On a wet and windy day in Christchurch, NZ, we take a look at the beleaguered Blue-baggers for season 2026. (Gee, I just love alliteration!)
List:
It all emerged that our pre-season misgivings regarding the Carlton list were correct. They were too old and too slow, but not where most of the on-season focus was. Whereas everyone was focusing on their lack of performing key forwards, the hard evidence indicated that with the loss of Newman through injury, and Docherty playing up-field on a wing, all the pressure went onto Saad to provide the backline rebounds. Of course, the other clubs realised this quickly and Saad got crunched, weekly. Consequently, the ball came out of the backline slowly, and the forwards would all be covered consistently.
Last season, Carlton fell out of the finals. This year, a quarter of the list – 11 players – have been changed over. So time – usually 6 months – is needed for these players to settle in. Ainsworth, Florent, Hayward and Reidy are good players. Personally, I reckon Reidy might even be the Darcy Fort or Jordan Sweet of 2026. Another ruckman without opportunity at his original club, making a big breakthrough at his new club.
Sure, they haven’t drafted that many juniors, but they have previously. The quality of those juniors is largely yet to be seen, although Ollie Hollands, O’Farrell, and Cowan have shown patches. The problem is that Carlton need young running defenders now, but these take 50 games to develop – a Catch-22. If you want success now, you don’t have time to spend developing juniors. And, vice-versa, if you want to develop juniors, you must forego short term success.
Who knows!? Carlton may end up shocking us all with a Richmond-like premiership from nowhere, al-a 2016 to 2017 – or maybe not.
Select 23:
Firstly, I’ve noted the long-term injury to O’Farrell (LTI), guessing he’ll still be out for quite a while. When fit, O’Farrell should return to CHB, where he had an excellent debut last season, before injury. The core players fall into their regular positions. The new mature and developing traded-in players will immediately fill in many of the gaps. Although, I’m worried that their 1st ruckman, Pittonet, played only 7 games last year, their first rover, Walsh, only played 14 games, and their, now, only key forward, McKay, played 12 games.
However, I do hope, for their sake only, that they go with only one key forward, McKay, at high half forward (the old CHF), and mass small and medium mosquitoes around him, like Richmond did around Riewoldt in 2017.
The rest will be based on how much drive their midfield and rebounding back half can give.
One guesses that the not-so-mighty Bluebaggers may need all their luck in a big hit this season.
Carlton 2026 selected 23:
B: Saad, Weitering, Dean
HB: O.Hollands, Haynes, Florent
C: Cerra, Hewett, Acres
HF: Evans, McKay, Hayward
F: Fogarty, Kemp, Ainsworth
R: Pittonet, Cripps, Walsh
I: Reidy, Moir, Williams, Motlop, Chesser
LTI: O’Farrell – otherwise, he’d be at CHB.
You can follow all my list updates as they become available at https://www.ozfootylistmanager.com/2026-lists-new.html
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About
It was 25 years ago that I began developing a model for analysing footy squad lists for the purpose of improving those lists into a premiership window. Since then, the model has been used to successfully predict premiership clubs and to improve either lop-sided or underdeveloped lists into premiership lists. Indeed, the model was used for an article that I had published as a double page spread in The Age 2005 Pre-Season magazine. Over the 25 years, I have analysed the annual lists of one particular club but have used it for other clubs upon request. It has always been on my bucket list to display the lists of all the clubs, using the model, which I've done since 2021 on my website - OzFootyListManager.com
In 2023 the defence included Cincotta, McGovern, Docherty and Kemp. Two have gone, 1 (McGovern) will have to earn his way back into the team and Kemp looks likely to be playing forward.
They do need some zip off half-back. I agree with your point. Maybe Zac Williams could go back to playing in defence? (but I guess it is asking a lot of an oldish footballer). Cowan and McGovern didn’t make your team list. That seems to imply there is pressure on them as established players. What about Jagga Smith?
The big question mark for me is Pittonet. You would hope he could produce more than what he has so far. Darcy Fort, a relative no-name, produced big results in the GF for Brisbane. 45 hitouts!! I like to see ruckmen contributing if they make the team. Carlton cannot afford to carry one ruckman. Their team just isn’t strong enough.
Hi Miles,
Thank you for your comment.
In 2023, when Carlton finished 5th, its defence was led by Weitering, Saad, Newman, Docherty, McGovern, Kemp and Young.
In 2024, Weitering Saad, McGovern, Kemp, Young, Boyd and Kemp led the defence, as Docherty was out injured for nearly all the season.
Last season, 2025, Weitering, Saad, Cowan, McGovern, O.Hollands, Haynes, Silvagni, were the core players in defence.
Regarding McGovern, IMO an overrated defender, his intercepting ouput averages:
2023: 22 games, 5.86 – https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/tr-carlton-blues?year=2023&rt=TA&pt=&st=IT&mg=1
2024: 18, 5.5
2025: 17. 4.06
And, even in 2023, there were others well above him.
It does take time to rebuild a defence. I’d be looking at your future defenders – Dean, the Camporeales – and putting 50 games into them.
Jagga Smith – yes, I should have mentioned him. Last season’s injury was heartbreaking for him and me. As a junior, he was one of my favourites. I wanted him to be Richmond’s first choice in the 2024 Nov draft, with Josh Smillie after.
A fully fit Jagga Smith would almost jump into Carlton’s first roving position. After his injury, in this recovery season, a running back position may suit him.
Pittonet’s continual injuries are a worry. When fit he is capable and was better than De Konning. But Reidy is a good acquisition and I believe is ready to play 1st ruck if Pittonet needs a rest.
Hi Micky,
I agree with your points on McGovern. Thanks for your analysis.
It does paint a demoralising picture when you mentioned they need to get 50 games into Dean & others…as by then the core players of this generation are coming to the end, which is a massive shame. But that is football with 18, 19, 20 teams…. if you make one too many mistakes with drafting/trading then you are back in the pack and in a long rebuild (unless your team is Geelong or Sydney as they never seem to rebuild). 20 years at the top.
A two ruckmen combination should only be utilised if they both contribute something. If you look at Carlton’s win/loss ratio with a half fit Pittonet in the team, it isn’t great. Using a hybrid ruckman and one proper ruckman is a better option if you are carrying one player. I know they say you can carry two ruckmen now that there is no sub rule, but I think you need an output from both ruckmen if you want to play that card.
Post-Script on Carlton.
Who would have believed that Jagga’s first game back would get him 37 disps and a goal?
In the last week, there has been great news at Carlton.
Jagga is back!
Then, they draft the rejected Derksen, and he ends up the perfect replacement for O’Farrell at CHB.
Then, Elijah Hollands turns 180 degrees and becomes a team player.
I’m not necessarily a Carlton fan, but I do love Jagga Smith and wish, as I posted in 2024, he had been drafted by the Tiges.
Who knows, maybe Carlton are having all their luck this season and will turn things around.