Almanac Rugby League – 2022 NRL Round 18: Into the home straight…

 

 

 

With State of Origin now out of the way we’re into the home straight of the NRL season with just eight rounds to go before the finals. By my reckoning there are still eleven teams who are technically in the running to make the finals. Realistically the Panthers, Cowboys, Storm and Sharks appear to be safe for September while the Broncos and Eels look to be probables. That leaves the Rabbitohs, Sea Eagles, Dragons, Roosters and Raiders fighting for the last two spots. Let the eliminations begin!

 

Round 18 starts tomorrow night with the Cowboys hosting the Sharks. The second placed Cowboys will be hurt by absences due to injuries (Taulagi and McLean) and Origin fatigue (Holmes and Nanai) as well as having Dearden and Gilbert backing up from Wednesday night. By contrast, the Sharks get Hynes and Rudolf back with NSW Blue reserve Talakai on the bench. In this situation you’d fancy the Sharks for whom a win would take them up to equal second – that’s called incentive. But the Cows aren’t second for no reason and, at home, you can expect a big effort from them. I suspect that their absentees will be too much of a challenge to overcome with the Sharks to take the points.

 

Later in the evening the Eels take on the Warriors. Junior Paulo is listed to back up from Origin duties for the home side. I expect this to play out according to their respective ladder positions with the Eels too strong up front allowing Moses and Brown to attack the retreating defence line before unleashing the likes of Sivo and Gutherson out wide. I just can’t see the Warriors mustering enough scoring opportunities to threaten the Eels. The letdown after their recent emotional homecoming will also be a hurdle to try to overcome.

 

The Roosters v Dragons game on Saturday afternoon is possibly the most important match of the weekend. Put simply, the Roosters can’t afford to lose if they want to stay in touch with the eight; if the Dragons want to be taken seriously they have to win games like this one against a fellow contender. The Roosters have named all four Origin players to take the field while the Dragons have Hunt returning. On paper it looks a simple choice – the Roosters have too much firepower all over the park and yet the ladder suggests that the Saints have been doing ok. But I’ve questioned the credentials of the Dragons previously and their poor effort last weekend against the Broncos reinforced my opinion – I think they’re pretenders. The Roosters for me.

 

In the early evening the Sea Eagles are at home at ‘Brookie’ to face the Knights. Returning Origin players cancel each other out in numbers so no advantage there. Manly have the opportunity to consolidate a top eight spot and I expect that playing at home will be the added impetus to propel them to victory. The Knights have the forward pack to win the battle in the middle but the halves cannot seem to find the organisation and execution to finish off the job; Manly’s pack is honest and its backline has speed and venom. I’ll go with the home side.

 

The Titans v Broncos game looks like a mismatch if we go by ladder positions but the ‘little brother’ Gold Coast men have a habit of getting under ‘big brother’ Brisbane’s skin. The Broncos will pretty much use last week’s exciting combination while their Origin players are either rested (Cobbo and Capewell) or on the bench (Oates and Carrigan); the Titans continue to shuffle about, seemingly unable to find the right combination. Don’t be surprised if this is a close one where it may all come down to the experience of Adam Reynolds to see the Broncos home.

 

In Sunday’s battle of the big cats, it will be one way traffic with the Panthers inflicting more woe on the Wests Tigers. Official team lists say that the Panthers will rest their Origin stars but I’ll believe it when I see it. Even if they do, their depth will be enough to win comfortably. The best thing I can say for the Tigers is that Adam Doueihi is finally in his correct place at No. 6 where he was most effective last season. To balance that, is Hastings out of place at No. 13? The Panthers will power on to the minor premiership.

 

The Storm v Raiders game at AAMI Park is the other key fixture for the weekend. It’s now or never for the Raiders – lose this one and it’s season over. In their favour is that they’re meeting a vulnerable Storm side that is in a rut and has key players suspended, backing up from Origin or under a cloud – Smith, Munster, Papenhuyzen, Kaufusi, Bromwich (K) and Grant. So the opportunity is there for Canberra. But, IF Melbourne takes the field as listed, then it’s a different proposition. The pack and the spine are intact which means that the bear, the flair and the dare will be there – and we know what they can do in combination. My gut says that Canberra can start to prepare for next year.

 

Finally, the Bulldogs play host to the improving Rabbitohs. The latter can consolidate their spot in the top eight with a win while the Doggies will want to play the role of finals spoiler. Souths have the personnel and the capacity to run away with this as long as they concentrate on playing the ball – attention Walker and Mitchell! Top four might be out of the question but the potential to go well into September is there for the taking. The Dogs deserve credit for their recent efforts and can be expected to give it a real go but they’re up against a bit too much this weekend.

 

So my winners this week are the Sharks, Eels, Roosters, Sea Eagles, Broncos, Panthers, Storm and Rabbitohs.

 

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Our writers are independent contributors. The opinions expressed in their articles are their own. They are not the views, nor do they reflect the views, of Malarkey Publications.

 

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