Almanac Rugby League – State of Origin: All to play for

Never has the ‘just taking it one game at a time’ line been so absurd as this week. There’s absolutely everything to play for in both the men’s and women’s State of Origin games tonight and tomorrow night. Here’s the situation.

 

Men’s Game 2

The NSW Blues simply have to win in Melbourne tonight to keep the 2024 series alive and force a decider at Lang Park in mid-July. Their somewhat revamped lineup looks stronger on paper than the Game 1 squad but the challenge is to gel quickly and effectively under the intense pressure of no second chances.

 

The inclusion of Mitchell Moses, Latrell Mitchell, Cameron Murray and Dylan Edwards has evoked great hopes south of the Tweed. And probably rightly so given their individual records. Moses was instrumental in the Blues winning Game 3 last year, Mitchell has a proven track record at Origin level, Murray is the modern version of ‘Mr Perpetual Motion’ and Edwards has been a dominant force in the NRL for the past few seasons.

 

But will all of that be enough? Will they integrate into a side that has a number of different faces from when they last played at this level? In particular, will the Moses/Luai combination click? Can they inspire enough points from a side that struggled to score in Game 1? Answer: potentially, ‘yes’; probably ‘50/50’.

 

The Maroons have made only forced changes but have raised eyebrows by going back to very experienced but older Origin soldiers in Felise Kaufusi and Kurt Capewell to plug the gaps. What about using David Fifita and/or Beau Femor with a view to the future? Interesting! And is it wise to slot Reece Walsh straight back into the side after he hasn’t played a full game in at least a month?

 

In their favour, Queensland have a second chance should things not go well in Melbourne. But make no mistake, they’d love nothing more than to wrap up the series tonight. They’ll be hoping to win through the middle, allowing DCE and Tom Dearden to unleash their scintillating back line in attack once again and then grind the Blues down with smothering defence. Being the more settled side, you’d expect them to find their groove sooner and more effectively.

 

But footy in general, and Origin in particular, doesn’t always play out according to expectations. My feeling is that NSW will come out at a million miles an hour and attempt to rattle up quick points to force Queensland into playing catch up footy which tends to invite mistakes.

 

There is a very fine line between winning and losing at this level and I expect it to play out that way tonight. Will it come down ultimately to a Mitchell moment of magic, a Hammer blow by the graceful flyer, a DCE decision that deceives the opposition, or an evasive Edwards engagement to settle the issue? Whatever, it should be a ripper!

 

Prediction: Queensland by less that 6.

 

Women’s Game 3

The initial three match series in the women’s competition reaches its climax tomorrow night with Game 3 in Townsville. With the series level at 1-1, the equation is very simple. The winner takes it all, as someone once said (or sang).

 

NSW were kicking themselves when they let the unloseable slip from their grasp at the death in Game 2. A win then and there would have wrapped up the series. Now they have to do it all over again. In enemy territory as well. The Maroons must still be wondering how they’re still in this series. They’ve been outplayed for about 80% of the first two games but they go into this match on an equal footing. The question now is, can they take advantage of their luck and come from virtual extinction to steal the chocolates. (That’s a terrible mixed metaphor, I know.)

 

NSW will play an expansive game using their multi-pronged options both up the middle and out wide. Queensland will go the grind and look to capitalise on the odd counterattack based around Brigginshaw, Aiken and Upton. The Maroons will also hope for a partisan home crowd to intimidate the Blues while the latter will hope to silence the locals through early scoreboard pressure.

 

Prediction: The footy gods can be cruel which, in this case, would mean that the Blues will be thwarted. But cold reality tells us that talent across the park wins out in the end. NSW by 10+.

 

Let the games begin!

 

 

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