Final day preview: Now the Carnival is over

Greetings All for the final time this year,


Will go into recess after this weekend although we might find time for a Christmas issue!  I hope you have enjoyed this diatribe throughout the year and well done to anyone who has managed to snare a winner or two out of the musings in the last couple of weeks.


While carnivale shuts down tomorrow the most important sporting event for Australia takes place in Central America with the Socceroos taking on Honduras in the first leg in their last chance to qualify for the World Cup.  It will be a brutal game to be played in oppressive conditions with a hostile audience.  I reckon they can stand up to the task well and hopefully at least get one vital away goal before the return leg next week.  Those last 20 minutes will be telling where they have wilted in the last few games played in tropical conditions.


The Tigers breaking their 37 year drought it should have been a sign that an international runner would break the drought of horses without a local run winning.  A superb ride by Corey Brown on Rekindling who has nothing but upside from here.  Beating the handicapper though is starting to be a pattern with the last three winners all being down in the weights Rekindling, Almandin and Prince of Penzance.  Picking the winner was tough this year it promises to be tougher next year!


The ATC in Sydney seemed to have attended the AFL school of marketing and media deciding Cup Day was the ideal time to announce an increase in prize money for the Everest.  Just don’t quite get why there is the pissing match and it won’t end well if it just becomes all about the prizemoney.


Tuesdays selections went OK just missing the Quaddie by a long neck, we did find two trifectas and quinellas amongst the top four selections but only one outright winner in Odeon.  Oaks Day was pretty ordinary and was pretty much driven to Pinot.


This week we have two big Group 1 events and a smattering of other group races for decision.


Race 1 – Maribynong Plate (G3, 1000m, 2yo SW)


Already vented about early two year old races having group status.  Bionics (1) was good behind Tsetsuna at Moonee Valley and then won here very well on Tuesday.  Snowdens don’t bring them down for a holiday either so think King (6) will be thereabouts, Grand Challenge (2) came third in that Moonee Valley race.  Godolphin usually have a good one so Encryption (4) might have the key.  Grab a beer or bubbles and look on – as I should have on Tuesday.


Selections – 1-6-2-4


Race 5 – Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G3, 2600m, HCP)


The protagonists from the Bendigo meet here with Kiwia (3) against Qewy (1) 1kg better off for 0.2length defeat – I think he can turn the tables.  However, I think his stablemate Gallic Cheiftain (6) can get past both of them and turn the tables on the Geelong Cup winner Vengeur Masque (4) in the process.  In between them Wheal Leisure (10) will appreciate Flemington and run well in a very good renewal of The Lizzie.


Selections – 6-3-1-10


Race 6 – Matriarch Stakes (G2, 2000m, 4yo+ Mares SWP)


Always a good race the Matriarch and this edition is no exception.  Winning form is good form, Falika (6) and Tahanee (7) are both coming off good wins.  Falika (6) might have a bit more brilliance but will need a good steer as the inside might not be favourable by race 34 of the carnival.  Prompt Response (2) ran well in the Myer and this is a step down and if they can run on I expect a better showing from Consommateur (4).


Selections – 6-7-2-4


Race 7 – Darley Classic (G1, 1200m, WFA)


The big sprint has attracted a crack field with a number of these coming off their efforts in The Everest.  Very hard to go past the winner of that race in Redzel (2) – he has a win down the straight and makes his own luck.  If Vega Magic (3) gets on the right part of the track he is a threat.  As are Chautauqua (1) and Malaguerra (5), they have both drawn the outside and expect that will be a favoured alley.  Still leaving out proven straight performers Terra Vista (4) and Redkirk Warrior (7), only the barrier has me leaving out In Her Time (12).  What a field?  What a race?


Selections – 2-3-5-1


Race 8 – LKS McKinnon Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA)


Great move putting the McKinnon on final day one all the cup horses bypassed it on Derby Day.  Only three Cox Plate combatants taking this on including the 3rd placegetter Folkswood (7) which has to be good form for this.  However there is an X Factor or two in this.  The first is the presence of the 3yo Cliff’s Edge (10) who has shown he is a tough on pacer and has dodged the Derby for this, we saw Shoals in the Myer display the weight advantage the juveniles have.  The other is the NZer Gingernuts (10) whose program was thrown into disarray by some bad weather at home forcing him to miss a run.  Putting in Tosen Stardom (4) for the last hole, but plenty more with aspirations – suspect we might get Tom Melbourne (6) up for second!


Selections – 15-10-7-4


Quaddie Time


We’ll keep the strategy going and stay skinny at the end, cause the first three are nasty.


Leg 1 – 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 10

Leg 2 – 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 12

Leg 3 – 3, 4, 7, 10, 15

Leg 4 – 4, 9


Let’s go for 10% which cast $36 with 360 combinations


Go the Socceroos, have a great summer!


Cheers, Sal

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