Are the planets realigning?

Greetings All,

Another week goes by and it becomes clearer that the world of football maybe spinning on another axis.  The dominance of the interstate clubs is one thing, but on the other football front the Hammers are back in the EPL.  Now where to get enough cash to spend more than Manchester City?  A hectic week in Hobart and the sage on a trek to the nation’s capital has left my usual pontifications bare this week so it is straight into the review and selections.

Last week’s selections were under par again, the coin came up on the wrong side for Geelong – Collingwood but a couple of other results hurt.  Let down by the absence of Shinboner spirit – is there a bigger myth in the game?  Meanwhile the other great myth about the Blues readiness was also shattered by a very good Adelaide outfit, I did suggest they represented value – unfortunately most Blues opponents will in the coming weeks.


But onto Round 9 and an interesting one at that with a few “inter-divisional” match ups.

Been Troppo ($5.80) vs How many more Lives ($1.20)

The Dogs went troppo last week and have only a six day break, they may not have played against the best opposition but those conditions are draining.  Meanwhile the premiers continue to stumble through the season and still find themselves outside the top eight, I reckon they might have a couple of lives left.  They are missing key players who provide the missing leg speed in the team, however it won’t be that much of an issue this week and Scarlett back won’t hurt either.  Cats to get back over the 50% mark against a team that I suspect will be dog-tired.


A Fine Mess ($3.75) vs Premiership Favourites ($1.36)

Hmmm – the last time the Tiges reigned over the Hawks resulted in the vanquished going onto win its next five games to claim the title.  This encounter is a litmus test for both teams.  The Hawks did as expected and punished Freo’s inability to score, whereas Richmond played some great footy against Essendon but could not sustain it.  It will be a sterner test for Hawthorn this week and Richmond will be keen for a 4 quarter effort against a vaunted foe.  Interesting that Richmond have selected both Vickery and Friar Ben Griffiths potentially looking to exploit the perceived aerial deficiencies in the Hawk defense.  In my opinion though the attacking options Hawthorn have will overcome the Tiggers and maybe go on to a similar result as in 2008.


Broadbeach ($2.78) vs Primed Again ($1.55)

A game worthy of only one line – however a couple of notable items.  The Suns did record their first win over the Power, but on the other hand they are returning off a Darwin trip.  With that in mind I think that Port will balance the ledger in their record against the Suns – however given the flaky nature of the favourite the price on offer for the Gold Coast is appetising.


Gwilt-edged ($2.00) vs Blood-stained Angels ($1.98)

These two have turned on some turgid affairs in the Loungeroom over the last few years, however the common theme for most of them is that Sydney doesn’t often win.  In fact, discounting last year’s elimination final the last Swannies victory over St Kilda at the venue was back in Round 1, 2000.  Tim Watson’s first game as coach and only Lenny Hayes and Adam Goodes remain on the arena since then.  But they did win the last encounter and incidentally Get Stuffed Lyon’s final game as St Kilda coach.  It looks to me that the Saints are trying to play a more fluent game, but can’t quite get rid of all of the habits from the previous coach.  I can’t take any notice of Sydney’s form last week and as a result will be selecting the Saints in a real toss of the coin affair.


Champagne Sippers ($1.51) vs Jolly Good Sledge ($2.92)

At first glance I thought these odds were too far askew, Collingwood has done little wrong since Round 3 and won 5 on the trot.  They are also probably the AFL’s best travellers, even though many bemoan the fact they do so little of it.  On the other hand their opposition are flying only dropping a game to the Hawks, their performance last week was outstanding and they have a very balanced line up with few injuries.  The Collingwood injuries make this a tough one especially with the loss of Reid and Swan and for that reason my selection is Adelaide.  Notwithstanding that one cannot ignore the Pies travelling record and would suggest they are worth a shekel if it gets out to $3.00.


The Master’s Apprentices ($34.00) vs The Apprentice as Master ($1.02)

Sheeds up against his star pupil, about the only point of interest.  Essendon to win.


The Evil Spirit ($1.30) vs Got Some Merrett ($4.10)

The pundits demanded Daniel Merrett to go back – a bag of first quarter goals set them quiet again.  By the same token not really a game to make judgments on.  Meanwhile the Kangas failed against a team they were expected to win against, maybe they are not the form metre they were last year – winning what they should but not surprising anyone against the elite.  They are back in their Loungeroom against the Lions who are struggling on the road and they should win.


Where have the wheels gone? ($1.08) vs Neeld Down ($12.50)

The bandwagon was chock-o-block for the Blues, but it has well and truly ground to a halt.  A number of mitigating factors with respect to performances, however clubs with premiership aspirations work on balancing their list in order to establish depth.  The last two weeks have exposed that the Blues don’t bat very deep.  On the other hand the Dees have been proving that all year.  Last year these two team served up a netball match (apologies to netballers, they have more contact).  Both clubs have dispensed with some of the collision challenged players from their line ups this week.  Melbourne will be out to show their physical presence as a result of the comments made by Carlton players after last year’s dance and maybe even to save themselves and their coach.  One suspects the Blues will do the same – but let’s not get too excited – that should be the minimum expectation every week in this competition.  The Blues should win this, but there is certainly trepidation, mind you no money could back the Demons.


The Corporation ($1.42) vs Single Figures ($3.30)

Get Stuffed Lyon is still looking for that magic where 8 goals wins more games than it loses, on the other hand West Coast average 17 goals a game.  Nuff Said – West Coast to win.  On the odds front though, the Derby (like the showdown) does have a history of not going to form, so the $3.30 on offer is a fair price.


Group 1 Racing

The Doomben 10,000 this weekend – the race was named as such when prizemoney was £10,000 – times have changed and the sprinters are scampering for a share of $650,000.  The WFA conditions should suit Sea Siren again, however there is rain in Brisbane and the prospect of a less than perfect surface has me excited about Temple of Boom.  However now that Beaded has returned to form she rarely misses out on a place (23 from 26) the $13 on offer is a good each-way punt.


Go Blues, Go Friars,

Cheers, Sal

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