better price has Skybird (11) on top. She blitzed the field first up in the Lighting over the same distance in February and has won at the track. Baraqiel (7) is undefeated here so just ahead of Niance (14) who might be the best of them but is having her first start here. The Kiwi Alabama Lass (12) has crossed the ditch and won here and respect for Rothfire (1) who looks well suited here at WFA.
Selections – 16-11-7-14-12-1
Niance might not get the Group One for G Begg, but expect King Zephyr (R10, #3) to salute in the last. He returns after being a winning machine early in the year.
Quaddie
Two Quaddies – one if Esha runs in the Moir, one if she runs in the Atlantic Jewel
Esha in the Moir
Leg 1 – 1, 2, 5, 8, 14
Leg 2 – 2, 4, 6, 8, 13
Leg 3 – 7, 11, 14, 16
Leg 4 – 3
100 Combinations, $30 investment, returns 33.3% of the dividend
Esha in the Atlantic Jewel
Leg 1 – 7
Leg 2 – 2, 4, 6, 8, 13
Leg 3 – 1, 11, 12, 14, 16,
Leg 4 – 1, 3
50 Combinations, $30 investment, returns 66.7% of the dividend.
Go Esha,
Cheers, Sal
To return to our Footy Almanac home page click HERE.
Our writers are independent contributors. The opinions expressed in their articles are their own. They are not the views, nor do they reflect the views, of Malarkey Publications.
Do you enjoy the Almanac concept?
And want to ensure it continues in its current form, and better? To help things keep ticking over please consider making your own contribution.
Become an Almanac (annual) member – click HERE.
Minor error-Sal De Goey played against the Crows last time they met